EW betting...not bored anymore

[Nico29]

Followed your thread for a while now.

Just a couple of questions.

Why bet each way at short prices such as 7/4 when a place will make you a big loss? You only make a profit if they're over 5/1 if placed.

At 7/4  £100EW returns £135 from £200 staked if placed (1/5 odds)
On Betfair the place may be 1.25 , so in your eyes would that represent value?

The way i see this particular example is that it would be an unwise bet at 7/4 despite the place terms being slightly better.Would a win bet only at smaller stakes be more wise ?Interested to hear your views

In the 250 muss Saxonette is clear 2nd fav like you say , but only a win will make a profit , a place = small loss.

So in this particuar race the only way to make profit is to pick the winner.EW on either of the first 2 in the betting would result in a loss.

Yeah it's all about value, simple as that.

Betting on a horse getting 1.7 on the place part when it is actually a 1.35 shot, represents HUGE value.

You don't bet each way just to make a profit from the horse if it places but doesn't win.

You bet each way because, imo, the place part is value and therefore worth doing. You should look at the bet as two seperate bets, the win part, and the place part.

Obviously there is probably no point in the bet in the first place if you think the horse has no chance whatsoever of winning, however sometimes that is the only way to get the place value.

In these circs, if poss- laying off the win party on betfair would be ideal.

Anyway results and meh:

Balance=26.43 Points.

210 RED- 1PT EW JADE@5-1-LOST (26.43)

250 MUSS- 2PTS EW SAXONETTE@7-2 -3RD=3.4 PTS RETURNED(29.83)

1 PT EW DOUBLE-LOST (29.83)

[Nico29]

Bringing back this diary of sorts to help me keep records.

I'm very determined to proves this form of betting works, i had yet another betting account closed recently and am determined to hit the books where it hurts.

Still not been bothered to go through all the stats, i've just decided this didn't work as well as it should have- due to general spewing in the process of selecting and a general scattergun approach. Discipline ftw.

Even then i didn't do much wrong bar run bad!

But i'm always seeing filthy ew value every day and therefore i feel i need to get back into this again. So i will, i'll just be more selective.

Balance carried over from last time is 29.83 Points from the 40 point starting bank. I still am determined to get this bank up to 200 points.

Just three horses today in very bad ew races. Both races only have 8 entries, thus no non runners pretty please.

The first two are both unexposed types up against an extremely short priced favourite, strong on betfair, it really looks a 3 horse race and i don't back odds on.

The last one is mega strong on betfair and although relatively exposed looks a place cert in a race that won't need trees pulled up to win.

225 LEP= 1 PT EW WARNING FLAG@9-2 (27.83)

                0.5 PT EW RULING@9-2 (26.83)

350 SOUTH= 0.5 PT EW LAY CLAIM@4-1 (25.83)

Balance=25.83 Points.

[Nico29]

Results:

225 LEP= 1 PT EW WARNING FLAG@9-2- 2ND=1.9 PTS RETURNED(27.73)

                0.5 PT EW RULING@9-2-LOST (27.73)

350 SOUTH= 0.5 PT EW LAY CLAIM@4-1-2ND=0.9 PTS RETURNED (28.63)

Balance=28.63 Points.

[Nico29]

Feeling confident about these today, all strong on betfair and in the first race the place value is immense.


BALANCE=28.63 Points.

215 PUN= 1 PT EW ROSS NA RIGH@11-2 (26.63)

                1PT EW CROM ABU@11-2 (24.63)

230 YAR= 0.5 PT EW RAW SPIRIT@6-1 (23.63)

240 TAUNTON= 0.5 PT EW TIGNELLO@10-1 (22.63)

+2X 0.25EW TREBLES (21.63)

BALANCE=21.63 POINTS.

[Nico29]

Meh first race second and third places, pesky odds on favourite!

Just in case both of the next two miraculously win i'll stick a 0.25 pt ew double on the 230 and 240 selections.

Balance now 21.13 points.

[Nico29]

Puke. Dettori gave that a terrible ride, totally gave up on third when he realised he cldnt win. Superb, gg.

