@Lee. Maths checked. Where've I gone wrong?
@Mondeoman, don't mind downbeat, vague however...
1. Who are all these people making money from sports betting?
2. There's a huge survivor bias in winning sports betters. Imagine 100 people start of with different systems for beating the bookies. After a year 10 have made money 90 have lost. Firstly the 10 who have won you don't know there system is actually good they might have just run above ev. Secondly you never hear about the 90 losers. Only the 10 winners will be crowing about the money they make. Millionaires always say they made money by taking risks, so people think great ill take risks. What nobody mentions is probably a lot of penniless/homeless people were also risk takers - but for some reason they never get round to publishing their book about why risk taking is bad.
3. Obv you know you have to beat the bookies edge as well, its not good enough to find a small edge it has to be a big enough edge to negate the bookies share.
4. Think you underestimate the systems bookies have in place to determine the prices they rarely get it wrong. I had a friend who was very mathematical, did a disertation on greyhound racing odds, worked for gala and other gambling companies. Designed and runs a website that compiles football stats for the last 10 years and enables you to build your own models for beating the bookies. Could he ever build a model that beat bookies? short answer no.
5. If you were any good the bookies will just limit your bets.
6. All these inside tips are often bollocks. I grew up with people claiming they got whispers of stable boys/inside info off owners etc etc for the most part it was just rumours.
7. Not saying it isn't possible but you need to be way more sophisticated than you are thinking and its way harder than you think.
Do you ever see a poor bookie?
on a scale of 0-10 id give this idea 1/10
For someone who makes their living from gambling this post has a lot of misinformation and contradictions.
Will deal with each of your points in turn:
1. There are a LOT of people making a living betting sports. I have done it for long periods of my life and alternate between that and working for bookmakers (it is two sides to the same coin effectively). The Camel on here makes a living from it. Amongst those that have made literally millions from sportsbetting names familiar to poker players include Tony Bloom, Billy Baxter, Billy Walters, Doyle Brunson, Chip Reese and Haralabos Voulgaris.
2. There is survivorship bias for sure but the same can be said about almost any activity. Not sure why sportsbetting would be singled out and I would suggest that the evidence is that there are more significant sportsbetting winners than the survivor stats would suggest.
3. Not really sure what your point is here. You price something and if you have an overlay you bet it. The bookies margin doesn't come into it because that is already taken into consideration when you price an event.
4. I have spent many years compiling odds and running trading for bookmakers. You overestimate their skills and, more importantly, the time they have to pricing the myriad of markets they offer. As a punter you have the option to not play if you think the price is right. That is the biggest benefit of sportsbetting There are no blinds as such.
5. This is a generally good point but it also contradicts your arguments about not being able to win slightly. Also as a new punter you will get a run at it to win a couple of grand with most firms. After that there are exchanges, mates who will open accounts for you and firms in Asia and the Caribbean that dont limit winners. There are ways and means and getting on is just a part of the skillset you have to develop. Think of it a bit like the skills you have to develop to keep the recs happy at the poker table.
6. Largely agreed on 'inside tips'. I would generally say I probably only have a handful of tip based on this kind of info a year from 3-4k bets I have a year.
7. This is a very good point and it is a lot of hard work. For sure there are bets that you could follow on T4T but it isn't anything like enough to make a significant profit and if you wanted to do well you would have to develop your own ideas and strategies. As Tighty said most of us that do well at the game don't offer a lot of tips on the thread because a) it is too time consuming, b) it doesn't serve us well to reveal everything we do and c) it could spoil the market.
You never see a poor bookie? Survivorship bias???
Alex - the best start you could make would be to read the whole of the Tips for Tikay thread and then ask questions. You have a lot of goodwill here and most of us are fairly friendly. We are even nice to Aaron over there!!!!
re 1) All the people you mentioned who are winning obviously have good contacts/information sources/experience. I'd say for someone starting off its very difficult. I'd still argue that the absolute and relative numbers of people who can make £ from sports betting is small.
2) Exactly its not specific to sports betting but that doesn't mean the point isn't valid. Imagine i was going to take up poker based purely on the fact that i'd seen Moneymaker, Moorman and Trickett making loads of money. Firstly i don't get to see all the people who went broke chasing the dream. Secondly some of these players may be winning due to luck and others may be winning due to being awesome poker players.
3) My point is if the bookie makes a small error in their calculations you still can't make money on the bet - it has to be a significant error on their part.
4) This is based on my personal experience of a number of people who tried to do it and they all failed (maybe they were just rubbish, i don't know but they were all pretty switched on people)
Re bookie survivor Bias fair enough got me on that one!
Never said it wasn't possible, if anything i was complimenting those who can do it because its a lot harder than most people think. Also if you can be profitable on the scale Alex is talking his time would be far better spent just playing poker.
Author