The key skill

[Pyso]

Not a hand history as such, but do any blondes have any tips for dealing with this poker problem?

You are playing regularly, beating the game, but you find yourself in a cluster of hands over a few days where your c-bets always get called, your opponents’ draws always get there and you are generally being asked to make thin calls all the time with a good or very good hand that seems to be beaten. Your opponent may have the winning hand because he played it logically or he may have it because he didn’t. But each time, you suspect he has the goods - the only trouble is the call you are being asked to make is for a favourable price once you factor in the hands he could have that you can beat, as well as the possibility that he is bluffing.

So, time after time you make the reluctant call because you feel the maths tells you to, and the opponent turns over the hand you suspected he has, and you lose.

Now, there may be some misplayed streets that put you in this position, but how do we go about not letting the variance of the game and the fact that your opponents do hit their gutshots when they should really have folded, not put us in a position where we are having to go through this uncomfortable process of burning money. Do we just fold every time we get that gut feeling and sit there stewing ? Is this actually the long term key to it all?

This might be another way of saying that what we really need to do is just stop playing badly, and there is an element of truth to this too, but are there any clever ways we can lessen this stubborn desire to go with the maths and call?

Forget maths completely?

Take a break?  Is it that simple?

Take up tiddlywinks?

[GreekStein]

Take a little break and come back when you're re-focused.

I know from my own play that if I'm in a half decent mindset I'll do well and If I'm not then I'll get crushed, usually by myself.

[Longy]

Out of those 3 options "Take a break" is deffo the best. Ignoring the maths seems like a really bad idea, the cards have no memory, what has gone before doesn't affect what is going to happen in the future.

If you are not get your mind right to play poker take a break and come back when you are ready, identifying this is half the battle.

[Simon Galloway]

the cards have no memory, what has gone before doesn't affect what is going to happen in the future.

Whilst that is undoubtedly true, why is it on a thread like Luton G on Live board, the same names come up as absolutely unbeatable in a flip?  If you polled 100 Luton players and asked them if they would rather flip against Lalit/MDD/British Gas/Jim McBride/Paul Noonan or Chompy/Graham Rodgers/Me/Celtic/Tighty I would expect the skew to be 10:90 or even greater.  That either tells you that Luton players are stupid, that cards do have memory, or that the short run is so long that it feels like the long run to most people.

[david3103]

the cards have no memory, what has gone before doesn't affect what is going to happen in the future.

Whilst that is undoubtedly true, why is it on a thread like Luton G on Live board, the same names come up as absolutely unbeatable in a flip?  If you polled 100 Luton players and asked them if they would rather flip against Lalit/MDD/British Gas/Jim McBride/Paul Noonan or Chompy/Graham Rodgers/Me/Celtic/Tighty I would expect the skew to be 10:90 or even greater.  That either tells you that Luton players are stupid, that cards do have memory, or that the short run is so long that it feels like the long run to most people.

Obviously I don't know these people, but is it possible that the 'lucky' group get involved in more flips and that the selective nature of our memories gives greater weight to the times they win?

[Rockstar]

Simon makes a good point

The names mentioned are serial hitters,variant or not they will hit time and time again

I firmly believe whether you like it or not certain people are luckier than others and they will continue to confound the odds for as long as they hit the felt

Interestingly the same people will flip over marginals because to them they are so used to getting the cards they require on a regular basis its just another day at the office for them

[Longy]

the cards have no memory, what has gone before doesn't affect what is going to happen in the future.

Whilst that is undoubtedly true, why is it on a thread like Luton G on Live board, the same names come up as absolutely unbeatable in a flip?  If you polled 100 Luton players and asked them if they would rather flip against Lalit/MDD/British Gas/Jim McBride/Paul Noonan or Chompy/Graham Rodgers/Me/Celtic/Tighty I would expect the skew to be 10:90 or even greater.  That either tells you that Luton players are stupid, that cards do have memory, or that the short run is so long that it feels like the long run to most people.

I think you know my what response is going to be Simon but.............

