Omaha - Nuts on the turn. Decision on river.

[EvilPie]

icefisherxXx ($87.80)
iamthefool ($189)
ISuckSoHard ($196)
fatony88 ($20)
Evilpie2 ($145)
RaiseUfool ($138)

icefisherxXx posts (SB) $0.50
iamthefool posts (BB) $1

Dealt to Evilpie2
ISuckSoHard raises to $3.50
fold,
Evilpie2 raises to $8
fold, fold, fold,
ISuckSoHard calls $4.50

FLOP ($17.50)
check,
Evilpie2 bets $13
ISuckSoHard calls $13

TURN ($43.50)
check,
Evilpie2 bets $37
ISuckSoHard calls $37

RIVER ($117)

ISuckSoHard bets $117 ($87.15 effective)

Evilpie2

Oppo playing 32/26 over 170 hands

I've got a couple of notes on the guy.

1 - seems to pick up on weakness and bluff
2 - may be worth check on turn to bluff raise river
3 - doesn't mind getting it in with a draw

I can tell you now that I called so I know how it ends but is it the correct call?

[boldie]

yuck, you did everything right IMO...the river just sucks.


How does oppo percieve you? That would be the main question I'd ask myself before I call or fold.

[Karabiner]

Sorry to disagree, but I think it's a clear fold here.

What can oppo have here that you are beating ?

[GreekStein]

Sorry to disagree, but I think it's a clear fold here.

What can oppo have here that you are beating ?

I agree with Karabiner - it's a fold for me. The only hand we're ever beating is overplayed KQ10 type hands that have decided to go berserk on the river which is very rare imo, especially at $.50/1. An intelligent player might turn the bare  / into a bluff here but in this spot I don't expect villain to be bluffing often enough to make calling profitable.
 

[EvilPie]

Sorry to disagree, but I think it's a clear fold here.

What can oppo have here that you are beating ?

I agree with Karabiner - it's a fold for me. The only hand we're ever beating is overplayed KQ10 type hands that have decided to go berserk on the river which is very rare imo, especially at $.50/1. An intelligent player might turn the bare  / into a bluff here but in this spot I don't expect villain to be bluffing often enough to make calling profitable.
 

I've only played about 2.5k hands at .50/1 but I'm seeing this a lot. There's a few hyper aggressive players who build stacks at a ridic rate by making these moves. There's a lot of weak players out there and these guys seem good at finding spots to outplay them.

Do you not think the notes I've got make this a call?

Note 1 says he picks up on weakness and bluffs. Now I've not played this hand weakly by any means but if like Boldie says he perceives me as weak the bluff is more likely. My stats are far from aggro so this is possible.

Note 3 says that he doesn't mind getting it in with a draw. Would he not check/raise the turn if he had a draw trying to take the pot there and then rather than wait to hit and try to get me off it?

[GreekStein]

Sorry to disagree, but I think it's a clear fold here.

What can oppo have here that you are beating ?

I agree with Karabiner - it's a fold for me. The only hand we're ever beating is overplayed KQ10 type hands that have decided to go berserk on the river which is very rare imo, especially at $.50/1. An intelligent player might turn the bare  / into a bluff here but in this spot I don't expect villain to be bluffing often enough to make calling profitable.
 

I've only played about 2.5k hands at .50/1 but I'm seeing this a lot. There's a few hyper aggressive players who build stacks at a ridic rate by making these moves. There's a lot of weak players out there and these guys seem good at finding spots to outplay them.

Do you not think the notes I've got make this a call?

Note 1 says he picks up on weakness and bluffs. Now I've not played this hand weakly by any means but if like Boldie says he perceives me as weak the bluff is more likely. My stats are far from aggro so this is possible.

Note 3 says that he doesn't mind getting it in with a draw. Would he not check/raise the turn if he had a draw trying to take the pot there and then rather than wait to hit and try to get me off it?

Hi Matt,

To me your notes just seem to indicate he's one of the better players at .5/1 rather than spewy.

Also what do you mean he is keen to get it in with a draw....we all are with big draws in PLO aren't we? He might checkraise you on the flop but c-raising the turn is ugly ugly ugly on this board and I'd never expect that with a drawing hand. You are bet folding here approx 0% of the time imo and he must know this.

