Hand from Venetian $550 tourney,done tikay styleeeeeeeeeee

[LuckyLloyd]

As far as your idea of pushing goes, it probably works a lot of the time - would you do the same if the opponents were all limpers and your stack size in proportion i.e 20bbs or so?

I'd do it quicker tbh.

[outragous76]

I think Lloyd is picking up on quite an important concept here - and this is one of the reasons Annette15 was so succesful because she was ahead of the curve.

The hero has 50bb's

If we shove - (and can even be guaranteed that the 10BB stack will call) - we dont mind the price we are getting on the action in the situation - and losing the hand makes no real difference in tournament terms - 50bb 40 bb?!?!?!?!?!  Pot-tay-toe/pot-tar-toe


There will also be times when we get 100% folds - and occasonally wll run into KK and still have 30% equity in the hand

I am too late in the thread to give my opinion - but i like this level of thinking

[MANTIS01]

I think Lloyd is picking up on quite an important concept here - and this is one of the reasons Annette15 was so succesful because she was ahead of the curve.

The hero has 50bb's

If we shove - (and can even be guaranteed that the 10BB stack will call) - we dont mind the price we are getting on the action in the situation - and losing the hand makes no real difference in tournament terms - 50bb 40 bb?!?!?!?!?!  Pot-tay-toe/pot-tar-toe


There will also be times when we get 100% folds - and occasonally wll run into KK and still have 30% equity in the hand

I am too late in the thread to give my opinion - but i like this level of thinking

Yeah, good pot-tay-toe theory. We don't mind getting 20% of our stack in as a pretty big dog because 40bb is the same as 50bb in the end. Do we then push our 40bb stack hoping to get called by a 10bb stack because 30bb is the same as 40bb? When do we put the breaks on with this idea and realise that it is just basically spewy?

As for FE...if you see the value in this pot and will so willingly toss away 10bb's...why do we believe 5 villains...some of whom are desperate...wont see the value in this pot...and will be so reluctant to part with their 10bb's? Folding means they are still desperate and will have to push any hand now....so what's the real difference in tournament terms? The big disadvantage of this "ahead of the curve" strat is that any decent player will trap us for our whole stack before the level is over

[outragous76]

no - your point is rediculous

this is a specific situation where i am trying to suggest a theory - which certainly isnt spewy and is used with some success by some of the worlds best players

and as for your trapped comment - you can have more than 1 gear - and 1 style in your arsenal you know

I have no problem with you having opinions - but you dont have to play devils advocate to every single post you know. You can, if you like say what you would do! and then discuss. Not just down cast everyone leses views

[AlexMartin]

what Lloyd/Outrageous says here is 100% correct mantis, shoving is most def +EV given the pot, our equity when called and the relative likelihood of getting called by the diff stacks with vastly different ranges.

The point i think you are trying to make (in which i am in agreement) is that there is often more than one +EV play to make and its up to us to decide upon the best route to take.

In this instance, i would argue calling> shoving purely because if we are good we should be happy to do enough funky shit postflop to makeup the shortfall of actually trying to connect with A2dd oop.

[MANTIS01]

I'm playing devil's advocate in this one because we have the barest of information and think we know what's what at the table all of a sudden. The squeeze play works. But squeezing here is based on just pot-size. That one thing alone. So while you can prove there's value in the pot how can you prove it's the right time to squeeze? You've been at the table 30 mins, no clue who's doing what, you don't know stack sizes, you don't have ranges for any of the players, you haven't established any sort of image, but you would ship in your 54k fast. And that's quality poker? I reckon there'll be lots of better informed squeezing opportunities than this in the game so why is diving into this one so right? It's simply spewy. What would I do? Call and see if diamonds come down.

[hatthehole]

so i get the bit about if monda goes allin with a Ace 2 blue and he gets it in vs the range already described with 10bbs then its ok cos of all the dead monies.  I also get the fact that erry1 else is gunna fold heaps but like how often is the utg guy gunna fold (obv his range turns out to be super wide since he has A7 but is it safe to assume that ur average utg opener is this wide?  what i mean is obv this guy opens wide utg but u dont know this till after the hand, so is it really a good idea to model the hand on such a large range?). + u mite have to factor in sometimes ppl dont 3bet utg openers when they hold premiums cos they know how strong it looks.

