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Turning down a +EV situation.
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Topic: Turning down a +EV situation. (Read 4090 times)
thetank
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Posts: 19278
Turning down a +EV situation.
«
on:
December 05, 2005, 02:12:18 AM »
Jezza777's comments on the 'A doozy for ya!!' thread reminded me about a hypothetical conversation I had with Red Dog in Glasgow.
You are on ITV's 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' sitting on £64,000 and facing the £125,000 question.
You have no idea of the answer but you have a 50-50 lifeline left. You take it but still have no idea. You'd lose £32k if you guessed and got it wrong, but win an extra £61k if you guessed correctly. Your EV for guessing is £78.5k (even more as there's a chance you may know the answers to subsequent questions) whereas your EV for not guessing and taking the £64k is..... £64k.
It could be argued then that you cost yourself at least £14.5k in EV by taking the money.
Then again, this is a chance in a lifetime situation. If you were sitting in that chair thinking that the 64k will allow you to retire now and spend more time with your family etc. If you played and lost with the (mere) £32k you'd need to carry on working for a few years. You couldn't imagine the extra 61k you'd get if you guessed correctly making that huge a difference to your retirment plans and there's only so much money you feel you need.
In this situation you'd be silly to gamble, even though you're commiting crimes against EV.
If you're already a millionaire then 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' would be an easier game to play properly.
(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)
«
Last Edit: December 05, 2005, 02:17:11 AM by thetank
»
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For super fun to exist, well defined parameters must exist for the super fun to exist within.
ifm
If you're not part of the solution, you're a solid or a gas. Jimmy Carr
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Posts: 9259
Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #1 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:17:25 AM »
Quote from: thetank on December 05, 2005, 02:12:18 AM
(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)
PMSL, i can imagine you doing that!!
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Sometimes you have to suffer a little bit in your youth to motivate yourself to succeed in later life.
Do you think if Bill Gates got laid in high school, do you think there'd be a Microsoft?
Of course not.
Wardonkey
No ordinary donkey!
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #2 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:18:32 AM »
Barny Boatman went thru' this one on the Hendon Mob Forum. It's a matter of personal risk tolerance as much as a financial consideration. I have only one thing to say; GAMBOOOOOOOOOOOOOL!
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bundle
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #3 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:20:20 AM »
There is also a point of quitting while your ahead..
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snoopy1239
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #4 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:22:26 AM »
Quote from: thetank on December 05, 2005, 02:12:18 AM
(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)
hehe. geeeeeeeeeeeeek alert.
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thetank
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #5 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:23:29 AM »
Quote from: bundle on December 05, 2005, 02:20:20 AM
There is also a point of quitting while your ahead..
If you quit while you're a head you'll never win a beetle drive.
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For super fun to exist, well defined parameters must exist for the super fun to exist within.
Dewi_cool
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Dusk Till Dawn - It's like going home
Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #6 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:23:57 AM »
why are u lot not in bed
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The very last hand of the night goes to Dewi James, who finds ACES and talks Raymond O’Mahoney into calling his all-in preflop bet of 15k. “If I had AQ, I’d call!” says Dewi. Raymond calls holding pocket 66’s.
ifm
If you're not part of the solution, you're a solid or a gas. Jimmy Carr
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #7 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:26:06 AM »
Quote from: Dewi_cool on December 05, 2005, 02:23:57 AM
why are u lot not in bed
Bed is for sissys (or normal folks)
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Sometimes you have to suffer a little bit in your youth to motivate yourself to succeed in later life.
Do you think if Bill Gates got laid in high school, do you think there'd be a Microsoft?
Of course not.
Wardonkey
No ordinary donkey!
Hero Member
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Posts: 3645
Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #8 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:28:32 AM »
If you didn't start with anything then you can't lose anything, the upside is too big to ignore and the downside is tiny. You leave WINNING £32k as a worst case scenario.
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Wardonkey
No ordinary donkey!
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #9 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:30:40 AM »
What is this bed thing?
Is it the place I go to avoid the daylight?
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thetank
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #10 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:32:06 AM »
Quote from: snoopy1239 on December 05, 2005, 02:22:26 AM
Quote from: thetank on December 05, 2005, 02:12:18 AM
(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)
hehe. geeeeeeeeeeeeek alert.
Damn, the secret's out.
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For super fun to exist, well defined parameters must exist for the super fun to exist within.
snoopy1239
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #11 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:34:59 AM »
Next you'll be telling me that it's a pen and paper in front of Countdown.
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The Baron
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Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #12 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:46:06 AM »
Quote from: thetank on December 05, 2005, 02:12:18 AM
Jezza777's comments on the 'A doozy for ya!!' thread reminded me about a hypothetical conversation I had with Red Dog in Glasgow.
You are on ITV's 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' sitting on £64,000 and facing the £125,000 question.
You have no idea of the answer but you have a 50-50 lifeline left. You take it but still have no idea. You'd lose £32k if you guessed and got it wrong, but win an extra £61k if you guessed correctly. Your EV for guessing is £78.5k (even more as there's a chance you may know the answers to subsequent questions) whereas your EV for not guessing and taking the £64k is..... £64k.
It could be argued then that you cost yourself at least £14.5k in EV by taking the money.
Then again, this is a chance in a lifetime situation. If you were sitting in that chair thinking that the 64k will allow you to retire now and spend more time with your family etc. If you played and lost with the (mere) £32k you'd need to carry on working for a few years. You couldn't imagine the extra 61k you'd get if you guessed correctly making that huge a difference to your retirment plans and there's only so much money you feel you need.
In this situation you'd be silly to gamble, even though you're commiting crimes against EV.
If you're already a millionaire then 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' would be an easier game to play properly.
(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)
Wow, the funny thing is this has actually occured on millionaire.
A young student from East Anglia Uni in Norwich was in this exact predicament. He said he didn't know the question, said he wanted a 50:50 then announced that the risk was worth the reward and gambled.
He won £125,000 and left almost before the next question was read out.
For a 21 yr old he certainly had some testicular fortitude.
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thetank
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Posts: 19278
Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #13 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:53:50 AM »
If I were on the show and somehow managed to get up to £500k with my 50-50 left and knew the answer to the cheeky £1million question then I'd jazz it up.
I'd pretend I didn't know the answer, then chat to Chris for a bit about how my EV would be £516k from guessing so I had better take a stab at it. I reckon that'd be cracking telly.
There's a possibility the kid knew too and was hamming it up for the cameras.
«
Last Edit: December 05, 2005, 02:59:04 AM by thetank
»
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For super fun to exist, well defined parameters must exist for the super fun to exist within.
ifm
If you're not part of the solution, you're a solid or a gas. Jimmy Carr
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 9259
Re: Turning down a +EV situation.
«
Reply #14 on:
December 05, 2005, 02:56:19 AM »
I thought about the £1 mill question before, i always think that if i knew the answer i'd think about it and somehow convince myself i was wrong and take the £500k!!!
Logged
Sometimes you have to suffer a little bit in your youth to motivate yourself to succeed in later life.
Do you think if Bill Gates got laid in high school, do you think there'd be a Microsoft?
Of course not.
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