EW betting...not bored anymore

[Nico29]

Two to forget kinda, well the first one deffo.

Results:

Balance=42.83 Points (40 Point Starting Bank)

400 HAM- 1PT EW DYNAMIC IDOL@5-1-UNPLACED (42.83)

415 CARTMEL- 1 PT EW ACE HIGH BLUE@3-1-2ND=1.6 POINTS RETURNED (44.43)

Balance=44.43 Points.

[Nico29]

Meh...just....meh.

Balance=44.43 Points.

Results:

700 DON- 2 PTS EW ISTISHAARA@5-2-UNPLACED (44.43)

                1 PT EW PANDORO DE LAGO@4-1-UNPLACED (44.43)

905 LEP- 1 PT EW POINTILLISTE@10-1-UNPLACED(44.43)

Balance=44.43 Points.

[Nico29]

A bit annoyed with this challenge at the moment, i know i'm making mistakes regarding selections and stake sizes, after today i think i'll take a few days off to study some trends and analyse my stats.

Having said all this i still feel my selections are almost always +ev and i am getting quite unlucky regarding seconds and horses running under par, yet i'd rather rely on making every deciosn correctly, rather than most.

I just feel i probably am spending too much time on this while not doing everything correcty, that will change as i am determined to make this 200 point target.

Just the 3 today, going to mix it up with an ew double, something i probably need to be doing a little more.

The big price selection is available at 66s with corals, but gl getting on with that rabble.

Balance=44.43 Points.

635 PON- 2 PTS EW EL VIENTO@3-1 (40.43)*

                 0.5 PT EW SLEIGHTS BOY@50-1 (39.43)

905 KILBEGGAN- 1 PT EW DES RES@11-4 (37.43)*

*=0.5 PT EW DOUBLE (36.43)

Balance=36.43 Points.

[Girgy85]

Off to ponte races nico got any selections? Heard go go green in 7.35 at 9/1!

[Nico29]

Off to ponte races nico got any selections? Heard go go green in 7.35 at 9/1!

Well my selections both lost-ran like dogs...that is all.

 Glglgl!

[Girgy85]

Done fk all so far! Lumping on mr wolf in the 9.10! Course and distance ew specialist

[Girgy85]

Single
16 Jul 2010 - 9:10 Pontefract - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed!
Mr Wolf @ 7/1  EW @ 1/5 1-3
Stake : £20.00 (£10.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £104.00

[Nico29]

A bit annoyed with this challenge at the moment, i know i'm making mistakes regarding selections and stake sizes, after today i think i'll take a few days off to study some trends and analyse my stats.

Having said all this i still feel my selections are almost always +ev and i am getting quite unlucky regarding seconds and horses running under par, yet i'd rather rely on making every deciosn correctly, rather than most.

I just feel i probably am spending too much time on this while not doing everything correcty, that will change as i am determined to make this 200 point target.

Just the 3 today, going to mix it up with an ew double, something i probably need to be doing a little more.

The big price selection is available at 66s with corals, but gl getting on with that rabble.

Balance=44.43 Points.

635 PON- 2 PTS EW EL VIENTO@3-1 (40.43)*

                 0.5 PT EW SLEIGHTS BOY@50-1 (39.43)

905 KILBEGGAN- 1 PT EW DES RES@11-4 (37.43)*

*=0.5 PT EW DOUBLE (36.43)

Balance=36.43 Points.

Am now making the 905 race selection a 2 point ew bet.

So in addition to the prev 1 pt ew bet@11-4:

Balance=36.43 Points.

905 KILBEGGAN 1 PT EW DES RES@3-1 (34.43)

Balance=34.43 Points.

[Nico29]

A bit annoyed with this challenge at the moment, i know i'm making mistakes regarding selections and stake sizes, after today i think i'll take a few days off to study some trends and analyse my stats.

Having said all this i still feel my selections are almost always +ev and i am getting quite unlucky regarding seconds and horses running under par, yet i'd rather rely on making every deciosn correctly, rather than most.

I just feel i probably am spending too much time on this while not doing everything correcty, that will change as i am determined to make this 200 point target.

Just the 3 today, going to mix it up with an ew double, something i probably need to be doing a little more.

