AK oop

[MC]

Step-by-stepper.

What should we do on the flop? Does it alter if we think villain is a winning player/losing player?


PokerStars Game #55894206596: Tournament #402010065, $100+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (20/40) - 2011/01/14 6:11:04 WET [2011/01/14 1:11:04 ET]
Table '402010065 21' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: showtime2600 (2630 in chips)
Seat 2: Ninemil (3550 in chips)
Seat 3: ZARDOZ 11 (2482 in chips)
Seat 4: 1puttallday (5467 in chips)
Seat 5: Mateywin (2920 in chips)
Seat 6: ron5129 (570 in chips)
Seat 7: Mrn42 (3000 in chips)
Seat 8: epitomised (3000 in chips)
Seat 9: unger666 (3000 in chips)
1puttallday: posts small blind 20
Mateywin: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to epitomised [ ]
ron5129: folds
Mrn42: folds
epitomised: raises 80 to 120
unger666: folds
showtime2600: folds
Ninemil: calls 120
ZARDOZ 11: folds
1puttallday: folds
Mateywin: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
epitomised: bets 140
Ninemil: raises 260 to 400

[boldie]

On the flop i would definitely be calling villians re-raise.
I would say that at the moment we are about 50/50 in terms of equity against villians likely range.
I beleive that if villian is a losing player we are actually in worse shape as a flopped set would be a slightly higher percentage of villian's range.
Assuming that the turn card is relatively safe, i would be planning on betting about 600 on the turn and folding to a shove / re-raise. A great deal does depend on the turn card though.
 I definitely wouldn't be re-raising on the flop as i would prefer to see the turn card before committing any more chips.
Thanks for posting this BTW. It's certainly a very tricky spot (for me anyway).

What turn card would satisfy you? I don't like the bet/fold option myself to be honest. In fact, I am dead against calling a re-raise on the flop and then bet/folding the turn.

It's a tricky spot as he'll probably show up with AQ or a set of nines here (only saying that because you asked the question). I call and check it over to him with the intention of calling his bet. I do this to keep A-10/A-J in and I reckon we might scare them off with a re-raise. But I am not folding here and definitely not bet folding a turn.

Whether he is a winning or losing player makes a difference, I guess, because a winning player would give up if you check-cal his turn bet (and he's behind to your AK) where as a losing player might do his stack here with AJ.

[boldie]

My thinking was, say the turn came  two hearts. We bet 600, just over half the pot. We are still a big favourite against any drawing hands such as  and we are also still a big favourite against any Ace x hands including ones that have picked up the back door flush draw. I beleive that villian would probably call with these hands, giving us value and probably only re-raise / shove with sets / 2 pairs.
 If we check the turn, villian can take the free card if he's drawing, or he can bet, maybe potsize, or even shove, with or without a hand, thereby putting us in a tougher spot than if we'd bet the turn. It's certainly not an easy situation, which is why i'm interested to hear people's thoughts on it. Hopefully it will help me to deal with these situations better when i find myself in them

Villain could well have 10-J, in which case he'd also get it in on the flop.

I am just not keen on calling a raise on the flop and then leading out on the turn with any hand really. If I call a raise on the flop I would never lead out on the turn myself. (which admittedly might be the wrong thing to do, I just don't see why it would be a good idea)

[silverslick]

I think you call the flop bet. Looking to check on the turn and call bets. If he checks the turn value bet him on the river.

[pleno1]

depending on player...

fold>call>>>>>>>>>>Raise

[MC]

I really wanted to just fold. Feels like we're not often good in this spot. On the other hand it seemed uber-weak to just bet/fold TPTK.

I sharkscoped him and he was only up ~$2k, which led me to call. Upon reaching the turn I then realised I had Sharkscope SNG filter on, and it turns out the dude is a good winning player in MTTs FML.

PokerStars Game #55894206596: Tournament #402010065, $100+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level III (20/40) - 2011/01/14 6:11:04 WET [2011/01/14 1:11:04 ET]
Table '402010065 21' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: showtime2600 (2630 in chips)
Seat 2: Ninemil (3550 in chips)
Seat 3: ZARDOZ 11 (2482 in chips)
Seat 4: 1puttallday (5467 in chips)
Seat 5: Mateywin (2920 in chips)
Seat 6: ron5129 (570 in chips)
Seat 7: Mrn42 (3000 in chips)
Seat 8: epitomised (3000 in chips)
Seat 9: unger666 (3000 in chips)
1puttallday: posts small blind 20
Mateywin: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to epitomised [ ]
ron5129: folds
Mrn42: folds
epitomised: raises 80 to 120
unger666: folds
showtime2600: folds
Ninemil: calls 120
ZARDOZ 11: folds
1puttallday: folds
Mateywin: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
epitomised: bets 140
Ninemil: raises 260 to 400
epitomised: calls 260
*** TURN *** [ ] []
epitomised: checks
Ninemil: bets 638
epitomised:

[Rupert]

I really wanted to just fold. Feels like we're not often good in this spot. On the other hand it seemed uber-weak to just bet/fold TPTK.

Agree it does so don't hate calling once, that said I doubt we are getting to showdown much and I doubt villain is bluffing/semi-bluffing very often/not firing multiple barrels if he is/value raising worse.  Callings always going to be fine because you can cite balance

[Skippy]

What happens next, MC?

[EvilPie]

I really wanted to just fold. Feels like we're not often good in this spot. On the other hand it seemed uber-weak to just bet/fold TPTK.

Are we really considering giving up that easily?

If that's the case we might as well never put another chip in a pot against this opponent unless we have the nuts.

You think he's raising with a set / 2 pair hoping we have AK and are going to stack off?

Surely he's going to give us a bit more rope if he's got a monster and dwell call.

I assume this is one of your turbo comps that you've been playing? I'm more than happy to stack off here if that's the case.

Call flop raise. Call turn. Reassess river now that the nasty Q has paired.

To be fair if we think we're behind on the flop that Q has made it slightly more likely that we were wrong.

I think I even sigh call a shove on the river.

I just can't fold tptk in a turbo.

[boldie]

What flop were you hoping to hit with AK? what have you put villain on? what makes you think he puts you on AK?

surely the call on the flop means that you have to love the Q on the turn? It changes nothing for you. (unless you think he has KQ or something like that). would he play a full house this fast?

Call the turn and give him more rope to hang himself IMO.

[Spraggs]

One of them Tricky spots...

-I am calling his flop raise, and re-evaluating the turn most of the time.

-Now seeing the Q turn, it makes the chance of him having a Q less likely. Obv u gta check to him (as u did) and now i will be looking for other info about him, I will OPR him, see if he's a winning or losing player, and i will check the stats on the HUD to see any tendencies.

-If he is a losing player/not very capable player i will more than likely chk call turn and river (depending on any horibble rivers or bet sizing).
-If he is a winning player, we are ahead of TJ only, and a lot wouldn't reraise that on the flop. So i fold.

Cliffs: Player/read dependant, chk call both streets if donk, fold turn if winning player, and barrells again.

[AlexMartin]

depending on player...

fold>call>>>>>>>>>>Raise

this

[redarmi]

It does look weak but how many hands do you think you are beating.  I think it matters whether he is a winning player in so far as that if he is a losing player/fish then he may have called you with J9 or (more likely) A9 so his range on the flop that beats you is wider and also less likely to have J10.  I think I probably call once against a trickier/better player and fold on turn.  Against a fish I think I just fold and live with the occasions where he stacks off with AJ or AT

[skolsuper]

I fold the flop against anyone but a total maniac.