I doubt he's calling your turn bet out of position without a very big combo draw at least and he's not flatting again with a made hand like a set (unless he's 100% you have AA and is looking for a card to get you off your hand - unlikely though imo) as he'll be folding or getting them in at this point (the latter being most likely).

He has to lead all in on the river if he's hit as you're checking behind him on this river like 100% of the time.

I'd be interested to know what your thought process was pre-flop and the thoughts behind your bet sizing on each street.

[EvilPie]

Sorry to disagree, but I think it's a clear fold here.

What can oppo have here that you are beating ?

I agree with Karabiner - it's a fold for me. The only hand we're ever beating is overplayed KQ10 type hands that have decided to go berserk on the river which is very rare imo, especially at $.50/1. An intelligent player might turn the bare  / into a bluff here but in this spot I don't expect villain to be bluffing often enough to make calling profitable.
 

I've only played about 2.5k hands at .50/1 but I'm seeing this a lot. There's a few hyper aggressive players who build stacks at a ridic rate by making these moves. There's a lot of weak players out there and these guys seem good at finding spots to outplay them.

Do you not think the notes I've got make this a call?

Note 1 says he picks up on weakness and bluffs. Now I've not played this hand weakly by any means but if like Boldie says he perceives me as weak the bluff is more likely. My stats are far from aggro so this is possible.

Note 3 says that he doesn't mind getting it in with a draw. Would he not check/raise the turn if he had a draw trying to take the pot there and then rather than wait to hit and try to get me off it?

Hi Matt,

To me your notes just seem to indicate he's one of the better players at .5/1 rather than spewy.

Also what do you mean he is keen to get it in with a draw....we all are with big draws in PLO aren't we? He might checkraise you on the flop but c-raising the turn is ugly ugly ugly on this board and I'd never expect that with a drawing hand. You are bet folding here approx 0% of the time imo and he must know this.

I doubt he's calling your turn bet out of position without a very big combo draw at least and he's not flatting again with a made hand like a set (unless he's 100% you have AA and is looking for a card to get you off your hand - unlikely though imo) as he'll be folding or getting them in at this point (the latter being most likely).

He has to lead all in on the river if he's hit as you're checking behind him on this river like 100% of the time.

I'd be interested to know what your thought process was pre-flop and the thoughts behind your bet sizing on each street.

Interesting points. I guess if he's check raising a draw he's doing it on the flop rather than turn when his equity drops dramatically.

Pre flop tbh I don't exactly love my hand. Yeah it's aces but if I pot it I'm face up with no flush draws or anything.

I don't mind getting the lot in pre but I don't want to be playing a big pot against a difficult oppo even with position unless I make a set. I make it $8 because I want to raise the hand but don't want to make it too obvious that I've got AA. This oppo knows what he's doing and at this level everyone pots as soon as they see AA.

The flop bet is intended to keep him interested and give him a chance to bluff. I don't want to check and give a free card. I want it to look like I'm thinking about my bet rather than just hitting 'pot'. I want to give him a half decent price to hit something but not a price so that if he hits I've made a mistake.

Now that I've got such a strong hand I'm also trying to preserve some of my stack until the river so that he has a chance to try to push me off it. If I pot now and then again on the turn I've only got $60 left at the end and he might not think he can get me off a $220 pot.

Basically I'm trying to lull him in to doing something rash but when he finally does it's with the worst possible card.

His bet on the river didn't have any thought either. It was instasnap shoveaments. Do you think that if he hits his flush he maybe thinks a bit more about his bet size? Could the instashove indicate he was planning to shove any red or blue card?

[GreekStein]

Interesting points. I guess if he's check raising a draw he's doing it on the flop rather than turn when his equity drops dramatically.

Pre flop tbh I don't exactly love my hand. Yeah it's aces but if I pot it I'm face up with no flush draws or anything.

I don't mind getting the lot in pre but I don't want to be playing a big pot against a difficult oppo even with position unless I make a set. I make it $8 because I want to raise the hand but don't want to make it too obvious that I've got AA. This oppo knows what he's doing and at this level everyone pots as soon as they see AA.

