AA vs agriffrod

[NigDawG]

no special dynamic between us and nothing out of the ordinary happened so far on this table today. i've made 1 other 3bet pre ante so far on this table but it wasn't showndown. no squeezes as of yet and very little showdown tbh. hijack is also a reg fwiw.

hero playing ~4k, villain playing ~6k, hijack playing ~3.5k

blinds 25/50

hijack opens 125, villain flats sb, hero 3bets  from the bb to 450

hijack folds, sb calls

flop 

villain checks, hero bets 650, villain calls

turn 

villain checks, hero checks (thoughts??)

river 

villain bets 1450, hero??

i checked the turn thinking he would likely fold out everything i beat bar KK and QdXd if i bet here again (though wouldn't of thought any QdXd hands are there given preflop; and if they are woulda thought they c/r flop), and i should now be able to make a good value bet on the river. however, i wasn't expecting him to bet the river himself and if he did, not for as much as he has done.

not really sure of what air he can ever have here given preflop + flop c/c. and then cant see many hands he can be value betting worse than my own (specifically KK i guess)

so basically i want to fold

thoughts?

[George2Loose]

This is a pretty weird spot. I mean you've made a pretty decent sized c-bet. Not sure what he's calling with on the flop that he value bets on the river this way?? Whole hand is played really strange by agriff. I have played some hands with him before and he's fairly solid. Checking back the turn has left you in a awkward spot here.

I think I sigh call.

[NigDawG]

1time middy analysis?

[Cottonbud]

I think his range is pretty polarised here to QQ/JJ, QJdd, 910dd on the river. Worse hand he could value bet perhaps AQdd? Not sure what else except airballs.

He could be bluffing his missed draw hands/floats (Suited connectors like 76s) to make you fold AK/1010 etc.

[NigDawG]

I think his range is pretty polarised here to QQ/JJ, QJdd, 910dd on the river. Worse hand he could value bet perhaps AQdd? Not sure what else except airballs.

He could be bluffing his missed draw (Suited connector type hands like 76s) to make you fold AK/1010 etc.

i had the   and i wasn't expecting him to be peeling the 3bet OOP with 67s/9Ts etc pre

[Cottonbud]

I think his range is pretty polarised here to QQ/JJ, QJdd, 910dd on the river. Worse hand he could value bet perhaps AQdd? Not sure what else except airballs.

He could be bluffing his missed draw (Suited connector type hands like 76s) to make you fold AK/1010 etc.

i had the   and i wasn't expecting him to be peeling the 3bet OOP with 67s/9Ts etc pre

AH Ok Yeah now I see hes OOP didn't see the Ace of diamonds. Makes me think now he has a set probably JJ. Must be a fold right?

Ps - I need to read these posts more carefully. Didn't even see he was the SB thought he was the button. Neither did I see the Ace of diamonds. No wonder I have to wear glasses now

[Cottonbud]

sigh call, just in case he's gone for really thin value with TT or something, because surely you can't have AA, right?

Really? I honestly think its a fold. Due to villains position the action and board texture. I can't see him bluffing in this spot or going for thin value, unless he puts Chris on AK/TT exactly and is trying to make him fold. Surely he checks 10-10 and all other hands that have showdown value.

[NigDawG]

sigh call, just in case he's gone for really thin value with TT or something, because surely you can't have AA, right?

you're right in that i'm probs underrepped but can't see him betting this river with TT or 99 tbh. think we can def see him show up with KK though

[pleno1]

don't think he ever has 1010 here, I think he just begs for a showdown with 1010. don't think he ever has 56/56/67dd here as he prob shows more interest on flop/turn. kk is a possibility, but would only ever take it into consideration if i had a note that he would flat oop with premium/ he was very trappy. It's such a gay spot as hand is totally underrepped here, but I guess I agree that bet-check-bet is a good line with AA on this board, although I would find it hard I think it's a sighhhhh fold.

[action man]

i dont think he is setmining pre. Your hand just screams strength think he defo has JJ/QQ/KK take your pick. Maybe with KK he just c/c's river. dunno tough one.

[railtard1]

lol aggrif is not solid, i think that term is wrong. Aggrif is VERY good. He is aggro post antes, and hard to play both pre and post antes.

I would expect him to have JJ here a decent amount of the time, maybe QQ... but i doubt i fold the river. pretty gay spot. 

[outragous76]

your problem here is that it looks liek you gave up on the turn

3bet pre
healthy c bet flop
check behind on the turn

Kinda looks like you might have AK?

However, he may well have caught on the turn and river.

The following are questions for the purpose of dicussion..................

If he has QQ/KK, does he not raise flop bet? Or does he hope to get to show down?

Given that you check the Q on the turn, is there no way that you could have QQ and this would stop him value betting most of his hands  on the river if he doesnt hold it? I know that is playing a little scared but still a consideration for a check call on his behalf?

I just think his bet is very healthy and he is unlikely to be bluffing into you here. Probably a sigh call for me - but i think you are behind. The only hands you beat are KK (does he not ship that pre?) and misssed diamond draws. How often does he peel suited connectors OOP pre pre ante? Im just not seeing it myself

[George2Loose]

lol aggrif is not solid, i think that term is wrong. Aggrif is VERY good. He is aggro post antes, and hard to play both pre and post antes.

I would expect him to have JJ here a decent amount of the time, maybe QQ... but i doubt i fold the river. pretty gay spot. 

Just talking about my experience of playing him. Obv you have spent  way more time with playing him!!

[Doobs]

I don't see why you would play it like you are trying to induce a bluff, and then not call.

 

[AlexMartin]

take this with a pinch of salt as i dont frequent these games but with nearly  2.5k out there and 3k back doesnt this have to be a turn ship? i mean he can deffo view our turn jam as a barrelcard, right?