Overcall, shove or fold?

[MC]

Final table of a 45man on Stars, 7 paid with 6 left.

No reads apply, except perhaps we haven't seen any crazy play or anything...

This is more of a line-check than anything...

***** Hand History for Game 30668517008 ***** (Poker Stars)
$80000.00 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Monday, July 20, 03:03:57 ET 2009
Table 180755522 4 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Seat 1: Tuvaq1 ( $12855.00 USD )
Seat 2: epitomised ( $21725.00 USD )
Seat 3: frech21 ( $2610.00 USD )
Seat 4: renocash ( $22176.00 USD )
Seat 6: brookerT22 ( $3895.00 USD )
Seat 9: KaneTool ( $4239.00 USD )
Tuvaq1 posts ante of [$50.00 USD].
epitomised posts ante of [$50.00 USD].
frech21 posts ante of [$50.00 USD].
renocash posts ante of [$50.00 USD].
brookerT22 posts ante of [$50.00 USD].
KaneTool posts ante of [$50.00 USD].
Tuvaq1 posts small blind [$400.00 USD].
epitomised posts big blind [$800.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to epitomised [   ]
frech21 folds
renocash folds
brookerT22 raises ALL-IN [$3845.00 USD]
KaneTool folds
Tuvaq1 calls [$3445.00 USD]
epitomised.......

[TheChipPrince]

I would fold.  Tuvaq should never fold to your re-shove, but I guess thats not to say he won't.

Your either flipping or behind against him, theres far better spots than this.  

You will be investing in the sidepot against him twice the main pot so its not important what the intial raiser has.

[daviebhoy]

Tough spot. I think our decision depends on the payout structure - do you have it ?

[Cf]

Tough spot. I think our decision depends on the payout structure - do you have it ?

top heavy. 7th/6th are slight profits, but we need to be hitting the top 3 in these games.

I fold this hand. You could call, but you don't really have the price to be set mining against the other player who hasn't really shown any strength. If you get to check it down then you might win a showdown. But if the other guy bets then unless you've hit a 6 then you've lost a fair few chips.

[daviebhoy]

Assuming payout as :

1st  $145
2nd $110
3rd  $77
4th  $55
5th  $44
6th  $33

Then at start of hand we have $104 equity. If we bust both players in this hand it only increases by $22 to $126.

But, if we flat call and then fold on flop we only lose $3 of equity here if shortstack busts out and lose $6 when shortstack wins the hand and we don't put anything else into the pot.

I haven't calculated everything here but my feeling is that flatting and folding is very close as I think it gets checked down a lot and we flop a set some of the time and only occasionally pay off set over set type situations. Shoving is bad though as we walk into a trap way too often and we have no need to put our good position at risk at this time. Fold is probably the safe option.

[MC]

Pay out Structure:
1st  $154
2nd $110
3rd  $77
4th  $55
5th  $44
6th  $33
7th  $22

I thought it was close between flatting and folding too. I opted for the fold, turned out that they both had A9 suited but I guess that's a best case scenario, much more likely to be facing at least 3 overcards, sometimes 4 and sometimes an overpair.

Where does my decision change?

I guess 77 is a fold as well, but is perhaps 88 a call and 99+ a shove? What do ya think...

[daviebhoy]

After some back of a fag packet calculations assuming villains both have a range of [22+,A9s+,KQs,A9o+,KQo] :

Start : $106
Fold  : $105
Shove : $102.65
Shove player 2 never folds : $101.57
Call  : $104

I think I have been pretty conservative with the results aswell :

Call - get it all in and and we win                                           - 132.085 * .11 = 14.529
Call - player 2 folds flop and we win                                       - 118.357  *.11 = 13.02
Call - player 2 folds and we lose                                             - 97.683   *.11 = 10.75
call - we fold flop after putting no more money in player 1 wins - 101.330 *.33 = 33.43
call - we fold flop after putting no more money in player 5 wins - 97.683 *.33 = 32.24

I haven't added the times we call, flop a set, get the chips in and lose to player 2. I think this is a very small amount of the time.
Our equity after such a scenario is about $84 if anyone wants to factor this in or play with the percentages they think the above situations happen.

Using pokerstove I think you are probably about just about right with folding 77, calling 88 and pushing 99. It is very close though and we can probably fold 55, call 66/77 and shove 88 as ranges are bound to be wider than we have here :

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    34.459%     33.35%    01.11%       68123594628    2274317464.00   { 22+, A9s+, KQs, A9o+, KQo }
Hand 1:    34.459%     33.35%    01.11%       68123594628    2274317464.00   { 22+, A9s+, KQs, A9o+, KQo }
Hand 2:    31.083%     30.71%    00.37%       62745579384    755772592.00   { 66 }

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    33.527%     32.40%    01.12%       66199173156    2294725204.00   { 22+, A9s+, KQs, A9o+, KQo }
Hand 1:    33.527%     32.40%    01.12%       66199173156    2294725204.00   { 22+, A9s+, KQs, A9o+, KQo }
Hand 2:    32.947%     32.57%    00.38%       66530506272    778873168.00   { 77 }

[MC]

Interesting, thanks for Stoving that for me, appreciate that

At least I'm along the right kinda lines, good to confirm that.

[moonandback]

i think i shove here, the presence of two other short stacks greatly increases the chances of tuvaq folding imo (why is he just calling pf if he has a very good hand he should isolate no?) also if you do get called and lose you still have 10+ bb's and can probably grovel your way into 3rd easily enough and if your called and win then you should get it heads up with a chip lead all things being equal. i think a shove will induce a fold 50%+ of the time so shove > call and check it down > fold

[StuartHopkin]

Yeah I like the shove here in the belief that tuvaq will fold.

[daviebhoy]

Its easy to like the shove knowing he has A9 here. AA flats praying we shove from the BB.

[moonandback]

i agree tuvaq might flat with aces hoping for a squeeze but surely he isolates with AJ+ and 88+( i know i would be in his seat) he might flat with kings also but he has a ton more mediocre hands he will fold so i cant see how we are in bad shape with a shove we will get him to fold Ax and small pairs KQs type of hands often enough to make a shove profitable imho, and if he does call with the bottom half of his range we are pretty much flipping most of the time.

[daviebhoy]

I don't think he folds here often enough for it to be profitable. He is never folding 77+ or AQ+. He might fold A9-AJ/KQ. That is a might and it only makes up a small part of his range anyway.

dn

[moonandback]

I agree he doesnt fold AQ+ or 77+ but i dont think he flats with those either so that leaves his range at about Ax - AJ, 22-77 KQ and AA and maaaybe KK. think about it if you were tuvaq would you flat with 88,99,TT,JJ,QQ AQ or AK or would you shove to isolate ?? the more i think about this the more i am certain that shove >> fold.

[MC]

I don't think he folds here often enough for it to be profitable. He is never folding 77+ or AQ+. He might fold A9-AJ/KQ. That is a might and it only makes up a small part of his range anyway.

He's calling with 77+, AT+ and KQ imo

On the knowledge he is willing to call with A9 in this spot a shove looks good, but without this info you have to assume a flat is more likely to be strong trying to induce a shove, as most players I believe isolate in this spot with any semi-decent Ace and mid-pair etc