AK late in a $550 STT

[EvilPie]

SNGwiz tells us our profitability over a range of hands

Nah it tells us the profitability of shoving AK because that is what we have. It then also suggests what other hands it would be profitable to shove with. At no point is it formulating a complete strategy, with hands included for metagame purposes, such as you might do when playing cash in 4bet/5bet situations. The worst hand in its suggested range is still profitable to shove with, in fact profitable enough to exceed our minimum edge. BTW I'm still not clear on what minimum edge is, David Tighe told me to set it to 0.07 which he said equated to a 7% ROI, but I see tank has it at 0.41 and I don't think tank looks for a 41% roi, can anybody clear this up for me?

What I meant was it tells us our profitability of shoving our specific hand over our opponents range of hands. We have to give wiz a range for oppo so that it can tell us what other hands we can profitably shove with.

How can we assign our opponent a range if we have nothing on him? Also what's the point if we aren't going to play him again?

This is why I say that we need to know how often our hero plays these games. If he's a reg then ICM is very relevant but if it's a one off it really doesn't matter and I think we should consider the hand very differently. It's basically the same as any other AK hand. Raise and look to get it in or shove if we don't want to risk playing a flop with A high.

[EvilPie]

If it's not many then is all the SNGwiz stuff really of any use?

SNGwiz numbers are great for the long term game but if we only play 20 games a week isn't it largely irrelevant.

Fuddie duddy!

  WP sir!!

I 100% accept that ICM is brilliant and I've used it myself to study p/f situations.

Do you disagree that it's only of relevance as a long term tool though?

Surely we need to play at least  5 million squillion billion hands before we know we've got it right?

[thetank]

What's the best thing to do in the long term will almost always also be the best thing to do in the short term in so far as maximising our equity goes. In fact there is no long and short term, there are only individual decisions to be made.

ICM can be misapplied, overapplied, over relied on, seen as my first, my last, my everything at the expense of some good common sense. More on that somewhere else.

When applied properly though, it's useful even if you just play one sitngo every 5 million billion squillion years.

[MC]

When applied properly though, it's useful even if you just play one sitngo every 5 million billion squillion years.

Amen

[thetank]

In fact, if by short termism you mean reducing variance, ICM could be seen as being even more important.

Obv in this hand the raise call line will be of higher variance than the shove line. We see with the ICM evaluation that each desicion is pretty identical as far as their EVs go, so choosing the best short term "low variance" line would be a no brainer.

If we opt to make another desicion heavily factoring a short term considerations such as reducing variance, ICM will help you see how much you are giving up by making a "second best" desicion and you can go from there to evaluate whether you think that's acceptable or not.

Some so called "low variance" desicions will give up so much that they not only give up EV, but also reduce our chances of cashing in the tournament thereby increasing our variance! (dem blinds gobble gobble dem blinds) An example would be passing up a big edge for a possible double up.

[Doobs]

I'm interested to know how many of these $550 stts our hero actually plays.

Not many, they barely ever start on betfair.  I don't even play that many STTs anymore.  But this thread has confirmed what I thought originally.  ie I probably played it bad, ad he played it well.  Well when I say originally I meant at the start of the thread.  Originally in the hand was like Wtf and wasn't nearly as complimentary about his play.

And I probably play upwards of 10 tournies(mainly multis) each time I sit down, and any one of them could end up with a situation like this, and I'll have a better idea what to do next time.  And maybe next time it will be late in a GUKPT or similar, and it may be even more important to get it right.