The big price selection is available at 66s with corals, but gl getting on with that rabble.

Balance=44.43 Points.

635 PON- 2 PTS EW EL VIENTO@3-1 (40.43)*

                 0.5 PT EW SLEIGHTS BOY@50-1 (39.43)

905 KILBEGGAN- 1 PT EW DES RES@11-4 (37.43)*

*=0.5 PT EW DOUBLE (36.43)

Balance=36.43 Points.

Am now making the 905 race selection a 2 point ew bet.

So in addition to the prev 1 pt ew bet@11-4:

Balance=36.43 Points.

905 KILBEGGAN 1 PT EW DES RES@3-1 (34.43)

Balance=34.43 Points.

Result is that that was 4th and thus unplaced-meh.

Balance=34.43 Points.

Will hopefully come back in a week or 2 with some new tactics, cos i just don't think this is working, too scattergun without enough discipline on stake sizes.

[chezzboy]

The first at Newton Abbot is disgusting. Wheres the value?

[Nico29]

The first at Newton Abbot is disgusting. Wheres the value?

Yeah filthy looking race, nice spot.

Tbh nothing mass stands out right now though i'm sure one will nearer the off, but obv by then the value will almost disappear.

Right now according to betfair the likeliest most place vaue wld be found with gulf punch@17-2.

An exposed sort, but it knows how to place in this sorta race and ppl asking for odds on the place tells its own story.

Even then tho liquidity wise betfair isnt great on this race.

Feeling if i wanted a nice safe ew bet id go on gulf punch fully expecting a return without ever expecting it to nail the fav.

If i felt a bit like punting i might go 4 a newcomer like either 0cean club@14s or Othello@28s.

Like i say nearer the time is prob when something will stand out.

Need to get bk into all this again, just gotta do the research and go through all the figs again, just cant be bothered!

[Nico29]

The first at Newton Abbot is disgusting. Wheres the value?

Yeah filthy looking race, nice spot.

Tbh nothing mass stands out right now though i'm sure one will nearer the off, but obv by then the value will almost disappear.

Right now according to betfair the likeliest most place vaue wld be found with gulf punch@17-2.

An exposed sort, but it knows how to place in this sorta race and ppl asking for odds on the place tells its own story.

Even then tho liquidity wise betfair isnt great on this race.

Feeling if i wanted a nice safe ew bet id go on gulf punch fully expecting a return without ever expecting it to nail the fav.

If i felt a bit like punting i might go 4 a newcomer like either 0cean club@14s or Othello@28s.

Like i say nearer the time is prob when something will stand out.

Need to get bk into all this again, just gotta do the research and go through all the figs again, just cant be bothered!

FML.

Forgot about this, gulf punch won @ 8-1. The safe ew bet wins again.

[Nico29]

Still way too lazy to do this properly, i.e analyse stats, put in mass volume again and maybe even a little bit of research.

Having said all that i've still got a couple of selections i really like today so am gonna punt them and hopefully get some extra bucks.

Starting balance=40 Points.

Balance=34.43 Points.

210 RED- 1PT EW JADE@5-1 (32.43)

250 MUSS- 2PTS EW SAXONETTE@7-2 (28.43)

1 PT EW DOUBLE (26.43)

The first selection is very strong on the place part on betfair, the second is miles clear of the field as second fav in its race, and the place price that we get of 1.7 is only 1.36 on betfair, we basically get twice it's place price, valueeeeeee.

Time to win some mad ones.

[acc2020]

Followed your thread for a while now.

Just a couple of questions.

Why bet each way at short prices such as 7/4 when a place will make you a big loss? You only make a profit if they're over 5/1 if placed.

At 7/4  £100EW returns £135 from £200 staked if placed (1/5 odds)
On Betfair the place may be 1.25 , so in your eyes would that represent value?

The way i see this particular example is that it would be an unwise bet at 7/4 despite the place terms being slightly better.Would a win bet only at smaller stakes be more wise ?Interested to hear your views

[acc2020]

In the 250 muss Saxonette is clear 2nd fav like you say , but only a win will make a profit , a place = small loss.

So in this particuar race the only way to make profit is to pick the winner.EW on either of the first 2 in the betting would result in a loss.