ICM sucks

[MC]

Two sucky spots from yesterday, both on 180-man final tables (more chips in hand #2 as it's a rebuy 180-man)

Hand #1: No read except the guy is a random. He got a huge stack after sb shoved into his AK in the bb recently.

Hand #2: Another random, seemingly competent except for calling a raise from big blind with JQ vs me when he should have folded/3bjammed. Open shoved K6os for 20 big blinds to eliminate 4th place. Has shoved every time it's exploitable, so his range is very possibly ATC.
              The short-stack was the nittiest nit from Nittsville, playing something like 6/3 and seemed oblivious to blinding away throughout final table


PokerStars Game #47676872305: Tournament #297947708, $11+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XVII (2000/4000) - 2010/08/04 1:23:29 WET [2010/08/03 20:23:29 ET]
Table '297947708 19' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: NoOl3Ru (45586 in chips)
Seat 4: Gruaiggorm (13228 in chips)
Seat 5: Ricardo_Rico (11497 in chips)
Seat 6: ChKo (49914 in chips)
Seat 8: superkuglen (99359 in chips)
Seat 9: epitomised (50416 in chips)
NoOl3Ru: posts the ante 400
Gruaiggorm: posts the ante 400
Ricardo_Rico: posts the ante 400
ChKo: posts the ante 400
superkuglen: posts the ante 400
epitomised: posts the ante 400
Ricardo_Rico: posts small blind 2000
ChKo: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to epitomised [ ]
superkuglen: raises 94959 to 98959 and is all-in
epitomised:

PokerStars Game #47678473856: Tournament #297950620, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXII (5000/10000) - 2010/08/04 2:09:13 WET [2010/08/03 21:09:13 ET]
Table '297950620 18' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 6: epitomised (227507 in chips)
Seat 8: best56489 (53936 in chips)
Seat 9: elfky (555057 in chips)
epitomised: posts the ante 1000
best56489: posts the ante 1000
elfky: posts the ante 1000
epitomised: posts small blind 5000
best56489: posts big blind 10000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to epitomised [ ]
elfky: raises 544057 to 554057 and is all-in
epitomised:

[GreekStein]

I guess I don't mind too much folding the first.

I'm not passing the second one.

[StuartHopkin]

No doubt ICM wise im wrong, but I dont think Im passing either. Im too busy dancing.

[Cf]

Not passing either I don't think. Hand #1 we're still a few places off the big money so this seems like a nice spot to go for the win. Second hand we're just too far ahead of his range and he has a good chip advantage so use this spot to take CL.

[TheRaise]

Both calls for me.  Play to win on the final table.

[the rage]

I would call in hand 1 and fold in hand 2. In the second hand you will almost certainlty move up to 2nd if you stay out of the big stacks way. Also, he's probably aware of the image that he's created so i wouldn't be too suprised to see him shoving with a big hand this time. AK, QQ maybe. You still have enough chips to take the big stack on after the shorty is out of the way.

[Longy]

I am calling both, I would imagine sngwiz disagrees with me given reasonable ranges. Then again I am happy to take slight -EV spotS according to wiz as it is just too fking tight on finals imo.

Reasoning wiz fails massively on chip utility spots as if we win hand 1, we got so many great +ev spots battering the table round with our big stack it is worth taking the -ev spot. In certain spots we got exploited to fk by the chip leader if we pass and have a tonnes of -ev spots down the line.

[sovietsong]

I would pass the AK as we have seen from my previous post about the 45 man i hate AK and look to fold it in every possible spot.  The JJ I call.

Interested to know some of the thought processes as I'm trying to play more 45 man sngs these days so this kind of discussion is super. 

[ ] I love reading about PLO cash hands

[EvilPie]

Don't care what ICM says they're both calls for me.

The problem with doing everything strictly by ICM is that it becomes exploitable.

If someone knows that your calling range is QQ+ then they can shove on you every single hand.

At some point you have to adjust and take a non ICM correct decision anyway so you might as well do it now while you've got a good hand.

Actually I've just looked on OPR and see that the nittyest nit from nittville finished second. I'm guessing this means you lost meaning you should have folded.

