Your thoughts?

[KarmaDope]

Early in a $24+$2 MTT on Tilt (I don't have HH so going from memory)

It's Level 1. We have won one hand and are slightly above our starting stack at 3060. Villain has his starting stack of 3000. Blinds are 15/30.

We have in early position and raise to 150. One caller in position.

Flop is . We bet 150 and villain raises to 750. We call.

Turn is the . We check and Villain bets 1080.

Where do we go from here?

[ChipRich]

Make it 90 pre, keep pot smaller. (unless there was limpers)?

....if yout first into the pot 3x is fine.

Then bet like 120 on flop and go from there.

[amcgrath1uk]

gotta agree. Been doing this a lot recently. 3bb raise the entire way through tournaments.

fwiw I probably fold to his overshove, and outplay him later on

[daviebhoy]

Where do we go from here?

Looks a lot like a set. This is the first hand he has played and he is calling 5BB raise from EP so you probably have to give him credit for at least AK/KQ. You are behind to 66/88/KK/AA so I think you can let this one go this early on. With no info I fold flop raise as it looks like he is trying to get your stack.

I agree with 3xBB raise. 5xBB raise in EP screams big hand which is only likely to get called by another big hand. You shouldn't worry too much about playing AK multiway either.

[Jon MW]

Disclaimer: I know the result
But I think I can still be objective with my analysis.


The hand range I put the villain on:

Likely:     AK, AA, KK, 88, 66, KQ
Possible: 99, 1010, JJ, QQ, KJ
Unlikely: there are several hands you're beating, but without any history to go on I don't think you could reasonably take these hands into account.

So you're losing to 4 hands
and beating 6 hands

But as only 1 of the hands you're beating is in the likely range I'd say this tips the balance to having to fold.

Especially given how many chips folding (on the flop or the turn) leaves you with compared to the current blind levels.

[Simon Galloway]

5xBB raise in EP screams big hand which is only likely to get called by another big hand.

Why only another big hand?  If I am going to fish for a big flop with a ropy holding, I prefer it if oppo has a big hand. It makes it more likely they will play for stacks when I hit the flop twice.  No point in going fishing, hitting gin on the flop/turn and oppo not having enough of a hand to call with.

[TheChipPrince]

You can only be trapping by flatting his 600 flop raise.  If your folding on a 4 turn, fold the flop and save yourself 600 chips.

[Jon MW]

5xBB raise in EP screams big hand which is only likely to get called by another big hand.

Why only another big hand?  If I am going to fish for a big flop with a ropy holding, I prefer it if oppo has a big hand. It makes it more likely they will play for stacks when I hit the flop twice.  No point in going fishing, hitting gin on the flop/turn and oppo not having enough of a hand to call with.

That's what I was getting at with 'unlikely' hands.

How unlikely they actually are is a matter of opinion, but I don't think I'd necessarily put the opponent on hands like 5 7 or 7 9 (or air) without any history to go on.

That might be a weakness in my game generally but in this instance I would have folded on the flop anyway, so it wouldn't make that much of a difference here.

[dino1980]

Make it 90 pre, keep pot smaller. (unless there was limpers)?

....if yout first into the pot 3x is fine.

Then bet like 120 on flop and go from there.

This. As this got posted i suspect you were beat. But as played his flop bet is a pot sized raise, which means he probably just mashed the bet pot button rather than put any thought into his bet size. However, to me it's an odd raise size. The board isn't exactly scary and i suspect most villains would bet slightly smaller or potentially flat if they'd flopped massive here. I'd certainly weight his range more heavily towards K-10, K-J, K-Q, A-K than sets and 99-AA. Given that I probs flat and then check-jam this turn for value.

[Rookie (Rodney)]

3x pre, 150 is ridic. Now get it in. You should have made your mind up on the flop what you were going to do. If you call on the flop it must be because you think you are winning, so just get it in please and stop being results orientated.

[daviebhoy]

Simon[/url] Galloway link=topic=41374.msg944500#msg944500 date=1239785512]
Why only another big hand?  If I am going to fish for a big flop with a ropy holding, I prefer it if oppo has a big hand. It makes it more likely they will play for stacks when I hit the flop twice.  No point in going fishing, hitting gin on the flop/turn and oppo not having enough of a hand to call with.

Well, that is another reason not to telegraph your hand by raising so much in EP.

[KarmaDope]

General consensus seems to be that our call on the flop leads us to believe we're ahead and get it all in on the turn.

This is not my hand. It's one of Joobs's and I only had what information you have in the OP with her already calling the flop. I was adamant that she was ahead and that she should call the turn to get it all in on the river. She did.

The river was the  and it all went in. Villain showed    for the rivered set.

I put it up here because Joobs was adamant that she was behind on the turn for some reason and I wanted your views on what she should have done. FWIW, I think she completely butchered the hand, but I get it in the same way and probably the same result.

[AlexMartin]

Make it 90 pre, keep pot smaller. (unless there was limpers)?

....if yout first into the pot 3x is fine.

Then bet like 120 on flop and go from there.

This. As this got posted i suspect you were beat. But as played his flop bet is a pot sized raise, which means he probably just mashed the bet pot button rather than put any thought into his bet size. However, to me it's an odd raise size. The board isn't exactly scary and i suspect most villains would bet slightly smaller or potentially flat if they'd flopped massive here. I'd certainly weight his range more heavily towards K-10, K-J, K-Q, A-K than sets and 99-AA. Given that I probs flat and then check-jam this turn for value.

+100000

he has put so little thoght into his flop raise. He has AA or you have him crushed.

[Jon MW]

General consensus seems to be that our call on the flop leads us to believe we're ahead and get it all in on the turn.

This is not my hand. It's one of Joobs's and I only had what information you have in the OP with her already calling the flop. I was adamant that she was ahead and that she should call the turn to get it all in on the river. She did.

The river was the  and it all went in. Villain showed    for the rivered set.

I put it up here because Joobs was adamant that she was behind on the turn for some reason and I wanted your views on what she should have done. FWIW, I think she completely butchered the hand, but I get it in the same way and probably the same result.

[    ] This is exactly how Joobie remembers the hand playing out
[    ] Joobie wanted this hand on the hand analysis board.   
[ X ] Sharplea is in trouble