so say utg is opening:  22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,A6o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o = 32.7% of hands
and calling our 50bb jam with: JJ+,AKs,AKo = 3% of hands

so 9.1% of the time we get it in A2s v JJ+,AKs,AKo for 2400x6 + 10x100 ante = 15,400 + 52,600 + 52,600 = 120,600

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    29.528%     28.50%    01.03%          64407420      2333880.00   { A2s }
Hand 1:    70.472%     69.44%    01.03%         156948948      2333880.00   { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

so 9.1% of the time our cEV wud be 120,600 x 0.295 = 35,577

the other 90.9% of the time depends on how often we get called elsewhere and for how many chips

so assuming erry1 else has 10bbs and has flatted the open with a range of :TT-22,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T6s+,96s+,85s+,75s+,65s,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,J9o+,T8o+,97o+,86o+,75o+,64o+,54o = 40.6%

and are going to get it in with the range described before of: TT-55,AJs-A7s,KQs,AJo-A8o,KQo =9% of hands

so chance of erry1 else folding ((40.6 - 9)/ 40.6 )^4 = 0.778^4 = 0.366

so 0.336 x 0.909 = 0.333 so 33.3% of the time we win the pot uncontested for a 14k chip increase

the remaining 57.6% of the time we get it in as in luckyloyds post :

  equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    37.848%     34.27%    03.58%         241759112     25249106.00   { A2s }
Hand 1:    62.152%     58.57%    03.58%         413211924     25249106.00   { TT-55, AJs-A7s, KQs, AJo-A8o, KQo }

where the pot will be 15.4k + 10k + 10k = 35.4k

and our cEV will be 0.378 * 35.4 + remaining stack of 42.6k = 56k

so (0.091* 35.5) + (0.333*(54+14)) + (0.576 * 56) = 58.1k

so jamming is +ev compared to folding by 4.1k

however i think vs ur avergage utg opener his range is much tighter and would personaly asign an opening range of: 22+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo =11.6 % of hands
and calling our 50bb jam with: JJ+,AKs,AKo = 3% of hands

so 25.9% of the time we get it in A2s v JJ+,AKs,AKo for 120,600

so now 0.366 * 74.1% =27.1% of the time we win the pot uncontested
and 47% of the time we get it in v 10bbs

so (0.259* 35.5) + (0.271*(54+14)) + (0.47 * 56) = 53.94

so applying a tighter range to the utg opener monda would be 600 chips worse off than folding

so I guess shoving here has a value of somewhere between minus 600 chips and plus 4100 chips using the above models.  Im all for taking edges when you can rather than folding for the "phantom edge" but tbh I dont think there is much edge in jamming here especially when you alternatively flat call which is generally accepted would also be a +ev play(?).  I also think that the flatting ranges of some of the callers would also be tighter (and stronger containg TT+)  and therefore more likely to get it in with us (although we make chips when we get it in, we make more when we win uncontested thus reducing our overall ev).  Also some of the callers are likely to have larger stacks than 10bbs and when we get it in with those stacks with poor equity its obv even worse, however we also get it in less often since the more chips they have the more reluctant they are to get it in - again this depends on assigning ranges.

vs a table of half decent players shoving here is terrible, vs a table of venetian baguettes its maybe ok sometimes but probably a worse play than just calling

postflop I think I play the same as monda.

[action man]

wow, mr middy A+

[LuckyLloyd]

so i get the bit about if monda goes allin with a Ace 2 blue and he gets it in vs the range already described with 10bbs then its ok cos of all the dead monies.  I also get the fact that erry1 else is gunna fold heaps but like how often is the utg guy gunna fold (obv his range turns out to be super wide since he has A7 but is it safe to assume that ur average utg opener is this wide?  what i mean is obv this guy opens wide utg but u dont know this till after the hand, so is it really a good idea to model the hand on such a large range?). + u mite have to factor in sometimes ppl dont 3bet utg openers when they hold premiums cos they know how strong it looks.

so say utg is opening:  22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,A6o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o = 32.7% of hands
and calling our 50bb jam with: JJ+,AKs,AKo = 3% of hands

so 9.1% of the time we get it in A2s v JJ+,AKs,AKo for 2400x6 + 10x100 ante = 15,400 + 52,600 + 52,600 = 120,600

