New Years Eve Presents

Ok so I'm going to do a runner but I know that I will not be able to hide.

At least those of you with elephant like memories will only be justified in breaking one of my legs and not both but I have no excuses for costing blind followers of my soccer picks just under a 1pt loss today.

As for how I do my odds lines I use a variety of statistical mehtods based essentially on league tables and a slant towards the more recent matches eg the last game result was more significant than the 2nd to last than the third to last etc etc using all a teams form to date and heavier emphasis on the last 6/8 matches (3 homes and 3 aways, 4 homes and 4 aways) and I also adjust for the strength of opposition that each side has played in those recent 6/8 matches.

If I have any excuse at all it is that this is a very difficult time of year at which to bet as smaller squad teams suffer greatly compared to the larger ones who are better equipped with more higher calibre players in their squads to cope with 4 matches in 8/10 days.

Also in the Premiership these days you also get weird distortions for team selections for those teams near the bottom. eg a relegation zone team may pick its second eleven to play away to Chelsea today knowing that in 3 days or next week they will be home to the bottom side so may want to save their players for that game and in effect give up any chance of any result away to a top of the table side away. (you get the idea).

Anyway it's not as complex as it all sounds because I have it all computerised and the bottom line is that in todays intenet age you should never really lose as a pun ter.

If you bet on Asian Hcaps you are effectively betting evens either side on a coin toss or at worst with global competition 2.00 one side and 1.90 the other or more usually 1.95 or more so you should break even or make a very small loss just betting blindly at random. With so little edge against you it then becomes much easier to give yourself a chance of winning at betting soccer.

Makes me wonder why the bookies keep whining about how they can't make money with their 12% juice 3 way lines.