The 1/4 shot was almost turned over by a horse that sounds like a poker player, little rocky.

Least i learnt to avoid frankie on speculative picks. Come on last selection today, win the lot please.

[Nico29]

Results:

BALANCE=21.13 Points.

215 PUN= 1 PT EW ROSS NA RIGH@11-2-3RD=2.1 PTS RETURNED (23.23)

                1PT EW CROM ABU@11-2-2ND@7-1 BPG=2.4 PTS RETURNED (25.63)

230 YAR= 0.5 PT EW RAW SPIRIT@6-1-LOST (25.63)

+0.25 EW DBLE=LOST (25.63)

240 TAUNTON= 0.5 PT EW TIGNELLO@10-1-3RD=1.5 PTS RETURNED (27.13)

+2X 0.25EW TREBLES-LOST (27.13)


BALANCE=27.13 POINTS.

Feel unlucky today, all my selections were beaten by worthy winners, yet if raw spirit places i turn a smallish healthyish profit, dsnt so gg 1.5 points.

Onwards and upwards tmrw!

[Nico29]

Nothing amazing sticks out today but these few are all place value in races with an odds on favourite and lots of nags without much hope, hopefully one of them can bink a win too.

BALANCE=27.13.

230 NOTT-0.5PT EW CHARLES CAMOIN@11-1 (26.13)

                  0.5PT EW 0.5 PT EW WAYWARD GLANCE@33-1 (25.13)

240 MUSS- 0.5 PT EW 0.5 PT EW OPUS MAXIMUS@5-2 (24.13)

BALANCE=24.13





                 

[Nico29]

Omg 2 winners and 1 place, in fact a 1-2 in that race.

No ew double today grrrrrr.


Results and feeling better!


BALANCE=24.13 POINTS.

230 NOTT-0.5PT EW CHARLES CAMOIN@11-1-1ST=7.6PTS RETURNED (31.73)

                 0.5PT EW WAYWARD GLANCE@33-1-2ND=3.8 PTS RETURNED(35.53)

240 MUSS- 0.5 PT EW OPUS MAXIMUS@5-2-1ST=2.5 PTS RETURNED (38.03)

BALANCE=38.03 POINTS

(40 POINT STARTING BANK)

[Nico29]

This next race is the perfect example of a dirty ew race, 8 runners, an even money fav and place value galore.

Tbh there is a case for a few of em here, but i'll just trust the strength on betfair and side with the 2nd fav.

BALANCE=38.03 POINTS.

430 FONT- 1 PT EW MTPOCKETS@7-2 (36.03)

BALANCE=36.03 POINTS.

[Acidmouse]

ohh nice put a small bet on this one.

[Nico29]

Winner winner chicken dinner.

Result:

BALANCE=36.03 POINTS.

430 FONT- 1 PT EW MTPOCKETS@7-2-1st=6.2 POINTS RETURNED (42.23)

BALANCE=42.23 POINTS.

Def another selection in a bit and perhaps one at wolves tonight too.

Boy it feels nice to be back in the black again!

[Nico29]

The fav in the 525 has tony 'best jumps jock imo by a mile' mccoy on it. Thus the price is prob shorter than it should be.

This gives some value to the 2nd and the 3rd favs, esp on the place part.

The third fav looks the choice to me here, unexposed, raced once, won once.


Balnce=42.23 Points.

525 STRAT- 0.5 PT EW SIZING SANTIAGO@6-1 (41.23)

Balance=41.23 Points.

[Nico29]

Well that ran well...not.

Might have another at wolves but tbh probably not, although1 or 2 races have potential, there appears to be nothing standing out.

Balance=42.23 Points.

525 STRAT- 0.5 PT EW SIZING SANTIAGO@6-1-Lost. (41.23)

Balance=41.23 Points.

[Nico29]

Cldnt resist a small punt.

Balance=41.23.

720 WOLV- 0.5 PT EW ROI DU BOEUF@6-1 (40.23)

Balance=40.23 POINTS.