today

[bolt pp]

well it's not you saying it is it then?

first you say ask kieth, then quote tony bloom.

we were asking you.

if you're millionares like them it's a bit more applicable.

Surely it can be my opinion irrelevant of from who or where I learnt it. It's probably the most common way there is of acquiring knowledge, learning from people who know more about something than you do.

Ive been a punter for 12 years from when i was getting into catford at 16, my uncle owned greyhounds in the 80's at the stow and my dad is one of the best handicappers you could meet, has chopped more placepots from meetings with huge handicaps in for serious dough than you could count,  i know about as much as this game as i know about anything else and ive learned from other people you're right but ive also adapted a lot of my own ideas about the game, things i know, things ive learned, original concepts ive come up with etc and i know from my experience that saying: "laying back is rarely a good idea" is a statement i dont agree with at all, it goes against my personal experience of the game and my generic understanding of more broader concepts of which i'm aware.

Lets say for example i get a tip for from a good source about a 7/1 horse in a 7 runner race, no value E/W si i have £100 to win, all day it's lumped on and is 2/1 at the off, i go on betfair and lay it for a bottle.

I have an outlay of £300, a downside of £0 and an upside of £500, how can that not be a hugely +EV long term position to be in.

Ask kieth if you like, i'd be surprised if he agreed with such a constraining statement as: "laying back is rarely a good idea"

[Horneris]

TY.

Lay  Backer's
Odds  Backer's
Stake   Payout  Liability  
Strikemaster  2.56  £2.00  £5.12 £3.12  
Ref: Bet matched:  
  £2.00

[bolt pp]

frankie nicked that one, rare good ride by frankie

[chrisbruce]

Gutted

perfect race and then beaten by a horse that has done FA in its life.

[ ]  layed in running for a very healthy profit

Nice tip Baz u run as good as me

Rookie / Honeris -  WTF is that about posting your £2 lay

[iwillwinlots]

odds on fav, ul

[Karabiner]

well it's not you saying it is it then?

first you say ask kieth, then quote tony bloom.

we were asking you.

if you're millionares like them it's a bit more applicable.

Surely it can be my opinion irrelevant of from who or where I learnt it. It's probably the most common way there is of acquiring knowledge, learning from people who know more about something than you do.

Ive been a punter for 12 years from when i was getting into catford at 16, my uncle owned greyhounds in the 80's at the stow and my dad is one of the best handicappers you could meet, has chopped more placepots from meetings with huge handicaps in for serious dough than you could count,  i know about as much as this game as i know about anything else and ive learned from other people you're right but ive also adapted a lot of my own ideas about the game, things i know, things ive learned, original concepts ive come up with etc and i know from my experience that saying: "laying back is rarely a good idea" is a statement i dont agree with at all, it goes against my personal experience of the game and my generic understanding of more broader concepts of which i'm aware.

Lets say for example i get a tip for from a good source about a 7/1 horse in a 7 runner race, no value E/W si i have £100 to win, all day it's lumped on and is 2/1 at the off, i go on betfair and lay it for a bottle.

I have an outlay of £300, a downside of £0 and an upside of £500, how can that not be a hugely +EV long term position to be in.

Ask kieth if you like, i'd be surprised if he agreed with such a constraining statement as: "laying back is rarely a good idea"

Certainly when betting on golf, I find it invaluable to be able to lay back and I've been far more profitable since i could do that on BF.

I think Tony Bloom made a lot of his money on tennis and football and I would imagine that laying back on match-bets which are always going to be shortish odds would not be such an advantage.

So basically the bigger the price the greater the advantage in laying back imho.

[doubleup]

Lets say for example i get a tip for from a good source about a 7/1 horse in a 7 runner race, no value E/W si i have £100 to win, all day it's lumped on and is 2/1 at the off, i go on betfair and lay it for a bottle.

I have an outlay of £300, a downside of £0 and an upside of £500, how can that not be a hugely +EV long term position to be in.

If 2-1 is the correct price you are just reducing variance.  If it is too short then your +ev from the lay-off is independent from your 1st bet and if it is too long your lay-off is a loser.  So where does the huge +EV come from?

[thetank]

Rookie / Honeris -  WTF is that about posting your £2 lay

banter

[chrisbruce]

Rookie / Honeris -  WTF is that about posting your £2 lay

banter

Oh are they still at school?

[bolt pp]

Lets say for example i get a tip for from a good source about a 7/1 horse in a 7 runner race, no value E/W si i have £100 to win, all day it's lumped on and is 2/1 at the off, i go on betfair and lay it for a bottle.

I have an outlay of £300, a downside of £0 and an upside of £500, how can that not be a hugely +EV long term position to be in.

If 2-1 is the correct price you are just reducing variance.  If it is too short then your +ev from the lay-off is independent from your 1st bet and if it is too long your lay-off is a loser.  So where does the huge +EV come from?

so i'll just sit there and watch a horse ive backed @7/1 contract to 2/1 and do nothing about my position instead choosing to have a wank about how exciting it all is.

[kukushkin88]

Ul Barry, nasty to improve that much from his last run and find one too good.

[doubleup]

Lets say for example i get a tip for from a good source about a 7/1 horse in a 7 runner race, no value E/W si i have £100 to win, all day it's lumped on and is 2/1 at the off, i go on betfair and lay it for a bottle.

I have an outlay of £300, a downside of £0 and an upside of £500, how can that not be a hugely +EV long term position to be in.

If 2-1 is the correct price you are just reducing variance.  If it is too short then your +ev from the lay-off is independent from your 1st bet and if it is too long your lay-off is a loser.  So where does the huge +EV come from?

so i'll just sit there and watch a horse ive backed @7/1 contract to 2/1 and do nothing about my position instead choosing to have a wank about how exciting it all is.

Your answer entertaining tho it is, does not explain where the huge ev comes from.
Do you believe that the 2-1 is too short or not?

[bolt pp]

Lets say for example i get a tip for from a good source about a 7/1 horse in a 7 runner race, no value E/W si i have £100 to win, all day it's lumped on and is 2/1 at the off, i go on betfair and lay it for a bottle.

I have an outlay of £300, a downside of £0 and an upside of £500, how can that not be a hugely +EV long term position to be in.

If 2-1 is the correct price you are just reducing variance.  If it is too short then your +ev from the lay-off is independent from your 1st bet and if it is too long your lay-off is a loser.  So where does the huge +EV come from?

so i'll just sit there and watch a horse ive backed @7/1 contract to 2/1 and do nothing about my position instead choosing to have a wank about how exciting it all is.

Your answer entertaining tho it is, does not explain where the huge ev comes from.
Do you believe that the 2-1 is too short or not?

lol, dont worry i understand what you're saying, it's why i gave the example of recieving a tip from someone else.

I have no belief, if i studied the race the horse would be much of a muchness and i wouldnt have a clue about the horse, i wanted to use an example removed from my own personal opinion so i could focus on the mathmatics of it otherwise i wouldve simply said.........."you fancy a horse at 7/1" etc.

[The Camel]

I rarely hedge.

The only time I would is if (for example) I make a horse 5/1, I bet it at 8/1 and it gets backed into 3/1.

Then I make it a good value lay at 3/1.

But in practice a selection rarely moves enough in the market to make it value to back and lay.

[The Camel]

Oh by the way.. had a good message for Laureldean Spirit in the 5.10.

Worth a bet at 3/1 or better.