Cash virgin: Butchered a hand - and looking for help

[Ismene]

Ok - so this hand is pretty hideous -

J4CKD3UC3 had about $42
Perse had about $70

I say "about" as i copied 1/2 the hand last night intending to post but the server was down - this is all i had on skype.

I don't use HM or equiv and I'd been fairly active at table  - he seemed fairly nitty and weakish - i had been c betting over 90% of hands and generally getting them through.

Talk me through what I did wrong - and what you think he had -

Dealt to Perse [ ]
Bavarese folds
BBV07 has 15 seconds left to act
BBV07 folds
Perse raises to $1.75
Elsoldadodelsol has 15 seconds left to act
Elsoldadodelsol folds
slapbet23 has 15 seconds left to act
slapbet23 folds
J4CKD3UC3 calls $1.25
*** FLOP *** [ Ah ]
J4CKD3UC3 checks
Perse bets $2.50
J4CKD3UC3 calls $2.50
*** TURN *** [ Ah ] []
J4CKD3UC3 has 15 seconds left to act
J4CKD3UC3 bets $5
Perse has 15 seconds left to act
Perse calls $5
*** RIVER *** [ Ah ]

J4CKD3UC3 bets $35.05, and is all in Perse has 15 seconds left to act Perse has requested TIME Perse

[KarmaDope]

Ling, there's no river card...

[Ismene]

There is now....

[The_duke]

ooops

[AlexMartin]

Ling, there's no river card...stack sizes

[pleno1]

Post the whole hand with stack sizes etc. It looks like he has either backdoored into the nut flush/ flopped a set/turned a house.

Pre is fine

Flop is fine although I dont mind a c/behind

Turn im doing cartwheels thinking he has an Ace and thinking how to get stacks in. I raise to 15.90 then jam the river.

[UpTheMariners]

check flop, prob fold river

[mondatoo]

Why does it seem like every pha thread everyone assumes villain has a clue what there doing is it just coz most thread are bad beats,i agree with checking the flop but imo a lot of villains are bad enough to be shoving worse here, i call

[Rod]

*sigh* Just typed a reply to this then clicked post and my connection went down. Oh well here goes again. Doing it again as it is an interesting hand I think.

I am assuming that, as you describe the villian as "fairly nitty and weakish" he is a pretty standard $50nl player. You don't say which room you are, so I am assuming one of the main rooms (Pokerstars, Full Tilt or ipoker). Not that this make a massive difference to be honest.

The raise in late position with suited connectors is fine although I would have made it $2. You get a call from the big blind. It's really hard to assign a range at this stage but we can probably discount big pairs and given the read on the player total junk. We could well be looking at a range of small or middle pairs, suited connectors, raggy aces (maybe suited) and two broadway cards. Not a lot of info to work with at this stage. We do have momentum and position in the hand. Obviously we also have a hand with potential.

The flop is rainbow. It could have hit him with the ace. There is a possible straight but I think it would be a tiny part of his range to even have the straight draw. We have a five so 5-5 is unlikely. The only set he could probably have is threes (fives is possible but we have a blocker). He could have hit two pair with his ace. He could have just hit the ace.

He checks to us. This is probably to be expected as we had the betting lead before the flop. I think we are betting this though. The pot has $3.75 in it, so I am betting $3 here ($2.50 might even be enough) we only need to take the pot down half the time to show a profit and c-betting an ace high flop tends to get through more than half the time so think you will show a long term profit by doing this. I can understand why you might want to check and take the free card as you can improve you hand on the turn but I think betting is better as it is profitable and I can get better hands (like mid pairs) to fold. I can also improve if he calls. He does call. So I now think he is likely to have an ace of some kind. Most likely one that is not that strong. I don't think he has the straight as he would have had to call our raise with 4-2 which most typical $50nl players will not do. He can't have a set of aces as he would have reraised preflop and we have a five so a set of fives less likely also. He could have a set of threes or he could have hit two pair with A2 or A5, he could be floating a card with a mid pair. At this point I think his most likely hand is an ace of some kind. I am sure we are behind at this point and getting called means I shut down unless we improve.

The turn then improves our hand greatly. We have now gone in front of all the aces he could hold other than A5 and of any pairs. Of the likely hands he could have the only ones beating us are that A5 or 3-3 (still not really believing the straight). He then bets into us $5. This is not really what I would have expected but maybe he is worried about the flush draw. I still think we are way ahead of his range he and I would look at the pot which now has $13.75 in it, there is a flush draw, which he could have picked up with his ace, so I am raising because of this but mainly for value. I make it $15 there and hope for a call, I am going to have to call if he shoves although if he does I don't like it. At this point I have him on an ace of some kind that I beat.

As played on the river we have a pot of $18.75 and the villian is shoving $35 into it? So we are being asked to call $35 to win about $51 (rake adjusted). That river bet has me very worried. This suddenly looks a lot more like a monster than an ace (maybe it is 3-3). We have a normal $50nl player. What would I expect a $50nl player to do with an ace here. Probably check or bet between $5 and $10. Certainly not shove. The river also completed the flush draw. He could have shoved with the flush even on the paired board and Ax of diamonds would be part of his range. Perhaps he has the flush or has seen the river has completed the flush and has shoved his house hoping we have the flush - either way it does not matter both hands beat us. This overbet on the river is these days normally a strong hand hoping it looks like a bluff and will get called light or just somebody with a big hand praying for a call.

The bet just does not make sense for a player holding a bare ace or two pair. To make this call profitable I have to be right about 43% of the time. There just seem to be too many hands that beat us given the way the hand has gone and this weird bet on the river. It is a horrible spot but I think I have to say it is a fold.

So did you call and if you did what did he have??

[AlexMartin]

wp op assuming u fold river. also bet turn bigger fwiw so u can put him to a closer decision on the river due to pot odds.

[GreekStein]

im finding it v hard to fold triplet 5's here at 50nl

[Rod]

im finding it v hard to fold triplet 5's here at 50nl

What do you reckon he is pushing with here though? I think it is a fold, but I could be wrong. He could have made a bad play with some ace or crappy two pair but I don't think he is doing that often enough to justify a call.

We don't actually beat that much of a range that shoves the river. I would like to know the outcome of the hand though if the OP has it.

Somebody tell me if I am totally wrong here.

[GreekStein]

im finding it v hard to fold triplet 5's here at 50nl

What do you reckon he is pushing with here though? I think it is a fold, but I could be wrong. He could have made a bad play with some ace or crappy two pair but I don't think he is doing that often enough to justify a call.

We don't actually beat that much of a range that shoves the river. I would like to know the outcome of the hand though if the OP has it.

Somebody tell me if I am totally wrong here.

Yeah in reality it probably is a fold, but it's how I roll in poker....I just level myself into thinking everyone's an idiot.

He could easily be turning an ace into a bluff, or perhaps even got there with a flush. Is he a donko who valueshoves river with AK/AQ? Could be valueshoving AT too I guess as he thinks Ling has a 5 like 0% of the time.

[snoopy1239]

Given the stakes, line, and overbet, fold river.

Happy to cb, but don't think checking is bad either.

Would prob raise the turn for value.

Looks like A-J of diamonds or something if I had to guess.