Good idea/bad idea?

[skolsuper]

.

[Cf]

Pros

- We have showdown value against 22/3x/4x
- We win ~$130 if he folds

Cons

- We have showdown value against 22/3x/4x
- We lose $377.50 if he calls

So obv comes down to how often he calls. And this is where it becomes very difficult to answer a heads up post because I've no idea what sort of dynamic you've got going.

[TheChipPrince]

OK I'll rephrase the question: What is his likely range, how much of his range is calling, how much is folding, how much do we beat anyway?

Does he call with a bare K/Q, 9/10 hearts often enough?  Surely folds a J>worse?

Are you hoping this move helps out in future pots if he has you down a bit crazy?

[outragous76]

In terms of the spot - this is one of those bets where you either have it or you dont

Lets assume "it" is the Ah  - as you probs dont do it with

So which Ah hands do you call pre with, and bet the turn with?

Would you not bet the flop with AhKx after he checks?

i think this should get thru most of the time here - unless you are repping his hand

if he calls its prob a spite call with KK or QQ

[boldie]

he will call with 10h, surely? You're bet on the river is wayyy too big for me.

I doubt that he has a bare J as he 3bet from OOP pre-flop so I'd expect to be well behind here and probably called by a fair few hands....it's the size of your bet that would make me suspicious more than anything. Why that much on the river?

[EvilPie]

Looks like a pretty shitty idea to me although I'm sure you had your reasons. Misclick maybe.

Whatever your reads are on oppo surely isn't as important here as what he thinks of you?

Are you ever really doing this with the ?

Do you often make massive overshoves with da nuts?

Are you ever making this spew with anything but da nuts?

I can't see him calling you without a heart in his hand but tbh I'd struggle to pass if I had any flush here.

There's a pretty good chance of being spite called by AK here anyway just because villain can't figure out wtf you're up to and wants to have a look.

[Sack it off]

Hands that check the flop and flat that turn are;

AQ w/Ah, AQ w/o Ah, AJ w/ Ah, QJ, AT w/ Ah, TT with , QT with , QT no FD and AT no FD

I just dunno what you get to fold here. Also disagree with this being a spot to overbet bluff, in this spot "hero's gonna hero". When you overbet jam you are pretty much only repping 9hTh. I think an 80% pot bet will be just as effective and will fold out the hands that were too stubborn to fold on the turn such as  QT with no FD and QJ no FD.
So basically I think the hands you are attempting to fold out with an overbet jam are the same range of hands that fold to an 80% pot bet.
I considering pocket pairs like 88 99 77 with a heart but can't be sure he calls the turn as he would have a tough river spot if he improves.

Disclaimer: Found it difficult thinking that hand through so may very well change my post later on today

[SuuPRlim]

I have no idea of you image or the dynamic with this guy/your history with him, but if shove polarizes you then I dont think its a good play because i've you'r literally polarized to nuts or air he can flick a call in with virtually any heart profitably. i.e there are loads more combo's of bluffs in ur range now as you rep such a narrow value range.

If you're not polarized here, as in could feesibly be shoving for value with     etc, or a really cool merge with say the   then its definatley a much more profitable play.

Its tricky to accuratley asses a range here because he has high 3bet % in history but hasnt been 3betting at all this match (even though soon in) i spose hands like     are obv a worry, but i really dont see him 3betting any hand with the   that doesn't bet the flop? seems odd he'd  3bet   / , and really strange that any suited   combo wont bet the flop.  And on the same tune he has AK in this spot hardly even. I think the hand's he'll show up with most likely are JJ/TT/99/88 with hearts but ofc there has to a bunch of 78/98/67 combo's in there but again he isnt likely to 3ball   and not cbet the flop and the likihood of him 3balling offsuit connecter I ASSUME will be lower. And its tough to think of other heart comb o's in his range aside from the lower pairs....

In answer to OP

Pro's * -
He has only a few flushes in his range.
He doesnt have that many non-flush value hands either (aside from TT/88 etc w/ no hearts)
Its fantastic for you to have a range to shove with on these kind of boards, so if you are polarised now you wont be in the next spot
YOU HAVE NO SHOWDOWN VALUE AT ALL.
Cons * -
Ridic high varience
If you are polarised here then he could even hero you with 77+ no heart


My vote. Good idea.

[MANTIS01]

I'd want to figure out the range of hands he calls a $129.63 river bet with that he mucks to a $377.50 river bet....and if there's no discernable difference, which there isn't, I'd wonder why I'm betting $377.50.

[DMorgan]

TAG villain is almost never c/c'ing turn and also c/c'ing river with the Ah and I think its unlikely that he's checking the river with the aswell.

Looks fine to me

[SuuPRlim]

I'd want to figure out the range of hands he calls a $129.63 river bet with that he mucks to a $377.50 river bet....and if there's no discernable difference, which there isn't, I'd wonder why I'm betting $377.50.

There is definatley a difference. If he has nutz or air here then there is no difference because any hand with a heart or even most can call profitably.
If he has a range here that includes a shove for value with smaller flushes then the extra $240 makes its  very difficult to call profitably with the  , or   , or even   .

[DMorgan]

I'd want to figure out the range of hands he calls a $129.63 river bet with that he mucks to a $377.50 river bet....and if there's no discernable difference, which there isn't, I'd wonder why I'm betting $377.50.

wanna play some heads up?

[outragous76]

I'd want to figure out the range of hands he calls a $129.63 river bet with that he mucks to a $377.50 river bet....and if there's no discernable difference, which there isn't, I'd wonder why I'm betting $377.50.

wanna play some heads up?

 

[Rupert]

I doubt villain is perceptive enough to check a flush draw for deception on the flop so I don't think he has a 2 card flush hand and it's likely he'd cbet any Ah hand on the flop as well.  Likewise I don't think you can have these hands in your range although you are more likely to hold the Ah than him on the flop.

I think if you bet the turn you should be betting every river since when he checks that flop imo he likely holds a hand he doesn't want to be blown off of that has decent showdown value vs you because most kings and air hands he would just bet.  So he can have something like 99-JJ, QJ QT Q9 64 K3s etc that sort of thing.  But these are all hands he's going to call the turn with and can get folds on the river quite a lot with.  Sooo since you checked back flop I think on the turn once he calls he can still have JJ/QJ hands but more likely holdings are prob Qx type hands with either a straight/flush/both draw.

So on the river theres 32*2 + 36*2 = 136 in the pot.  I think our value range for a smaller bet could be as wide as AT here given that his range is pretty weak and pretty queen heavy IMO.  I guess we are more likely to have the Ah and he's more likely to have the but he doesn't have the nearly as much as we have the Ah.  I think he very rarely has the Ah.  I think a bet of $118 or even $74 or something gives you more fold equity  because it is pretty rare for us to overbet jam with the Ah if he views us as a regular and also it is particularly suspicious when he is probably aware that his range is weak.  So I wouldn't be surprised if he looked you up with QJ and I think I like the line overall if we bet smaller on this river.  I think any river is a good river for us to bet as well which makes the turn bet good.

[MANTIS01]

I'd want to figure out the range of hands he calls a $129.63 river bet with that he mucks to a $377.50 river bet....and if there's no discernable difference, which there isn't, I'd wonder why I'm betting $377.50.

There is definatley a difference. If he has nutz or air here then there is no difference because any hand with a heart or even most can call profitably.
If he has a range here that includes a shove for value with smaller flushes then the extra $240 makes its  very difficult to call profitably with the  , or  , or even  .

Like you said, the $377.50 bet is designed to fold out mostly all of villain's range including some flushes. So why would hero make the $377.50 bet again?