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Author Topic: Turning down a +EV situation.  (Read 4090 times)
thetank
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« on: December 05, 2005, 02:12:18 AM »

Jezza777's comments on the 'A doozy for ya!!' thread reminded me about a hypothetical conversation I had with Red Dog in Glasgow.

You are on ITV's 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' sitting on £64,000 and facing the £125,000 question.

You have no idea of the answer but you have a 50-50 lifeline left. You take it but still have no idea. You'd lose £32k if you guessed and got it wrong, but win an extra £61k if you guessed correctly. Your EV for guessing is £78.5k (even more as there's a chance you may know the answers to subsequent questions) whereas your EV for not guessing and taking the £64k is..... £64k.
It could be argued then that you cost yourself at least £14.5k in EV by taking the money.

Then again, this is a chance in a lifetime situation. If you were sitting in that chair thinking that the 64k will allow you to retire now and spend more time with your family etc. If you played and lost with the (mere) £32k you'd need to carry on working for a few years. You couldn't imagine the extra 61k you'd get if you guessed correctly making that huge a difference to your retirment plans and there's only so much money you feel you need.
In this situation you'd be silly to gamble, even though you're commiting crimes against EV.

If you're already a millionaire then 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' would be an easier game to play properly.

(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)
« Last Edit: December 05, 2005, 02:17:11 AM by thetank » Logged

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ifm
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« Reply #1 on: December 05, 2005, 02:17:25 AM »


(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)

PMSL, i can imagine you doing that!!
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Wardonkey
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« Reply #2 on: December 05, 2005, 02:18:32 AM »

Barny Boatman went thru' this one on the Hendon Mob Forum. It's a matter of personal risk tolerance as much as a financial consideration. I have only one thing to say; GAMBOOOOOOOOOOOOOL!
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bundle
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« Reply #3 on: December 05, 2005, 02:20:20 AM »

There is also a point of quitting while your ahead..
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snoopy1239
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« Reply #4 on: December 05, 2005, 02:22:26 AM »



(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)

hehe. geeeeeeeeeeeeek alert. 
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thetank
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« Reply #5 on: December 05, 2005, 02:23:29 AM »

There is also a point of quitting while your ahead..

If you quit while you're a head you'll never win a beetle drive.
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Dewi_cool
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« Reply #6 on: December 05, 2005, 02:23:57 AM »

why are u lot not in bed
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ifm
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« Reply #7 on: December 05, 2005, 02:26:06 AM »

why are u lot not in bed

Bed is for sissys (or normal folks)
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Wardonkey
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« Reply #8 on: December 05, 2005, 02:28:32 AM »

If you didn't start with anything then you can't lose anything, the upside is too big to ignore and the downside is tiny. You leave WINNING £32k as a worst case scenario.
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Wardonkey
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« Reply #9 on: December 05, 2005, 02:30:40 AM »

What is this bed thing?

Is it the place I go to avoid the daylight?
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thetank
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« Reply #10 on: December 05, 2005, 02:32:06 AM »



(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)

hehe. geeeeeeeeeeeeek alert. 

Damn, the secret's out.
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snoopy1239
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« Reply #11 on: December 05, 2005, 02:34:59 AM »

Next you'll be telling me that it's a pen and paper in front of Countdown.
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The Baron
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« Reply #12 on: December 05, 2005, 02:46:06 AM »

Jezza777's comments on the 'A doozy for ya!!' thread reminded me about a hypothetical conversation I had with Red Dog in Glasgow.

You are on ITV's 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' sitting on £64,000 and facing the £125,000 question.

You have no idea of the answer but you have a 50-50 lifeline left. You take it but still have no idea. You'd lose £32k if you guessed and got it wrong, but win an extra £61k if you guessed correctly. Your EV for guessing is £78.5k (even more as there's a chance you may know the answers to subsequent questions) whereas your EV for not guessing and taking the £64k is..... £64k.
It could be argued then that you cost yourself at least £14.5k in EV by taking the money.

Then again, this is a chance in a lifetime situation. If you were sitting in that chair thinking that the 64k will allow you to retire now and spend more time with your family etc. If you played and lost with the (mere) £32k you'd need to carry on working for a few years. You couldn't imagine the extra 61k you'd get if you guessed correctly making that huge a difference to your retirment plans and there's only so much money you feel you need.
In this situation you'd be silly to gamble, even though you're commiting crimes against EV.

If you're already a millionaire then 'Who want's to be a Millionaire' would be an easier game to play properly.

(That new one, 'Deal or No Deal' with Noel Edmonds is choc-a-block with crimes against EV. I usually watch it with my calculator and shout at the telly)

Wow, the funny thing is this has actually occured on millionaire.

A young student from East Anglia Uni in Norwich was in this exact predicament. He said he didn't know the question, said he wanted a 50:50 then announced that the risk was worth the reward and gambled.

He won £125,000 and left almost before the next question was read out.

For a 21 yr old he certainly had some testicular fortitude.
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thetank
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« Reply #13 on: December 05, 2005, 02:53:50 AM »

If I were on the show and somehow managed to get up to £500k with my 50-50 left and knew the answer to the cheeky £1million question then I'd jazz it up.

I'd pretend I didn't know the answer, then chat to Chris for a bit about how my EV would be £516k from guessing so I had better take a stab at it. I reckon that'd be cracking telly.

There's a possibility the kid knew too and was hamming it up for the cameras.
« Last Edit: December 05, 2005, 02:59:04 AM by thetank » Logged

For super fun to exist, well defined parameters must exist for the super fun to exist within.
ifm
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« Reply #14 on: December 05, 2005, 02:56:19 AM »

I thought about the £1 mill question before, i always think that if i knew the answer i'd think about it and somehow convince myself i was wrong and take the £500k!!!
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Sometimes you have to suffer a little bit in your youth to motivate yourself to succeed in later life.
Do you think if Bill Gates got laid in high school, do you think there'd be a Microsoft?
Of course not.
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