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    29.528%     28.50%    01.03%          64407420      2333880.00   { A2s }
Hand 1:    70.472%     69.44%    01.03%         156948948      2333880.00   { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

so 9.1% of the time our cEV wud be 120,600 x 0.295 = 35,577

the other 90.9% of the time depends on how often we get called elsewhere and for how many chips

so assuming erry1 else has 10bbs and has flatted the open with a range of :TT-22,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T6s+,96s+,85s+,75s+,65s,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,J9o+,T8o+,97o+,86o+,75o+,64o+,54o = 40.6%

and are going to get it in with the range described before of: TT-55,AJs-A7s,KQs,AJo-A8o,KQo =9% of hands

so chance of erry1 else folding ((40.6 - 9)/ 40.6 )^4 = 0.778^4 = 0.366

so 0.336 x 0.909 = 0.333 so 33.3% of the time we win the pot uncontested for a 14k chip increase

the remaining 57.6% of the time we get it in as in luckyloyds post :

  equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    37.848%     34.27%    03.58%         241759112     25249106.00   { A2s }
Hand 1:    62.152%     58.57%    03.58%         413211924     25249106.00   { TT-55, AJs-A7s, KQs, AJo-A8o, KQo }

where the pot will be 15.4k + 10k + 10k = 35.4k

and our cEV will be 0.378 * 35.4 + remaining stack of 42.6k = 56k

so (0.091* 35.5) + (0.333*(54+14)) + (0.576 * 56) = 58.1k

so jamming is +ev compared to folding by 4.1k

however i think vs ur avergage utg opener his range is much tighter and would personaly asign an opening range of: 22+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo =11.6 % of hands
and calling our 50bb jam with: JJ+,AKs,AKo = 3% of hands

so 25.9% of the time we get it in A2s v JJ+,AKs,AKo for 120,600

so now 0.366 * 74.1% =27.1% of the time we win the pot uncontested
and 47% of the time we get it in v 10bbs

so (0.259* 35.5) + (0.271*(54+14)) + (0.47 * 56) = 53.94

so applying a tighter range to the utg opener monda would be 600 chips worse off than folding

so I guess shoving here has a value of somewhere between minus 600 chips and plus 4100 chips using the above models.  Im all for taking edges when you can rather than folding for the "phantom edge" but tbh I dont think there is much edge in jamming here especially when you alternatively flat call which is generally accepted would also be a +ev play(?).  I also think that the flatting ranges of some of the callers would also be tighter (and stronger containg TT+)  and therefore more likely to get it in with us (although we make chips when we get it in, we make more when we win uncontested thus reducing our overall ev).  Also some of the callers are likely to have larger stacks than 10bbs and when we get it in with those stacks with poor equity its obv even worse, however we also get it in less often since the more chips they have the more reluctant they are to get it in - again this depends on assigning ranges.

vs a table of half decent players shoving here is terrible, vs a table of venetian baguettes its maybe ok sometimes but probably a worse play than just calling

postflop I think I play the same as monda.

Good post. I would expect young players with an online tournament background to have extremely wide opening ranges when antes are in play. Though yes, I concede that for this to be good, I'm assuming he's opening too wide. Plenty to chew over, cheers.

[outragous76]

middy has spoken

/ thread! :-)

Good work tom

[celtic]

Who hacked into middy's account?

[daviebhoy]

I think there are other reasons to 3-bet here. The argument for not squeezing here is that it looks like an obvious spot to squeeze. This doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

I would be interested to hear what hands people think we should be 3-betting here ? Only premiums or are we squeezing with any pocket pair ? A suited ace doesn't seem like a bad hand to be making this play with. In general players don't 3-bet enough and they fold too often. I still like the 3-bet here but concede that I don't see much of a difference between 3-bet//shoving/calling. I think we should be making all these plays a percentage of the time. Usually calling, sometimes 3-betting and sometimes shoving.

As for getting funky on the flop 5-way to win it with ace high OOP - what ?

[LuckyLloyd]

In this instance, i would argue calling> shoving purely because if we are good we should be happy to do enough funky shit postflop to makeup the shortfall of actually trying to connect with A2dd oop.

Hmm. I think if we are good we'll tend to play it fairly straight postflop when oop in a five way pot.

