The flop loves me, or loves me not?

[poonjoe]

Typical .50/1 Omaha game on Stars - lots of multiway flops and re-raising preflop very often means Aces.

POKERSTARS GAME #33165326185:  OMAHA POT LIMIT ($0.50/$1.00 USD) - 2009/09/23 0:39:57 WET [2009/09/22 19:39:57 ET]
Table 'Sponde' 6-max Seat #4 is the button

Seat 1: ominoesius ($20 in chips)
Seat 2: Kutila ($115.75 in chips)
Seat 3: evallis ($54.80 in chips)
Seat 4: poonjoe ($82.40 in chips)
Seat 5: corto12 ($328.75 in chips)
Seat 6: swooshdog4 ($113.70 in chips)
corto12: posts small blind $0.50
swooshdog4: posts big blind $1

Dealt to poonjoe

ominoesius: folds
Kutila: raises $2.50 to $3.50
evallis: calls $3.50

poonjoe: calls $3.50

corto12: calls $3
swooshdog4: raises $17.50 to $21
Kutila: calls $17.50
evallis: folds

poonjoe: calls $17.50

corto12: folds

*** FLOP ***

swooshdog4: bets $67
Kutila: raises $27.75 to $94.75 and is all-in

poonjoe: would like to hear yr thoughts on pre-flop and postflop. I've called a good portion of my stack off preflop to try and flop two pair or better, or a combination draw, to stack the three-bettor swooshdog. I expect him to stack off on the vast majority of flops with what I can only presume to be Aces.

So the flop comes, swooshdog makes the expected shove and I'm ready to get it in... but wait! Here comes Kutila putting his stack in before me!

My pot odds just got better but how good is my two pair?

[GreekStein]

Pass pre, get it in now.

[Laxie]

I'd have passed pre, but I play miles too tight anyway.

My question is, why is this such a great hand once the flop hits? 

If you've called pre with 34 and 78, is there no chance someone else called with the likes of 56?

Also, you've only got 2 pair.  I'd be worried about flush draws binking with 2 cards to come.  Also wee sets (most likely from Kutila) that we haven't spotted til we're broke from being so excited about the 2 pair.

Am I way off base? 

[poonjoe]

Off course yr not way off base Laxie.

Obviously you have to think that Kutila has me beat. ...and it gets worse. If he does have the 56, he will often have connecting cards to go with it, like 5678 or 4567, which seriously harm my chances of filling up. If he has top set I am dead, If he has second or third set I am nearly dead.

Its difficult for my two-pair to improve, I don't even have a backdoor flush draw.

Kutila was the original raiser, and flatted the three-bet with three players behind. I use Poker Tracker Omaha but do not have a large enough sample to make assumptions about his range. Really the best I can hope for here is that he has the bare nut flush draw, or something like KKxx with a flush draw, maybe 789T with a flush draw...

Furthermore, there is the shover who we assume has aces. He could easily have the nut flush draw, or could even have us crushed with a set or a straight if he didn't 3-bet with aces.

That said, look at the pot-odds. Both players have us covered, so after we've put in the $21 preflop we have $61.40 behind. The rake has already been taken out when Swoosh bets pot $67. We have to call $61.40 to win ($67+$61.40+61.40=) $189.80, so we're getting better than 3-1 and we're looking for an equity of (61.40/(189.80+61.40)=) 24.4%.

Of course we have the equity we need when we're up against overpairs and flush draws, but when we're beat, we're really beat, and our equity often sinks as low as just a few percentage points.

Whats yr move?

[Karabiner]

I think that as played I would have to shove here as we have AA,KK,QQ based hands strangled and the pot odds are good.

I don't mind calling with this kind of hand on the button but this flop illustrates the risks that we run when we do.

[marcin123]

Pass pre... Pass on flop...

[BigCityBanker]

if you are folded this flop (or indeed if you are now advocating a fold) your next move should have been to withdraw all your funds and give up poker. Be sure to contact Stars and tell them to close your account permanently just incase you are tempted to lodge money at any point in the future.

this is a very easy get it in spot. the preflop 3better prolly has AA with nfd and the next man can ofc have the nutleys or set but can also have something like 6789 or similar with hearts which he ofc has to get it in with. Ok, so you are not getting your money in with 50% + equity but you must understand that you dont need that much equity to get it in the middle here. like you are 82bb's deep, this would be an interesting decision if you and Kultia had 150+bb's

[EvilPie]

We need to be much deeper to call this pre. Sticking 20% of our stack in here is very bad.

Once we hit this flop then we can't ever pass. What more do you want??

[Mitch]

We need to be much deeper to call this pre. Sticking 20% of our stack in here is very bad.

Once we hit this flop then we can't ever pass. What more do you want??

 

[EvilPie]

We need to be much deeper to call this pre. Sticking 20% of our stack in here is very bad.

Once we hit this flop then we can't ever pass. What more do you want??

 

The chances of getting paid are ridic slim on that flop.

Let's leave the bink 'til the river.

[poonjoe]

if you are folded this flop (or indeed if you are now advocating a fold) your next move should have been to withdraw all your funds and give up poker. Be sure to contact Stars and tell them to close your account permanently just incase you are tempted to lodge money at any point in the future.

this is a very easy get it in spot. the preflop 3better prolly has AA with nfd and the next man can ofc have the nutleys or set but can also have something like 6789 or similar with hearts which he ofc has to get it in with. Ok, so you are not getting your money in with 50% + equity but you must understand that you dont need that much equity to get it in the middle here. like you are 82bb's deep, this would be an interesting decision if you and Kultia had 150+bb's

lol @50% equity. Like i said i'm looking for 25% equity and I'm not sure I have it.

Good point Banker and Pie about bad call pre I need a better hand or a deeper stack to call off $21. However, as you guys know, these double suited straightening hands are absolutely massive when yr up against two players with Aces/high cards.

[BigCityBanker]

lol @50% equity. Like i said i'm looking for 25% equity and I'm not sure I have it.

Good point Banker and Pie about bad call pre I need a better hand or a deeper stack to call off $21. However, as you guys know, these double suited straightening hands are absolutely massive when yr up against two players with Aces/high cards.

Id doubt you are far off 25% equity - like it depends on what his opening range is - like maybe the 3better has naked aces and Kulita has Ax with the NFD - id struggle to want to fold this.

also - I think you are overrepresenting the strength of your hand preflop - sure its double suited but it is a 2 gapper with low ends

[poonjoe]

yeh too weak to put in 20% of stack probably

anyway

poonjoe: folds
swooshdog4: calls $25.70 and is all-in

*** TURN ***
*** RIVER ***

swooshdog4: shows   (two pair, Aces and Sevens)
Kutila: shows (a flush, King high)
Kutila collected $252.40 from pot

[GreekStein]

yeh too weak to put in 20% of stack probably

anyway

poonjoe: folds
swooshdog4: calls $25.70 and is all-in

*** TURN ***
*** RIVER ***

swooshdog4: shows    (two pair, Aces and Sevens)
Kutila: shows (a flush, King high)
Kutila collected $252.40 from pot

Norrrrr

[AlexMartin]

WTF u put 20% in then hit GIN and dont go with it. arghhhhhhhh