APAT ME Late in Day 1

[ForthThistle]

i say 4-5 and you should fold. Better spots later.

[BAM]

Call its APAT he prolly has Q2o or something similar

[SirPerceval]

i say 4-5 and you should fold. Better spots later.

Can you please explain why you think he would have that?

[AlexMartin]

donking flop is fine and deffo not folding.

what do you think he has?

Well its not that we can be certain what he has, its just a combination of factors that lead to u being pretty unable to fold this hand here.

Pot odds, we are being asked to call 38k to win 51k. His actions, does not make a great deal of sense, very odd to just set us in with us to act first. Smacks of semibluff using "max" fold equity, this guy almost certainly imagines that this bet will get more folds. Other possibilities include pure oddball stuff, like seeing him showup with AK/1010/some random pp would not be suprising. Real hands he reps are prolly AA and KK, given these hands are played oddly more often than others.

Stove the 3 possibilities together and you endup with a pretty clear call-  mainly because we have decent equity against the overpairs (13 outs) and once you include a few bits of garbage you see that this is pretty clear cut.

Without including any weirdo AK's we are still huge.....


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,276  games     0.005 secs   255,200  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    66.614%     65.05%    01.57%               830           20.00   { Jc6h }
Hand 1:    33.386%     31.82%    01.57%               406           20.00   { KK+, TT-99, 76s, 65s }


---

[pokerfan]

i say 4-5 and you should fold. Better spots later.

Can you please explain why you think he would have that?

Because he read the updates 

[SirPerceval]

donking flop is fine and deffo not folding.

what do you think he has?

Well its not that we can be certain what he has, its just a combination of factors that lead to u being pretty unable to fold this hand here.

Pot odds, we are being asked to call 38k to win 51k. His actions, does not make a great deal of sense, very odd to just set us in with us to act first. Smacks of semibluff using "max" fold equity, this guy almost certainly imagines that this bet will get more folds. Other possibilities include pure oddball stuff, like seeing him showup with AK/1010/some random pp would not be suprising. Real hands he reps are prolly AA and KK, given these hands are played oddly more often than others.

Stove the 3 possibilities together and you endup with a pretty clear call-  mainly because we have decent equity against the overpairs (13 outs) and once you include a few bits of garbage you see that this is pretty clear cut.

Without including any weirdo AK's we are still huge.....


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,276  games     0.005 secs   255,200  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    66.614%     65.05%    01.57%               830           20.00   { Jc6h }
Hand 1:    33.386%     31.82%    01.57%               406           20.00   { KK+, TT-99, 76s, 65s }


---

thanks for this.

I did call BTW

[Rod]

Without knowing how the villian plays it is very hard to say. His play in this hand is unusual.

Has the button been limping into a lot of pots at this stage? Given that you can raise any two from that spot it could be AA or KK hoping for a raise from the blinds, although this would not be a good play. Any other hands shold raise as well as a god chance to take it down. The flop is a good one for your hand, betting on the semi bluff is fine. If he has an overpair then you will probably find out about it at this stage. As has already been mentioned on here you can bet less here 2500 probably does the job, if he has if he will fold. As it is he calls your overbet. I don't like this but it is strange as a two pair/set/overpar should raise on that board, but a draw does not have the odds to call.\your 6 makes the raw less likely.

The turn makes you top pair no kicker and he shoves. OK, at this point go with your read, you say he does not look confident so if you feel your reads are good enough thn you should call. I would fold here though. It is rare that this is a bluff at this level. The hand does not make much sense but you have plenty of chips and there are enough easy chips to be picked up  this stage. With the limited amount of infomation here it is a fold for me. If I call here it is based on my read on the player not the betting pattern's and action on the hand. I would probably fold this.

[AlexMartin]

Without knowing how the villian plays it is very hard to say. His play in this hand is unusual.

Has the button been limping into a lot of pots at this stage? Given that you can raise any two from that spot it could be AA or KK hoping for a raise from the blinds, although this would not be a good play. Any other hands shold raise as well as a god chance to take it down. The flop is a good one for your hand, betting on the semi bluff is fine. If he has an overpair then you will probably find out about it at this stage. As has already been mentioned on here you can bet less here 2500 probably does the job, if he has if he will fold. As it is he calls your overbet. I don't like this but it is strange as a two pair/set/overpar should raise on that board, but a draw does not have the odds to call.\your 6 makes the raw less likely.

The turn makes you top pair no kicker and he shoves. OK, at this point go with your read, you say he does not look confident so if you feel your reads are good enough thn you should call. I would fold here though. It is rare that this is a bluff at this level. The hand does not make much sense but you have plenty of chips and there are enough easy chips to be picked up  this stage. With the limited amount of infomation here it is a fold for me. If I call here it is based on my read on the player not the betting pattern's and action on the hand. I would probably fold this.

unfortunately with a 25bb stack your chances of winning the comp are not fantastic, with a 70bb stack you have a real solid chance to contend for top spot, this is a spot that (once we get into), we should probably never pass without much more info.

