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Poker Hand Analysis
Your move ?
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Topic: Your move ? (Read 3154 times)
outragous76
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Yeah Bitch! ......... MAGNETS! owwwh!
Re: Your move ?
«
Reply #15 on:
October 06, 2009, 08:30:51 AM »
As played get em in.
However a more standard line with tt when this deep would be to flat pre and set mine. Your hand is very vulnerable when you get 3 callers which is fairly standard.
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Shawrie85
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Re: Your move ?
«
Reply #16 on:
October 06, 2009, 11:50:58 AM »
Get em all-in quick n have a little chuckle when you see how badly he plays A-10, imo only
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poonjoe
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Re: Your move ?
«
Reply #17 on:
October 06, 2009, 05:01:18 PM »
Did you raise small on flop coz you where worried about JQ? Or did you raise small to keep the fish on the line?
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"Every time the action is on you, its your opportunity to make the perfect play"- Phil Galfond
marcin123
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Re: Your move ?
«
Reply #18 on:
October 06, 2009, 06:23:21 PM »
I'm never folding on the flop
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nirvana
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Re: Your move ?
«
Reply #19 on:
October 06, 2009, 06:34:38 PM »
Quote from: poonjoe on October 06, 2009, 05:01:18 PM
Did you raise small on flop coz you where worried about JQ? Or did you raise small to keep the fish on the line?
Still working on my bet sizing, raised enough to fold out complete donk lead bets with bare J or Q or worse perhaps.
Bet small enough to keep in A x, K x type hands
Might be a bit of hindsight there (however, I know when I raised I never considered I was behind), Later in the hand I start worrying about JQ
«
Last Edit: October 06, 2009, 06:36:20 PM by nirvana
»
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sola virtus nobilitat
Royal Flush
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Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: Your move ?
«
Reply #20 on:
October 07, 2009, 03:18:05 AM »
I don't mind raising the flop here without a plan to a 3b tbh, obv we hope to get called and then get a 2500 bet called somewhere down the line.
When we get 3b its obv either wiiiii hand in air time or norrrrr hero fold time, it would all depend on live reads etc.
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[19:44:40] Oracle: WE'RE ALL GOING ON A SPANISH HOLIDAY! TRIGGS STABLES SHIT!
poonjoe
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Re: Your move ?
«
Reply #21 on:
October 07, 2009, 06:23:17 AM »
Against any decent/sophisticated/positionally aware player, he has a very narrow range given this action. If he's fishy then he could be playing AT/KT/AA/KK/AK like this.
So is this guy decent or fishy? Either way you have much more equity with your set than you need to get it all in. You can only fold here if he is actually a piece of granite dug from a quarry and placed on a chair at the poker table.
If he's decent, then he has JQ or some ballsy bluff or semi bluff with a pair-plus-gutshot-plus-backdoor-flushdraw type hand.
If we treat his 5k raise as an 8k shove, and you have him covered, then the price is 6900 to win (8000+1100+400+1025=) 10575. Chips-for-chips, you need 6900/(10575+6900) = 39.5%.
However this is a tournament, not cash. You are risking a very good position in the tournament to try and win a better position. You have more to lose than you stand to gain. Therefore you should be looking for a bit more than 39.5% in this spot. IMO you need something like 42-43%.
So how much equity do you have against a decent player? Well, there are 16 ways of dealing JQ, and its very likely he would have played it this way. Then we have AQ and AJ (24). Less likely are KQ and KJ (24). Very unlikely are QT, JT( 8 ). Add another 8 combos for the sake of random bluffs and you have a total of 80 possible combinations.
Pokerstove says you have 34.9% against JQ, 84.1% against AQ/AJ, 84.1% against KQ/KJ, 85.1% against QT/JT and 92.4% against a random hand.
Before you weight this range towards JQ, you have an average equity of 75.2% ! He has to be playing JQ here almost all the time before you can think about folding. If you assume he has JQ here nine times more often than AQ/AJ, and the less likely hands nine times less often, your equity is a healthy 43.1%.
What if he's a fish? Then he could have slow played AA,KK (6), or AK (9), or be ready to go broke on AT,KT (6). Although the oversets crush us, we crush the two-pairs, and there are more two-pair combos, so our equity actually improves when we add these into the mix.
«
Last Edit: October 07, 2009, 06:25:55 AM by poonjoe
»
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Royal Flush
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Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: Your move ?
«
Reply #22 on:
October 07, 2009, 07:35:33 PM »
What sort of good player is going to bluff in this spot? How can you give 8 combo's of air?
I would put a good players range here as AA/QJ
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[19:44:40] Oracle: WE'RE ALL GOING ON A SPANISH HOLIDAY! TRIGGS STABLES SHIT!
poonjoe
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Re: Your move ?
«
Reply #23 on:
October 07, 2009, 07:51:56 PM »
Well I like to add some random combos to his range to allow for bluffs - do you think that around 10% is too much?
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"Every time the action is on you, its your opportunity to make the perfect play"- Phil Galfond
nirvana
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Re: Your move ?
«
Reply #24 on:
October 07, 2009, 08:02:53 PM »
FWIW, he did have JQ, I set him all in after a 20 second or so re-think, I binked.
Reason for the post was to find out out about my raise on the flop and then if anyone was ever folding to his raise to 5k. Genuine questions imo
Appreciate the responses chaps
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titaniumbean
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Equity means nothing.
Re: Your move ?
«
Reply #25 on:
October 07, 2009, 08:06:06 PM »
If i'm raising i'm not folding.I'm not always raising though.
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Royal Flush
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Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: Your move ?
«
Reply #26 on:
October 07, 2009, 09:27:47 PM »
Quote from: poonjoe on October 07, 2009, 07:51:56 PM
Well I like to add some random combos to his range to allow for bluffs - do you think that around 10% is too much?
Maybe 1%
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[19:44:40] Oracle: WE'RE ALL GOING ON A SPANISH HOLIDAY! TRIGGS STABLES SHIT!
Simon Galloway
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Re: Your move ?
«
Reply #27 on:
October 08, 2009, 12:24:22 AM »
Quote from: nirvana on October 07, 2009, 08:02:53 PM
FWIW, he did have JQ, I set him all in after a 20 second or so re-think, I binked.
Come back to this board when you don't bink. Until then, it doesn't matter what you do.
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