The flop bet is intended to keep him interested and give him a chance to bluff. I don't want to check and give a free card. I want it to look like I'm thinking about my bet rather than just hitting 'pot'. I want to give him a half decent price to hit something but not a price so that if he hits I've made a mistake.

Now that I've got such a strong hand I'm also trying to preserve some of my stack until the river so that he has a chance to try to push me off it. If I pot now and then again on the turn I've only got $60 left at the end and he might not think he can get me off a $220 pot.

Basically I'm trying to lull him in to doing something rash but when he finally does it's with the worst possible card.

His bet on the river didn't have any thought either. It was instasnap shoveaments. Do you think that if he hits his flush he maybe thinks a bit more about his bet size? Could the instashove indicate he was planning to shove any red or blue card?

Whatever your 3-bet size pre he is going to think you have aces unless you balance your 3-bet range well and have played with him often. If you do 3-bet a wider range I don't mind the play, otherwise I think I prefer to flat this deep.

On the flop it's so unlikely he's going to try and bluff what is a small pot, as he would be committing suicide doing so OOP against a reraiser on this board.

Try and get as much in as possible imo. It's not about keeping him interested, its about trying to make him put as much money in as possible with this much behind with a draw or not. He's not getting funky with random air and floating you, he's calling with diamonds and wraps etc. This is a good instance to hit that pot button imo though I do agree with you it is hugely overused in PLO - not that I'm complaining of course. The more you leave him behind the less likely he is to bluff you.

Without previous experience I would read nothing into the instashove.

[EvilPie]

Thanks for the input Cos. Much appreciated.

I'll dig out the HH later and post the last bit with what he was holding.

I'll be interested to see what you and others think of his play.

[GreekStein]

Thanks for the input Cos. Much appreciated.

I'll dig out the HH later and post the last bit with what he was holding.

I'll be interested to see what you and others think of his play.

No worries. I like big people.

[EvilPie]

Evilpie2 calls $87.15 (AI)

Evilpie2 shows
(Flop 94.6%, Turn 90.0%)

ISuckSoHard shows
(Flop 5.4%, Turn 10.0%)

Evilpie2 wins $288

So what do we think of oppos play?

He may have thought he was ahead on the flop with his ace but when I pot the turn he must know what I've got and that he's not going to win.

Therefore he's just setting up the bluff.

Do we think he was shoving any river?

I'm interested in the hand as much from oppos point of view as mine. Do these moves often work? Obviously they go wrong sometimes but do the times they work pay us off long term?

Everybody thought I should pass which if that's the case makes his move brilliant. He's only being called by a flush and there's a strong chance that I've not got that.

[GreekStein]

He's a fucking idiot.

[EvilPie]

He's a fucking idiot.

lol.

Sound analysis mate.

[GreekStein]

He's a fucking idiot.

lol.

Sound analysis mate.

Ha sorry Matt. I assumed from your notes that he was creative but good.

I just hate his play. I gotta get to bed so I won't do Mantis style paragraphs on this one.

1) He should fold pre
2) Even folding to the rr pre is close.
3) On the flop he should pass
4) On the turn what the hell is he thinking. His call to bluff you is so -EV it's ridiculous OOP.
5) You should amend your notes on him
6) Hats off, you knew him better than us, wp.
7) You're big.

[EvilPie]

He's a fucking idiot.

lol.

Sound analysis mate.

Ha sorry Matt. I assumed from your notes that he was creative but good.

I just hate his play. I gotta get to bed so I won't do Mantis style paragraphs on this one.

1) He should fold pre
2) Even folding to the rr pre is close.
3) On the flop he should pass
4) On the turn what the hell is he thinking. His call to bluff you is so -EV it's ridiculous OOP.
5) You should amend your notes on him
6) Hats off, you knew him better than us, wp.
7) You're big.

Way ahead of you there mate. It was whilst amending my notes on him after my session that I realised just how bad his play was.

Thought I'd post it to make sure it wasn't actually brilliant but I hadn't realised.

Thanks again for the input.