Puke satellite bubble spot

[EvilPie]

Yeah I realised this was a fold after the event but thought I'd check it out to be sure.

At the time I was in a rush with a few comps on and without time to check stacks carefully I just hit the call button and closed my eyes.

Having looked on HEM at the full HH and stacks it's a clear fold but at the time I just saw a decent hand which was 100% locking up the seat.

Luckily I held against A5 despite a huge draw by the turn so got away with this mistake.

I think with us all being in a row with the blinds on their way round I just didn't quite calculate right. If the BB was a couple of seats along then there's only one all in before me and I just didn't have time to work it out properly.

As a point of interest there was no strategy being played by any of the big stacks. I think the 5x raise with 3 stacks <1bb shows this.

Given the time to think about it I like DMorgan's post about folding AA here. What does everyone else think to that?

[EvilPie]

I do a fold.Do you not normally take the rebuy at the start ?

Not in these sats no.

There's plenty of chances to double up a single stack anyway and it's a double add on as well.

I find it's easy enough to get a 30bb stack after the rebuy period off €32 which gives me maximum value for getting a seat.

This wouldn't be my strat in many sats but in this particular one I just like to let everyone else pay for the seats.

[SuuPRlim]

This is a fold and its not close at all

There are 2 guys going to be all in before you and the big stacks are going to limp to try and knock them out. Babybaby3 is going to really nit it up because the other shorty is all in one hand before he is, so he'll have <600 chips left and even if rock0786 survives what will be at least a 3 way all in vs the Chili and Ardian747 in the blinds, easee will probably limp UTG and JakeWilk with his 120k stack will almost certainly limp the button.

Even if he does survive the 4 or 5 way all in, babybaby3 is all in the next hand with Adrian and easee in the blinds, jake and Chilil probably limp too

Say everone has a random hand and is 20% to win their all in, if you fold here you are 0.2*0.2 = 4% to be forced all in if you fold here.

This doesn't take into account the fact that one of the shorties might pick up a hand but obv they have zero fold equity anyway

This brings up to the conclusion that we should be folding AA here which I never knew so thanks for posting this

Wow. Sick work.