[outragous76]

I think the first 1 is a super snap high five do a little dance.  The payout jumps are still small, comparative stacks (only 1 real shorty), mean ICM has less impact, and the double thru and CL when you win your flip/hold when you have him to 30% is >>>> for ICM impact than thoughts of laddering.


Hand 2. From and ICM point of view this is probs closer to a fold (not done the maths, just gut feel), but im still calling 100% of the time due to meta game factors if CL shover is  a reg

[MC]

Ok, cool. I didn't see a way around calling both of them either.

FML

PokerStars Game #47676872305: Tournament #297947708, $11+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XVII (2000/4000) - 2010/08/04 1:23:29 WET [2010/08/03 20:23:29 ET]
Table '297947708 19' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: NoOl3Ru (45586 in chips)
Seat 4: Gruaiggorm (13228 in chips)
Seat 5: Ricardo_Rico (11497 in chips)
Seat 6: ChKo (49914 in chips)
Seat 8: superkuglen (99359 in chips)
Seat 9: epitomised (50416 in chips)
NoOl3Ru: posts the ante 400
Gruaiggorm: posts the ante 400
Ricardo_Rico: posts the ante 400
ChKo: posts the ante 400
superkuglen: posts the ante 400
epitomised: posts the ante 400
Ricardo_Rico: posts small blind 2000
ChKo: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to epitomised [ ]
superkuglen: raises 94959 to 98959 and is all-in
epitomised: calls 50016 and is all-in
NoOl3Ru: folds
Gruaiggorm: calls 12828 and is all-in
Ricardo_Rico: folds
ChKo: folds
Uncalled bet (48943) returned to superkuglen
*** FLOP *** [ ]
*** TURN *** [ ] []
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
*** SHOW DOWN ***
superkuglen: shows [ ] (a straight, Deuce to Six)
epitomised: shows [ As] (a pair of Deuces)
superkuglen collected 74376 from side pot
Gruaiggorm: shows [ ] (a pair of Deuces)
superkuglen collected 46884 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 121260 Main pot 46884. Side pot 74376. | Rake 0
Board [ ]
Seat 2: NoOl3Ru folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: Gruaiggorm (button) showed [ ] and lost with a pair of Deuces
Seat 5: Ricardo_Rico (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: ChKo (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: superkuglen showed [ ] and won (121260) with a straight, Deuce to Six
Seat 9: epitomised showed [ ] and lost with a pair of Deuces


PokerStars Game #47678473856: Tournament #297950620, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXII (5000/10000) - 2010/08/04 2:09:13 WET [2010/08/03 21:09:13 ET]
Table '297950620 18' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 6: epitomised (227507 in chips)
Seat 8: best56489 (53936 in chips)
Seat 9: elfky (555057 in chips)
epitomised: posts the ante 1000
best56489: posts the ante 1000
elfky: posts the ante 1000
epitomised: posts small blind 5000
best56489: posts big blind 10000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to epitomised [ ]
elfky: raises 544057 to 554057 and is all-in
epitomised: calls 221507 and is all-in
best56489: folds
Uncalled bet (327550) returned to elfky
*** FLOP *** [ ]
*** TURN *** [ ] []
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
*** SHOW DOWN ***
epitomised: shows [ ] (a pair of Jacks)
elfky: shows [ ] (two pair, Queens and Sixes)
elfky collected 466014 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 466014 | Rake 0
Board [ ]
Seat 6: epitomised (small blind) showed [ ] and lost with a pair of Jacks
Seat 8: best56489 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 9: elfky (button) showed [ ] and won (466014) with two pair, Queens and Sixes

[Cf]

£1

[MC]

£1

Bit unfair, you realise how many of these I play a day? Legitimate post, although everyone agrees call these hands have to be towards the bottom of our calling range if not the very bottom...

[Cf]

£1

Bit unfair, you realise how many of these I play a day? Legitimate post, although everyone agrees call these hands have to be towards the bottom of our calling range if not the very bottom...

lol soz, was prob a bit harsh

[MC]

£1

Bit unfair, you realise how many of these I play a day? Legitimate post, although everyone agrees call these hands have to be towards the bottom of our calling range if not the very bottom...

lol soz, was prob a bit harsh

Actually. thinking about it, I did post the hand histories and said FML so it's probs fair enough!