[EvilPie]

so i get the bit about if monda goes allin with a Ace 2 blue and he gets it in vs the range already described with 10bbs then its ok cos of all the dead monies.  I also get the fact that erry1 else is gunna fold heaps but like how often is the utg guy gunna fold (obv his range turns out to be super wide since he has A7 but is it safe to assume that ur average utg opener is this wide?  what i mean is obv this guy opens wide utg but u dont know this till after the hand, so is it really a good idea to model the hand on such a large range?). + u mite have to factor in sometimes ppl dont 3bet utg openers when they hold premiums cos they know how strong it looks.

so say utg is opening:  22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,75s+,64s+,54s,A6o+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo,T9o,98o,87o,76o,65o = 32.7% of hands
and calling our 50bb jam with: JJ+,AKs,AKo = 3% of hands

so 9.1% of the time we get it in A2s v JJ+,AKs,AKo for 2400x6 + 10x100 ante = 15,400 + 52,600 + 52,600 = 120,600

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    29.528%     28.50%    01.03%          64407420      2333880.00   { A2s }
Hand 1:    70.472%     69.44%    01.03%         156948948      2333880.00   { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

so 9.1% of the time our cEV wud be 120,600 x 0.295 = 35,577

the other 90.9% of the time depends on how often we get called elsewhere and for how many chips

so assuming erry1 else has 10bbs and has flatted the open with a range of :TT-22,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T6s+,96s+,85s+,75s+,65s,A2o+,KTo+,QTo+,J9o+,T8o+,97o+,86o+,75o+,64o+,54o = 40.6%

and are going to get it in with the range described before of: TT-55,AJs-A7s,KQs,AJo-A8o,KQo =9% of hands

so chance of erry1 else folding ((40.6 - 9)/ 40.6 )^4 = 0.778^4 = 0.366

so 0.336 x 0.909 = 0.333 so 33.3% of the time we win the pot uncontested for a 14k chip increase

the remaining 57.6% of the time we get it in as in luckyloyds post :

  equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    37.848%     34.27%    03.58%         241759112     25249106.00   { A2s }
Hand 1:    62.152%     58.57%    03.58%         413211924     25249106.00   { TT-55, AJs-A7s, KQs, AJo-A8o, KQo }

where the pot will be 15.4k + 10k + 10k = 35.4k

and our cEV will be 0.378 * 35.4 + remaining stack of 42.6k = 56k

so (0.091* 35.5) + (0.333*(54+14)) + (0.576 * 56) = 58.1k

so jamming is +ev compared to folding by 4.1k

however i think vs ur avergage utg opener his range is much tighter and would personaly asign an opening range of: 22+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo =11.6 % of hands
and calling our 50bb jam with: JJ+,AKs,AKo = 3% of hands

so 25.9% of the time we get it in A2s v JJ+,AKs,AKo for 120,600

so now 0.366 * 74.1% =27.1% of the time we win the pot uncontested
and 47% of the time we get it in v 10bbs

so (0.259* 35.5) + (0.271*(54+14)) + (0.47 * 56) = 53.94

so applying a tighter range to the utg opener monda would be 600 chips worse off than folding

so I guess shoving here has a value of somewhere between minus 600 chips and plus 4100 chips using the above models.  Im all for taking edges when you can rather than folding for the "phantom edge" but tbh I dont think there is much edge in jamming here especially when you alternatively flat call which is generally accepted would also be a +ev play(?).  I also think that the flatting ranges of some of the callers would also be tighter (and stronger containg TT+)  and therefore more likely to get it in with us (although we make chips when we get it in, we make more when we win uncontested thus reducing our overall ev).  Also some of the callers are likely to have larger stacks than 10bbs and when we get it in with those stacks with poor equity its obv even worse, however we also get it in less often since the more chips they have the more reluctant they are to get it in - again this depends on assigning ranges.

vs a table of half decent players shoving here is terrible, vs a table of venetian baguettes its maybe ok sometimes but probably a worse play than just calling

postflop I think I play the same as monda.

So call then yeah?

[MANTIS01]

Internet poker players confuse me. Look how in depth that post is regarding the complexity of this situation. You guys take extensive notes about players, and use all the poker resource tools available to track their stats and playing tendencies. Then you produce complex equations which allow you to arrive at calling %’s to 3 decimal places. That is impressive. And it clearly gives most of you guys an edge in any random poker game you play. But when you sit down at that random live poker game you make a decision to push your whole stack based on some monies in the pot and a vague guess about unknown villains, what cards they have, and what they will do. I don’t get that. Complex theories to all Americans fold pair theories.

I agree with daviebhoy that we should mix things up. But this isn’t to build our overall stats that make up our Sharkscope ratings, it’s the first play we choose at this table. That’s a pretty significant thing to consider imo.