AQ of red

[MC]

Villain has been chip leader throughout final table. No real read except I think he's probably competent and neither a nit nor a maniac.

Sucky ICM spot, but can we really fold AQs 4 handed?..

$12 180 man final table btw

PokerStars Game #48704570174: Tournament #304985786, $11+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XVII (2000/4000) - 2010/08/26 19:33:03 WET [2010/08/26 14:33:03 ET]
Table '304985786 11' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 4: säxky (28912 in chips)
Seat 5: epitomised (94599 in chips)
Seat 6: Michelvanos (108835 in chips)
Seat 8: ArbyG (37654 in chips)
säxky: posts the ante 400
epitomised: posts the ante 400
Michelvanos: posts the ante 400
ArbyG: posts the ante 400
ArbyG: posts small blind 2000
säxky: posts big blind 4000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to epitomised [ ]
epitomised: raises 4888 to 8888
Michelvanos: raises 47112 to 56000
ArbyG: folds
säxky: folds
epitomised:

[titaniumbean]

that's horrible lol. I thought'd he'd tiny 3 bet and was gonna say shove. I'd fold to that size. tis weird.

[kinboshi]

It's a nice bet. He has 99 or better imo.

You can't really call with your hand.  Which is why I like the bet.

[DMorgan]

Definitely a fold. Really sucks to have a competent big stack on your left in this spot 'cos he can do this profitably with any 2. Whether or not he is actually doing it with any 2 doesn't really matter because even if he is we still can't get it in with AQs.

[pleno1]

does he ever do this with qq+?

[Cf]

Fold  . Shove .

[AlexMartin]

fold is exploitable, doubt this guy is exploiting though.

fold.

[outragous76]

im not passing this hand on the final tbale of a 90/180 man, which im assuming this is

get it in, win the race, temporarily turn off your ICM thoughts

[EvilPie]

I stick it in because I think ICM's shite and I've got AQs

[EvilPie]

Definitely a fold. Really sucks to have a competent big stack on your left in this spot 'cos he can do this profitably with any 2. Whether or not he is actually doing it with any 2 doesn't really matter because even if he is we still can't get it in with AQs.

This makes no sense whatsoever.

What makes you think he's competent with this ridiculous raise size?

Why can't we get it in with AQs if he's doing this with any 2?

If we're leaving this decision purely down to ICM surely we have to adjust to his range which would make this a snap shove?

If we've decided that this guy is raising any 2 and still fold this we should give up poker immediately or find a new format of poker that doesn't force us to make stupid decisions.

[DMorgan]

He's competent because he's 3betting us knowing that we can't profitably call with very much at all. The sizing of his raise really doesn't matter at all. Even if he went all in, our stack is 23BBs so that would be a standard resteal stack size.

We can't get this in even if he's shoving any 2 because we have a great chip position and there are 2 guys way shorter than us and the reality is that against very wide ranges hands like AK and AQ just aren't that great. AQs is 62% against a random hand.

You say that we can't just go with ICM and that we have to adjust but have already adjusted. As I said, it doesn't matter what he's shoviing because even if its any 2 this is still a fold.


What would you do here if there were a few more zeros on the end of everyones stack and on the prize money and this is the final table of the million?

[outragous76]

So dan given that a competent players knows he can do this should we even be opening as it is so exploitable?

Also, not sure your Sunday million comment applies, 180 mans play v differently,

[DaveShoelace]

You are still in a fantastic chip position if you fold and there are only a few hands you really dominate, also If I recall the pay jump between 4th and 3rd is quite big in these games, so I would fold here and quite quickly.

[DMorgan]

So dan given that a competent players knows he can do this should we even be opening as it is so exploitable?

Also, not sure your Sunday million comment applies, 180 mans play v differently,

I would still be opening until I am pretty sure that he's 3betting really wide, but we can't open too wide anyway because we can't raise/fold against the two shorties. I've never actually encountered a situation where I'd open fold the AQs here but if he really is 3bet jamming any 2 then it should theoretically be an open fold.

Having look at the %age payouts in the million and these 180s the disparity is bigger than I thought. The idea though was to point out that once you make the money significant and drop the attitude that its 'just a 180man' or its 'only x amount of money' then people start folding a lot more. The most +EV play is the most +EV play whether its for a few cents or thousands.

@Matt: ICM gives us a pretty reliable way of calculating $EV of all in jams and calls. If something is -$EV then you're sacrificing equity. Why would you do that? Bubble play and ICM in SNGs is everything because this stage of the game is where the largest amounts of equity are won or lost. You clearly aren't interested in ICM or SNGs so why bother coming into threads where people are trying to learn about maximising their ROIs in these tournaments saying 'lol AQs 4 handed we're obviously all in' when the numbers show that its clearly a bad play.