Near bubble and shallow river spot

[EvilPie]

Matt might have the right strat for a different game. But this isn't a different game. The tight bb smooths with a pair of 6's vs a wide range putting himself in a position where the pot size is equal to half his stack, he's oop, and he hates most flops. That's the sort of guy who's in the bb. This sort of guy will c-fold most flops and hence why the c-bet is fine.

Hadn't we may as well donk shove in to him then?

If we're planning to induce a flat then make him pass a better hand we could do this with atc. If we donk shove at least we have a chance to bink if he finds something to call with. Unless it's AA obv.

Just so you know the reason I pass here isn't because I need a better hand. My raising range from the cut off against a weak tight oppo is pretty much atc. If I make a raise with this hand it isn't necessarily because I think it's going to be ahead by the river, it's because I think he'll pass or if he doesn't I can make him pass later.

Against this weak oppo I would probably have raised him a few times already with much worse than A5

[AlexMartin]

tighty, i think you actually played this hand nigh on perfectly. On the river, i think seeing as you are worried about precisely 66, you need to weighup valueshoving against AA-JJ/A10/random 5 (v few in his range...discount cos of 65 possibility making up chunk of his 5's) to valuetowning yourself against 66 and a very rare 1010 (which im assuming even a tight bb is gonna 3ball). I think shove slightly > call on that basis but i think pre betsizing and flop check are fine v this guy ip. give yourself way more ways to win the hand by checking back imo.

[MANTIS01]

tighty, i think you actually played this hand nigh on perfectly. On the river, i think seeing as you are worried about precisely 66, you need to weighup valueshoving against AA-JJ/A10/random 5 (v few in his range...discount cos of 65 possibility making up chunk of his 5's) to valuetowning yourself against 66 and a very rare 1010 (which im assuming even a tight bb is gonna 3ball). I think shove slightly > call on that basis but i think pre betsizing and flop check are fine v this guy ip. give yourself way more ways to win the hand by checking back imo.

Can you explain that a bit more Alex. It seems to me that the turn dropping a 5 means the flop check in retrospect looks ok...but most of the time it wont come a 5. Let's say it comes a face card and bb leads, what do you do? The stack dynamics mean that ANY bet from bb is gonna be a sizeable % of our stack. How would you answer it? A face card + bet from tight bb prob equals fold...many other turn cards + bet from tight bb prob equals fold. If bb c-raises non 5/A turn it's fold. If bb c-folds turn we make zero extra $ for the flop check. So don't get how flop check gives us WAY more ways to win.

[AlexMartin]

villains range preflop is probably weighted towards something like QJs+/KJo+/A10o+/66+ plus some middling sc's (78s/910s etc). I would guess in reality its probably something like 55-99/A10/AJ/KQ. Basically before betting this flop we need to recognise that in has smacked his range and/or given him a hand he feels happy enough to go with now.

If we bet the flop anything reasonable (6k) into a 10k pot villain is 100% gonna shove all his pairs as he only has 15k back. Then we will then have to call with bottom pair + over plus bdfd getting better than 3:1 even when we know are def crushed. Bet folding would be spew.


Now for the rest of his range.

Villain doesnt make moves. On the turn we have position. On the turn if he checks we can bet with near 100% certainty we are not being bluffed and have the best of it so protect ourselves. Additionally, if the turn comes any card J or higher, we can rep far far more hands and get him to fold all his pp's, which we woulda been unable to on the turn. Also (and i know you will love this), we get to watch villain down 2 streets. Now overtly important but def can be factored in as a small +.

I know im waffling a bit but i think this is exactly the type of spot where we should use position to exploit a predictable player when the pot to stack ratio is small in an endgame mtt. To cbet blindy here is inferior to checking back imo.



disclaimer : i dont play donkaments v often so i could be talking nonsense. awaits response of LL + shreddies.

[MANTIS01]

I tried to like your line Alex, but I don't. First off your strat depends on villain checking to you twice because any bet from him on a non A/5 turn means he wins. And when there's 50% of the guy's stack in the middle I think the temptation for him to go after that money is pretty high so I don't think you can rely on 2 checks. Next, lots of turn cards allow him to improve to a made hand which beat you and/or improve to a semi-bluff hand which mean he can jam and again win the hand. If he doesn't improve, but the turn is a 10 or lower he still c-jams all the pairs he was c-jamming with on the flop so the action doesn't change....it's just a street later.

You've also gotta hope that the turn is the face card you can actually represent. I mean the reason we can feel confident with the trip 5's is we don't think villain believes our representation of the 2nd 5. There will be a lot of turn cards we wont be able to convincingly represent and so what was gonna happen on the flop is still gonna happen anyway. So really your strat is only better if villain checks twice, a face card arrives on the turn that you can realistically represent, that the face card doesn't hit villain even though it is in his range and your bet forces him to fold a better pair. I think checking the flop actually gives villain WAY more ways to win the hand so why not just simplify things by c-betting a perfect flop vs the perfect villain instead.

[daviebhoy]

I agree with Mantis. bet-fold > check-call. We hate bet/folding but this line allows us to take down the pot many more times than a check/call.

[AlexMartin]

I agree with Mantis. bet-fold > check-call. We hate bet/folding but this line allows us to take down the pot many more times than a check/call.

you cant bet fold. thats the point im making.

[T_Mar]

villains range preflop is probably weighted towards something like QJs+/KJo+/A10o+/66+ plus some middling sc's (78s/910s etc). I would guess in reality its probably something like 55-99/A10/AJ/KQ. Basically before betting this flop we need to recognise that in has smacked his range and/or given him a hand he feels happy enough to go with now.

