General Election betting

[ripple11]

After last night I just can't see how Cameron is now going to achieve a bigger swing than Maggie coming to power in 1979,to get to the magic 326  (another 117 seats)....so a hung parliament it is I reckon.

Hung parliament was 7/4 the day before the Nick, the king maker, Clegg had his moment in the spotlight. Now its 5/4.

However you can get 5/2 on  "David Cameron (or any other Tory politician) to be Prime Minister in Hung Parliament in 2010" with William Hill.


"The party which has the strongest mandate from the British people will have the first right to seek to govern," Clegg said......surely the Tories.

[Madone]

Do the lib dems have any chance whatsoever of getting into power?

[ripple11]

Do the lib dems have any chance whatsoever of getting into power?

only through a hung parliament.......you're got more chance of winning the lottery 2 weeks running, than them achieving an outright victory.

[thetank]

I agree with AndrewT that now is a good time to get on the overall Tory majority line while the country is still drunk on Clegg.

Interesting historical stat is that where the Torys have had a lead in the polls at the start of the election campaign, that lead has always at least doubled by the end of the campaign. This is mostly attributed to them having a much bigger wodge of cash to spend when it counts.

Also, I think media over hype the hung parliament thing coz it's a good talking point/stick to beat people with.

Tory majority imo. Yeah, it might be a hung parliament, but that's why they call it gambling.

[henrik777]

Historically there have never been tv debates to influence people so history is somewhat tempered.

Sandy

[thetank]

Historically there have never been tv debates to influence people so history is somewhat tempered.

Sandy

True

Another factor when looking at old polls is that the polling methods weren't as sophisticated as they are now.

[Bongo]

The way the voting works is odd - Labour could end up with the least votes (of the 3 majors) and the most seats.

Also Clegg didn't clarify what he meant by the biggest mandate (i.e. most seats or most votes) so it's not exactly clear who he would support.

[ripple11]

 Hung Parliament : around 4/6 this morning.

 Most seats : Tories around 1/4.

Will Hill still 5/2 on Cameron as PM in a hung.

(3/1 if you think Clegg will prop up Brown)

[Bongo]

Is there a price on LD/Lab with Brown ousted?

[ripple11]

Is there a price on LD/Lab with Brown ousted?

Should either David Cameron or Gordon Brown cease to be leader of their respective party but either party forms a majority or minority Government under any other MP as Prime Minster, this market will be settled as ‘Any Other PM / Any Other Government’. In the event of no Prime Minister or government being appointed after the next general election and before another general election, this market will be declared void. 

 this is 14/1 on betfair

[thetank]

This morning; 2.98 on your Tory overall majority with Betfair.

[Rod Paradise]

What's the odds of them all getting on a plane and it crashing (a la the Polish government) - if they're less than the odds of the Euromillions I'll put my £2 on that & pray.

[ripple11]

 Hung Parliament : around 4/6 this morning.

 Most seats : Tories around 1/4.

Will Hill still 5/2 on Cameron as PM in a hung.

(3/1 if you think Clegg will prop up Brown)

both 9/4 now 

[redarmi]

Not sure a Tory majority is going to be value anytime soon.  i agree the Clegg thing is probably being overhyped slightly and no doubt the major parties will go for the Liberals now but any swing from tory to LibDems will almost certainly lead to a hung parliament.  I bet the 5/4 on Friday night and it is 4/6 now.  I honestly think 1/4 would be closer to the mark and if we went to the polls with the opinion polls a s they stand now then no overall majority should be 1/20 or so.

[TightEnd]

Interesting Newsnight blog


Are Lib Dems failing to take advantage of surge?

Michael Crick | 18:48 UK time, Monday, 19 April 2010

Are the Liberal Democrats capable of taking proper advantage of their sudden surge in the polls?

Not if my trip to Bournemouth West today is anything to go by.

Statistically it's number 25 on the Lib Dem target list, and should be an even juicier prospect given that the retiring MP Sir John Butterfill was disgraced in the recent Channel 4 lobbying expose.

Yet the Lib Dems seem to be campaigning as if the seat is sewn up - for the Tories.

The only Lib Dem posters I saw all day were at the agent's house, and at the house which serves as the campaign (which was deserted apart from the owner of the house and her family). And even those posters didn't have the candidate's name.

The Lib Dem agent admitted to me that he couldn't afford to spend up to the full expense limit on his campaign - roughly £9,000. They have been given no extra resources by the Lib Dem high command. Neither Nick Clegg nor Vince Cable has visited the seat recently.

And the agent admitted to me that Bournemouth activists have been urged instead to help Annette Brooke, who is defending the neighbouring seat of Mid Dorset and North Poole.

There was no sense in Bournemouth that the Lib Dem campaign should step up a gear after last Thursday's debate. This is bizarre. On all the polls since Thursday it's a seat the Lib Dems could or should win.

Unless Annette Brooke has been a hopeless MP, and I have no reason to think she has, the Lib Dems should turn the party supertanker round quickly. Her campaign should be switching people, effort and money to Bournemouth West straight away, not the other way round.

My experience in Bournemouth West shows just how short of resources the Lib Dems have been, and until now, short of ambition too.

They have been aiming for far too a narrow range of seats to exploit this surge properly. And many of those are constituencies belonging to sitting MPs, not places where they can make big advances.


I'm thinking a contrarian approach back towards an overall majority might be the bet before the second debate on the chance that Clegg now has high expectations built in and can't surprise positviely from here