Firstly sample sizes in poker take so long to even out the variance that people can run above expectations for ridic amounts of time. When you think in online poker you can have runs over 100k hands where you run like crap, extrapolate that to the live arena and that is a long time especially in tournament poker.

Selective memory, there is definitely something extremely dellusional about playing poker, that the human mind deals with in a weird way. The beats stand out more than the binks, I bet these people who alledgedly run good don't think they are lucky.

[Longy]

Simon makes a good point

The names mentioned are serial hitters,variant or not they will hit time and time again

I firmly believe whether you like it or not certain people are luckier than others and they will continue to confound the odds for as long as they hit the felt

Interestingly the same people will flip over marginals because to them they are so used to getting the cards they require on a regular basis its just another day at the office for them

Sighhhhh, think this is going to my last post on this thread. I really can't be bothered with another "Oh my god poker is rigged" debate or "I run worse than you" arguement.

[AlexMartin]

move up to where they respect your 3balls

[Pyso]

This thread has veered off course. I wasn't proposing that any one person is luckier than another or that live poker is rigged and I wasn't even having a moan about running bad. I just wanted some help on dealing with the inevitable downturn and dealing with the tricky problem of whether to take a break, or tweak my play, or both.

[Eck]

LOLZ I get seriously fed up with my mates who continually go on about how often I "hit" (probably because i Show loads of cards when playing with them or they have paid me off again). They always fail to recall all the times they have got 'lucky'. Selective memories FTW....sigh....

As for your original question i find copious amounts of alcohol and destroying the odd laptop helps to re-focus the mind the next day....

[kukushkin88]

This thread has veered off course. I wasn't proposing that any one person is luckier than another or that live poker is rigged and I wasn't even having a moan about running bad. I just wanted some help on dealing with the inevitable downturn and dealing with the tricky problem of whether to take a break, or tweak my play, or both.

If the problem is that your opponents keep getting their money in bad and you are playing within your bankroll then I can't see what the problem is. If you are losing it's highly unlikely to be predominantly because your opponents keep getting their money in in bad shape. Take a break until you are in the right frame of mind to make good (primarily maths driven) decisions based on all the information available to you.

[Cf]

I think one of the main problems was

"your gut says you're beat, but you're getting 3:1 or whatever on a call, do you still make the call?"

I myself often find myself paying off these types of hands. You know you're behind, but you want to make the crying call anyway because the price is decent and you're curious.

3:1 may be a good price. But you have to ask yourself, are you really winning enough times here? And this now comes back to the maths. If you decide you're 90% sure that you're beat then 3:1 isn't a good enough price and you should fold.

Meh, I'm rambling. Basically, my point is, don't get too attracted by the pots odds you're getting all the time. Sometimes even an attractive price is a bad price.

[MANTIS01]

Firstly, if you're regularly beating a game you don't have much to worry about. It is normal you will lose sometimes. The problems start when you let a losing sequence affect your overall decision making, or you think general muppety thoughts about how unlucky you are. It doesn't really matter if your unlucky claims are true or not because those thoughts will never help increase your winning chances.

If you regularly beat a cash game you're gonna be pretty intense about the maths but there is undoubtedly a feel element to the game. If you think you have lost the balance between the two I would step out of cash and play a few tournaments. Have some fun playing purely feel poker and see where that takes you. This might give you more faith in your reading skills and improve your cash game. I agree with CF, the pot odds are shit if you're beat.

[Pyso]

I think one of the main problems was

"your gut says you're beat, but you're getting 3:1 or whatever on a call, do you still make the call?"

I myself often find myself paying off these types of hands. You know you're behind, but you want to make the crying call anyway because the price is decent and you're curious.

3:1 may be a good price. But you have to ask yourself, are you really winning enough times here? And this now comes back to the maths. If you decide you're 90% sure that you're beat then 3:1 isn't a good enough price and you should fold.

Meh, I'm rambling. Basically, my point is, don't get too attracted by the pots odds you're getting all the time. Sometimes even an attractive price is a bad price.

Well said. Knowing it and acting on it is the difficult bit.