If we bet the flop anything reasonable (6k) into a 10k pot villain is 100% gonna shove all his pairs as he only has 15k back. Then we will then have to call with bottom pair + over plus bdfd getting better than 3:1 even when we know are def crushed. Bet folding would be spew.


Now for the rest of his range.

Villain doesnt make moves. On the turn we have position. On the turn if he checks we can bet with near 100% certainty we are not being bluffed and have the best of it so protect ourselves. Additionally, if the turn comes any card J or higher, we can rep far far more hands and get him to fold all his pp's, which we woulda been unable to on the turn. Also (and i know you will love this), we get to watch villain down 2 streets. Now overtly important but def can be factored in as a small +.

I know im waffling a bit but i think this is exactly the type of spot where we should use position to exploit a predictable player when the pot to stack ratio is small in an endgame mtt. To cbet blindy here is inferior to checking back imo.



disclaimer : i dont play donkaments v often so i could be talking nonsense. awaits response of LL + shreddies.

Nice post!

[MANTIS01]

I agree with Mantis. bet-fold > check-call. We hate bet/folding but this line allows us to take down the pot many more times than a check/call.

you cant bet fold. thats the point im making.

I got that point Alex and I prob agree with it. But that's the worse case scenario and an eventuality that's not very common vs this type of player. So basing my strategy around that outcome doesn't work for me. The most likely scenario is this type of villain c-folds this type of flop imo. So I would prefer to strat for the most likely occurrence. There isn't going to be a perfect line out of this situation and often poker hands wont present one, but I do reckon you're gonna win the 10.5k in the middle many more times than you spew another 20k if you c-bet this guy.

[AlexMartin]

enjoying this mantis. basically, i think villain defines HIS range on the turn if he checks 2 streets oop. Given we cant bet/fold the flop and given this flop has (imo) smacked his range for stacking off, id like to be way more certain before putting anything more into it. FWIW i dont actually think checking back gives us WAY more ways to win the pot anymore, i just think its a better line here, but bet/call isnt terrible. I actually think shoving might be pretty good too.   

[MANTIS01]

Nah, I think we can rule out shoving. We only get called when we're beat. If we're planning on getting our chips in we may as well allow for the admittedly slim possibility of villain c-jamming big Aces we now dominate. After all, the pot is big enough for a spew and the stack sizes are set up nicely for a c-jam (prob why you want to strat against it so bad ). But there's nothing to say villain has the same awareness or ability to exploit such a chance that you might as villain. No need to give tight abc credit for having such heart imo. I'm less inclined to think the board smacked his stacking range because pushing pre seems more abc with middle pairs. I was surprised villain would smooth with 6-6 vs a wide range and so I reckon he does indeed c-fold lots of flops. Ultimately for your strat to work better we have to count on a 2nd check because all the times villain does bet we can't define his range at all and lose a pretty big pot we could easily have won.

[LuckyLloyd]

Other than the raise pre I don't mind it at all.  is a horrible hand to play unless it hits big even with position. What do you do here if villain shoves pre? Obv you have to pass. This is not ideal when you've invested nearly 15% of your stack with a hand that you thought was winning until it got looked up.

Your check on the flop is fine. You've not really got anything exciting and c bets are just too obvious. If he raises your c bet what do you do? Do you pass because you think you must be behind or do you shove because you think he's bluffing? I'm guessing you pass thus spewing more chips.

Villains play is awful. Why does he bet 2/3 of his stack on the end? Makes no sense at all and you were right to suspect you were beat.

If he shoves you snap call because it's so much more likely that he's bluffing.

Apart from the raise pre which I don't like I think you played it spot on.

thanks Matt

You highlight an issue I have problems with

We're six handed, as doubleup highlights a way off the bubble, and a bit below average

Can't just sit there and wait for premiums, the stack will get swallowed up. Of course I can resteal/shove light.

However I have to keep active, in position, and try to make progress. Would you be passing A5s in the cut off there?

Stack of 30k, 3.6k in the middle.

Shove preflop.

[LuckyLloyd]

villains range preflop is probably weighted towards something like QJs+/KJo+/A10o+/66+ plus some middling sc's (78s/910s etc). I would guess in reality its probably something like 55-99/A10/AJ/KQ. Basically before betting this flop we need to recognise that in has smacked his range and/or given him a hand he feels happy enough to go with now.

If we bet the flop anything reasonable (6k) into a 10k pot villain is 100% gonna shove all his pairs as he only has 15k back. Then we will then have to call with bottom pair + over plus bdfd getting better than 3:1 even when we know are def crushed. Bet folding would be spew.


Now for the rest of his range.

Villain doesnt make moves. On the turn we have position. On the turn if he checks we can bet with near 100% certainty we are not being bluffed and have the best of it so protect ourselves. Additionally, if the turn comes any card J or higher, we can rep far far more hands and get him to fold all his pp's, which we woulda been unable to on the turn. Also (and i know you will love this), we get to watch villain down 2 streets. Now overtly important but def can be factored in as a small +.

I know im waffling a bit but i think this is exactly the type of spot where we should use position to exploit a predictable player when the pot to stack ratio is small in an endgame mtt. To cbet blindy here is inferior to checking back imo.



disclaimer : i dont play donkaments v often so i could be talking nonsense. awaits response of LL + shreddies.

lol!

Agree with all of that. Given SPR, checking flop >> cbetting imo.

[MC]

Shove preflop.

Someone needs to spend some time using SNG wizard...

[Horneris]

I was gona be the first one to suggest shoving pre but then bottled it.

Shove pre.