[George2Loose]

Without knowing how the villian plays it is very hard to say. His play in this hand is unusual.

Has the button been limping into a lot of pots at this stage? Given that you can raise any two from that spot it could be AA or KK hoping for a raise from the blinds, although this would not be a good play. Any other hands shold raise as well as a god chance to take it down. The flop is a good one for your hand, betting on the semi bluff is fine. If he has an overpair then you will probably find out about it at this stage. As has already been mentioned on here you can bet less here 2500 probably does the job, if he has if he will fold. As it is he calls your overbet. I don't like this but it is strange as a two pair/set/overpar should raise on that board, but a draw does not have the odds to call.\your 6 makes the raw less likely.

The turn makes you top pair no kicker and he shoves. OK, at this point go with your read, you say he does not look confident so if you feel your reads are good enough thn you should call. I would fold here though. It is rare that this is a bluff at this level. The hand does not make much sense but you have plenty of chips and there are enough easy chips to be picked up  this stage. With the limited amount of infomation here it is a fold for me. If I call here it is based on my read on the player not the betting pattern's and action on the hand. I would probably fold this.

unfortunately with a 25bb stack your chances of winning the comp are not fantastic, with a 70bb stack you have a real solid chance to contend for top spot, this is a spot that (once we get into), we should probably never pass without much more info.

+1 tho it is a nit fest so you're probably beat by like 68 suited or something

[mondatoo]

Are we donk leading to get it in ?

Don't see how this is our best line ?

[mondatoo]

donking flop is fine and deffo not folding.

what do you think he has?

Well its not that we can be certain what he has, its just a combination of factors that lead to u being pretty unable to fold this hand here.

Pot odds, we are being asked to call 38k to win 51k. His actions, does not make a great deal of sense, very odd to just set us in with us to act first. Smacks of semibluff using "max" fold equity, this guy almost certainly imagines that this bet will get more folds. Other possibilities include pure oddball stuff, like seeing him showup with AK/1010/some random pp would not be suprising. Real hands he reps are prolly AA and KK, given these hands are played oddly more often than others.

Stove the 3 possibilities together and you endup with a pretty clear call-  mainly because we have decent equity against the overpairs (13 outs) and once you include a few bits of garbage you see that this is pretty clear cut.

Without including any weirdo AK's we are still huge.....


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,276  games     0.005 secs   255,200  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    66.614%     65.05%    01.57%               830           20.00   { Jc6h }
Hand 1:    33.386%     31.82%    01.57%               406           20.00   { KK+, TT-99, 76s, 65s }


---

I think your a bit off here imo Alex,for a starters there's pretty much no way he's using this as a spot to semibluff for max fold equity,i'd say there's a lot more chance he'd give you a confused expression if you mentioned those words to him.I also think your ranges are to wide for a random live donk who we think is bad and I also think we should include sets in his range as he's worried the straight might get there.I just don't see him over jamming here with much that we beat.

[Rod]

donking flop is fine and deffo not folding.

what do you think he has?

Well its not that we can be certain what he has, its just a combination of factors that lead to u being pretty unable to fold this hand here.

Pot odds, we are being asked to call 38k to win 51k. His actions, does not make a great deal of sense, very odd to just set us in with us to act first. Smacks of semibluff using "max" fold equity, this guy almost certainly imagines that this bet will get more folds. Other possibilities include pure oddball stuff, like seeing him showup with AK/1010/some random pp would not be suprising. Real hands he reps are prolly AA and KK, given these hands are played oddly more often than others.

Stove the 3 possibilities together and you endup with a pretty clear call-  mainly because we have decent equity against the overpairs (13 outs) and once you include a few bits of garbage you see that this is pretty clear cut.

Without including any weirdo AK's we are still huge.....


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,276  games     0.005 secs   255,200  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    66.614%     65.05%    01.57%               830           20.00   { Jc6h }
Hand 1:    33.386%     31.82%    01.57%               406           20.00   { KK+, TT-99, 76s, 65s }


---

I think your a bit off here imo Alex,for a starters there's pretty much no way he's using this as a spot to semibluff for max fold equity,i'd say there's a lot more chance he'd give you a confused expression if you mentioned those words to him.I also think your ranges are to wide for a random live donk who we think is bad and I also think we should include sets in his range as he's worried the straight might get there.I just don't see him over jamming here with much that we beat. 65 or 76.

