200nl HU river spot.

[pleno1]

Have played around 300 hands, unfortunately no HUD, but villain seems OK, raising close to 100% of buttons but 3betting too much from the BB.  initially I started the HU game playing passively OOP pre and leading alot of flops, he initially folded lots but then adjusted and floated alot so I adjusted in turn. Has called me down with Ace high before and also bottom/second bottom pair a few times when I have double barrelled. He has also seen me c/r a gutshot then barrel the turn with air and river went c/c.

I like to flat pre with broadways, to get value from hands like q7s, q8, q9, j9, j8, etc etc. Is this fine?

On the river can we/ should we  shove for value? or ....


SB: $499
Hero (BB): $253

Pre-Flop:  dealt to Hero (BB)
SB raises to $6, Hero calls $4

Flop: ($12)  (2 Players)
Hero checks, SB bets $8, Hero raises to $32, SB calls $24

Turn: ($76)  (2 Players)
Hero bets $60, SB calls $60

River: ($196)  (2 Players)
Hero ?

[StuartHopkin]

Pics of villain or not interested

[byronkincaid]

in the absence of any posts to +1 I think you wanna bet this river cos worse hands will call but may well check behind if you don't. seems unlikely that he is floating turn to bluff river unless he picked up some kind of flush draw maybe. better hands would be looking to get all in on flop probably.

[doubleup]

I suppose playng this kind of hand correctly (good hand oop, but problematic river) is the secret of winning at HU. 

He called a decent bet on the turn, so it does look like a made hand of some kind.  The river is unlikely to have improved him (no many hands with a K call the turn) but might scare him off from making a hero call with QT or A8.

I'd have a go at betting 60 again and prob make a crying call if shoved on.

[SteveSpring]

I'd have a go at betting 60 again and prob make a crying call if shoved on.

Prob similar line

[OnTheBubble]

I don't think a king changes anything....I would bet the river.

[pleno1]

i agree that my hand is somewhat overrepped on the flop, but on this flop I will be c/r a tonne as he has a very high cbet % and this board misses him a high % of the time, so I can't just c/r air, I need to have a balanced c/r range and I don't think on this specific board I should be raising my nut nut hands. So I actually think it's fine to have this hand in my c/r range on uber dry boards.

Anyway, throughout the hand I had a "feel" that he had 99-JJ and thought that he thought I was FOS, although most people will think fuck an overcard I'll check it down, imo the king is actually a really good card for me (See bluefirepoker video: When a scare card is not a scare card by Phil Galfond) He knows that there isn't many kings in my range except KQ which he may expect me to 3bet pre. He would probably fold 99-JJ/Q9/Q10 if the board came a 8/9/7/6/j/10, but because of the king theres just not many times that he thinks that I would bet the river as 90% of people pot control here.

I think I had 155$ back or something in that region, don't have the HH on me right now and the pot was about $210. I have just over a 3/4 bet left and if I shove this river I really think that he eliminates Qx hands from my range and put me on nuts (sets) and air that I have c/r a dry board with then tripple barrelled as the board got scarier.

Another reason why I was talking myself into betting was because I was going to be missing out on value, ok fair enough he may sometime stab with complete air on the river, but when does he ever have complete air? There isn't many hands that he could of called me with that down have any showdown value even Axcc which picks a fd up on the turn has showdown value. All pairs, especially the range I put him on have huge amounts of showdown value and I think I miss out on so much value when if I check he checks behind like 95% of the time.

I tanked right down and eventually shoved and he used his timebank before calling me with Q9o. He said in the chatbox. "wow, you are either really good or really bad" Which made me post the hand up here to gauge opinion.