SnG bubble situation

[thetank]

Remeber that this is an odd situation here (blinds are really low 50/100) Most bubble situations in online SNGs you won't be nearly this deep (relative to the blinds). It is a fallacy to think that being deep is always an advantage, that we can always somehow bring our post flop skillz to bear. The bubble dynamic here forces us to play much weaker than we'd like to post flop and so we won't be able to get any edge. We'd actually make more money if we were slightly shallower here relative to the blinds.

Versus a strong or a lagtarded opponent who is going to ask us questions on the flop pretty much 100% of the time, folding pre is the line. I fold pre vs a whole load of regs here.

You might think that's excessively weak but believe me when I tell you there will be plenty of oppurtunity to give the opponents headaches, to play back at them, in other (far more commonly occuring) scenarios in SNGs.


Some weaker opponents will check till the turn or river then throw out a weak bluff that you can snap off. Peeling pre vs these guys is fine.


I hate the shove here, far too deep. Even if there is scenarios whereby ICM says it's profitable bear in mind that the ICM model works best with 10 BBs and below. ICM here would only tell us if something is definately wrong.

[thetank]

Doesn't this make anybody who 100% relies on wiz very exploitable on bubble situations? Basically you raise them with atc and they only shove with better than A10 or presumably pairs in the region of 88+

Surely we have to mix our range up a little bit or we're gonna get muffed by any half decent player?

The input to an ICM calculation always requires putting a value on what opponents are shoving or calling with. This depends on at table reads, intuition, feel, all the rest of it.

For this reason, I'm not to sure what you mean when you talk about a player who "100% relies on wiz". Wiz can't tell them who is on tilt, which regs push too loose from MP, who has rocked up to fuck etc.

Adjustment to their adjustments and all the rest of it gets very interesting.

Worth checking out, particularly for heads up play, is the concept of the nash equilibrium. It's born of the whole...

I'm shoving with range X, he knows that therfore he's calling with range B. Range B is optimal to call with if I'm shoving range X.
I then know he's calling with range B so I'm going to shove with range Y. Range Y is the optimal shoving range if he's calling with range B.
Then he knows I'm shoving with range Y so starts calling with range C.

...etc etc till an equilibrium is reached.