This was my original thinking but Alex has pointed out it is the difference between having 70BB and 25BB. It is a nit fest but there are too many chips in the pot and we can make a better two pair as well as our straight. It is not impossible we could be good already either.

As Monda says I think sets are in his range, not too sure about 99 and TT though. I don't know what his preflop range is except for the call is bad. On the flop he had called an overbet though. There is no flush draw and we have the 6 so there are only two left. Draws are not that likely for me but we have to consider he may have something like 76s or 65s.

I would put his range as something like, AA, KK, 44, 55, 77, 76s, 65s. Maybe we should include A6 as well (incase he really is just spewing off chips).

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    51.555%     47.49%    04.07%               794           68.00   { Jc6h }
Hand 1:    48.445%     44.38%    04.07%               742           68.00   { KK+, 77, 55-44, A6s, 76s, 65s, A6o }

This still looks like a call is +EV. It just feels so unlikey he actually shows up with something we beat here.

Is this really a call? I am surprised but it looks like it is.

EDIT - sorry I forgot that 45 has to be in his range as well, however this still shows it as being pretty much a coin flip. You have to really tighten his range up to justify a fold from an EV point of view. However I don't understand ICM and the equity of your tournament life type considerations and if they should apply here. So I will believe Alex and assume it should be a call. Although I have to say the hand is so confusing.

[SirPerceval]

Glad I'm not the only one confused by it.

Thanks for all the input so far guys

[AlexMartin]

donking flop is fine and deffo not folding.

what do you think he has?

Well its not that we can be certain what he has, its just a combination of factors that lead to u being pretty unable to fold this hand here.

Pot odds, we are being asked to call 38k to win 51k. His actions, does not make a great deal of sense, very odd to just set us in with us to act first. Smacks of semibluff using "max" fold equity, this guy almost certainly imagines that this bet will get more folds. Other possibilities include pure oddball stuff, like seeing him showup with AK/1010/some random pp would not be suprising. Real hands he reps are prolly AA and KK, given these hands are played oddly more often than others.

Stove the 3 possibilities together and you endup with a pretty clear call-  mainly because we have decent equity against the overpairs (13 outs) and once you include a few bits of garbage you see that this is pretty clear cut.

Without including any weirdo AK's we are still huge.....


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,276  games     0.005 secs   255,200  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    66.614%     65.05%    01.57%               830           20.00   { Jc6h }
Hand 1:    33.386%     31.82%    01.57%               406           20.00   { KK+, TT-99, 76s, 65s }


---

I think your a bit off here imo Alex,for a starters there's pretty much no way he's using this as a spot to semibluff for max fold equity,i'd say there's a lot more chance he'd give you a confused expression if you mentioned those words to him.I also think your ranges are to wide for a random live donk who we think is bad and I also think we should include sets in his range as he's worried the straight might get there.I just don't see him over jamming here with much that we beat.

yer, im prolly way off re range tbh, just thought that basically we cant fold, think we need like 35% to breakeven, dont know exactly how many bluff/oddball combos that is, but it aint that many.

[mondatoo]

donking flop is fine and deffo not folding.

what do you think he has?

Well its not that we can be certain what he has, its just a combination of factors that lead to u being pretty unable to fold this hand here.

Pot odds, we are being asked to call 38k to win 51k. His actions, does not make a great deal of sense, very odd to just set us in with us to act first. Smacks of semibluff using "max" fold equity, this guy almost certainly imagines that this bet will get more folds. Other possibilities include pure oddball stuff, like seeing him showup with AK/1010/some random pp would not be suprising. Real hands he reps are prolly AA and KK, given these hands are played oddly more often than others.

Stove the 3 possibilities together and you endup with a pretty clear call-  mainly because we have decent equity against the overpairs (13 outs) and once you include a few bits of garbage you see that this is pretty clear cut.

Without including any weirdo AK's we are still huge.....


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,276  games     0.005 secs   255,200  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    66.614%     65.05%    01.57%               830           20.00   { Jc6h }
Hand 1:    33.386%     31.82%    01.57%               406           20.00   { KK+, TT-99, 76s, 65s }


---

I think your a bit off here imo Alex,for a starters there's pretty much no way he's using this as a spot to semibluff for max fold equity,i'd say there's a lot more chance he'd give you a confused expression if you mentioned those words to him.I also think your ranges are to wide for a random live donk who we think is bad and I also think we should include sets in his range as he's worried the straight might get there.I just don't see him over jamming here with much that we beat.

yer, im prolly way off re range tbh, just thought that basically we cant fold, think we need like 35% to breakeven, dont know exactly how many bluff/oddball combos that is, but it aint that many.

I gave him a really nitty range and we still had 30-35% equity,meh I'll stfu and stick to 45mans.