Near bubble and shallow river spot

[MC]

We have too many chips to shove pre in the cutoff with this hand

[nirvana]

We have too many chips to shove pre in the cutoff with this hand

Yeah, but most of the time they can't call imo

[MC]

We have too many chips to shove pre in the cutoff with this hand

Yeah, but most of the time they can't call imo

Yeah but that's the point, most of the time they can't, but the ratio of times they can call and we are dead is too high in relation to our chip stack with 3 hands to fade.

[LuckyLloyd]

We have too many chips to shove pre in the cutoff with this hand

Yeah, but most of the time they can't call imo

Yeah but that's the point, most of the time they can't, but the ratio of times they can call and we are dead is too high in relation to our chip stack with 3 hands to fade.

Can you show me the math on this? Cheers.

[MANTIS01]

You don't really need math to work out pushing isn't any better than standard raising. You never jam any hand of strength into this situation, and so by doing that you expose your weakness to the players behind. We not only bugger up our aspiration to range balance again but we give inferior poker players an invitation to flip their chips with us because of the free information we hand them. Let's just outplay inferior players instead. Standard raising has already forced villain to make one mistake by calling oop with 6-6 despite stuff like SPR's. Checking the flop to combat against the SPR situation you create by betting is only ignoring the free information villain hands you. Playing the SPR's rather than playing the person is a mistake because you assume villain will play perfectly, and he already hasn't.

[doubleup]

You don't really need math to work out pushing isn't any better than standard raising.

You never jam any hand of strength into this situation, and so by doing that you expose your weakness to the players behind.

Pushing against the bb stack is quite close to being inexploitable (altho dont know the chips of btn and sb).  Any hand that calls a push, reraises a standard raise and its quite possible that some hands that wouldn't reraise as well.  I'm also pretty sure that some hands that wouldn't call a push will call to see the flop - whether they make a mistake after that, who knows.

I think it would be a dangerous assumption to assume that a push is always a weak hand.  The whole point of pushing fairly wide is that it's up to the opponent to decide if he wants to risk elimination.  Anyone employing this tactic is usually aware enough to know that their opponents would fairly quickly notice that a normal raise was a good hand and a push was a mediocre hand. 

[MANTIS01]

I agree that it's dangerous to assume a push is always a weak hand. This push isn't just a push though, it's 30k from the cut-off @ 800/1600 into a passive bb. Nobody would do that with a strong hand. You wouldn't get called often enough and you would never encourage this SPR situation that could encourage a villain to shove if you don't standard raise. So I think in terms of playing a tournament it is reasonable to assume hero isn't very strong if he shoves.

[AlexMartin]

I like to think i shove with all of my range (when im slightly lower in chips) in this spot. But the reality is i dont. Think mantis is right in general tbh regarding the majority of players.

[MC]

It's really difficult to use SNG Wizard with this OP as it's not a SNG but the maths still applies. I fiddled with it as much as I could, and the worst suited Ace it ever told me to shove in this spot was ATs.

[doubleup]

It's really difficult to use SNG Wizard with this OP as it's not a SNG but the maths still applies. I fiddled with it as much as I could, and the worst suited Ace it ever told me to shove in this spot was ATs.

harumph young ppl 2day can't do sums and when their glorified calculator doesn't work they are stumped....

[MC]

Lol, I said it's never a shove, and SNG wizard confirmed this in the formats that I was able to apply it to

How is that being stumped?

[nirvana]

If we shove though, we don't have difficult decisions later imo, and we have an Ace, and most of the time they can't call

[LuckyLloyd]

It's really difficult to use SNG Wizard with this OP as it's not a SNG but the maths still applies. I fiddled with it as much as I could, and the worst suited Ace it ever told me to shove in this spot was ATs.

Did you take into account how incorrect calling ranges will be live?

[MC]

If we shove though, we don't have difficult decisions later imo, and we have an Ace, and most of the time they can't call

"Most of the time they can't call", fine it might work most of the time, just not  enough of the time...it's a long term -EV shove as far as I'm concerned. Maybe not by a huge margin, shoving isn't horrible or anything, but definitely not better than the raise we put in in this hand

It's really difficult to use SNG Wizard with this OP as it's not a SNG but the maths still applies. I fiddled with it as much as I could, and the worst suited Ace it ever told me to shove in this spot was ATs.

Did you take into account how incorrect calling ranges will be live?

Surely this decreases the value of shoving, not increases it? As that means we're dominated more often?

[doubleup]

It's really difficult to use SNG Wizard with this OP as it's not a SNG but the maths still applies. I fiddled with it as much as I could, and the worst suited Ace it ever told me to shove in this spot was ATs.

Did you take into account how incorrect calling ranges will be live?

He can't do sums so its unlikely ; )

My attempt a sums - (obv risking mockery from MC if they sre wrong)

Hero is behind to 14% of hands

So if his opponents only call when he is behind he will get called 36% of the time (this is hugely unlikely in practice)

If he is called his equity against that range is 37.2%

The pot when called is 55200 of which hero has contributed 26600

So hero wins 64% of 3600 when not called - 2304

When he is called he gets 37.2% of 55200, which is 20534 or a loss of 6066 and this occurs 36% of the time, so a loss of 2184.

So pushing under the conditions above and assuming my sums are right is +ev