£2/£5 Live: Flop Spot

[outragous76]

Haven't really gone into the Maths but we have 35% against a set and 29% against a made flush. Given stack sizes we have far too much equity to fold and are ahead against Adx (I'd discount this some as he only CIB's where i think we can assume he makes a bigger raise to price himself in or just peels). Its also pretty hard to flop the nuts. Don't have time to stove it but if sum1 ran the munbers against a reasonable range it won't even be that close.

i just think his click-it-back range is super tight.

yeah but his click back range isnt changing our outs

he has  a set or a bum flush

[GreekStein]

Hopkin wins

[George2Loose]

Hopkin wins

Deffo fold if popkin re raises you. He always has it

[cambridgealex]

Haven't really gone into the Maths but we have 35% against a set and 29% against a made flush. Given stack sizes we have far too much equity to fold and are ahead against Adx (I'd discount this some as he only CIB's where i think we can assume he makes a bigger raise to price himself in or just peels). Its also pretty hard to flop the nuts. Don't have time to stove it but if sum1 ran the munbers against a reasonable range it won't even be that close.

i just think his click-it-back range is super tight.

yeah but his click back range isnt changing our outs

he has  a set or a bum flush

are we priced in to get it in 35% / 29% / 0%? It's a very realistic possibility that he has peeled pre with a suited ace and flopped the dizzles.

[outragous76]

Haven't really gone into the Maths but we have 35% against a set and 29% against a made flush. Given stack sizes we have far too much equity to fold and are ahead against Adx (I'd discount this some as he only CIB's where i think we can assume he makes a bigger raise to price himself in or just peels). Its also pretty hard to flop the nuts. Don't have time to stove it but if sum1 ran the munbers against a reasonable range it won't even be that close.

i just think his click-it-back range is super tight.

yeah but his click back range isnt changing our outs

he has  a set or a bum flush

are we priced in to get it in 35% / 29% / 0%? It's a very realistic possibility that he has peeled pre with a suited ace and flopped the dizzles.

surely thats the one hand he doesnt raise

[SuuPRlim]

If i was mitch id have moved em in and kinda sighed whilst dong it. Don't see anything esle to do really

If it was me playing, id have had a much much easier decision

[GreekStein]

Relevant info for the thread:

Mitch has an extremely aggressive playing style.

So aggressive that he's under watch from scotland yard constantly as a potential terror suspect.

[SuuPRlim]

Relevant info for the thread:

Mitch has an extremely aggressive playing style.

So aggressive that he's under watch from scotland yard constantly as a potential terror suspect.

lols, this fish isn't espcially observant tho

[Mitch]

Ok, cheers 4 replys.

Jammed in the end but wasn't too happy about it.

Looking back, I'm just not in good shape vs anything but a pair and straight draw type of hand which he has such a tiny percent of the time.

He snaps a7dd. GG.

Hand would have been much easier to play with more info on player a bit later in the session.

[pleno1]

thinks its one where you just got to sigh fold the flop mate.

[strak33]

At least this hand doesnt make you seem like some mythical creature that goes around DTD getting stacks in and never losing like the rest of them in PHA involving you.

[Whollyflush]

okay i just stoved a super duper tight range of 44-22,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad5d,JdTd,Td9d,9d8d,8d7d,7d6d,AdTc,AdTh,AdTs,Ad9h,Ad9s and we have 29%.

Lets also make the assumption we have no fold equity. (unlikely since OP is apparently a monkey)

The pot is £530, assuming absolutely no FE lets say he jams with the same range he makes this raise with so we can break down the maths.

530+690 (the £240 raise and 450- £110 mitch c/bet behind his total stack on the flop) £1220/590= 2.08/1 for a profitable call

We need around 2.54/1 with 29% equty in order for us to profitably call. Im surprised its a fold but the range is far too tight vs a likely recreational player and lack of FE so it will be alot closer. However on the flop the pot is £530 and its £130 to call the flop raise giving us better than 4/1, so an arguement could be made for peeling the raise and using are hand as a bluff catcher.

In a vacuum i think c/f the flop is massively results orientated, although i think the flop bet sizing isn't great. we could go £80, £160, then from an effective £750 stack the pot will be £660 setting up a nice £450 effective shove if we need to run a triple barrel with maximum FE (or we get there and jam for value).

Did maths on train, probably not most conventional method so if sum1 could double check it that would be great.

[SuuPRlim]

okay i just stoved a super duper tight range of 44-22,AdTd,Ad9d,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d,Ad5d,JdTd,Td9d,9d8d,8d7d,7d6d,AdTc,AdTh,AdTs,Ad9h,Ad9s and we have 29%.

Lets also make the assumption we have no fold equity. (unlikely since OP is apparently a monkey)

The pot is £530, assuming absolutely no FE lets say he jams with the same range he makes this raise with so we can break down the maths.

530+690 (the £240 raise and 450- £110 mitch c/bet behind his total stack on the flop) £1220/590= 2.08/1 for a profitable call

We need around 2.54/1 with 29% equty in order for us to profitably call. Im surprised its a fold but the range is far too tight vs a likely recreational player and lack of FE so it will be alot closer. However on the flop the pot is £530 and its £130 to call the flop raise giving us better than 4/1, so an arguement could be made for peeling the raise and using are hand as a bluff catcher.

In a vacuum i think c/f the flop is massively results orientated, although i think the flop bet sizing isn't great. we could go £80, £160, then from an effective £750 stack the pot will be £660 setting up a nice £450 effective shove if we need to run a triple barrel with maximum FE (or we get there and jam for value).

Did maths on train, probably not most conventional method so if sum1 could double check it that would be great.

 

As it happens I have lots of history with this particular player. When he min raises here he has a flush 100%, he does however love to make laughably bad flop peels and big folds later in hands, so there is lots of value in betting the flop and betting on the bigger side, he would call  here all day long on the flop. I like JP's line bet £80, £200 and jam river for £400 folding to any raise at any point, but once he;s called the flop he will never raise a blank river imo. He might call 2 with A5 and fold river, or just peel along with  or any ace for that matter prolly

[Mitch]

Dont really see how bet sizing is a problem.

We bet just less than 2/3 pot.

Are you gonna bet 1/3 pot here with a made hand such as  ?

We dont know we are going to be heads up with this specific player when we c-bet the flop. The player who folds from BB is deeper than the button so if he is the one that calls, the sizing needs altering again to be able to jam the river.

[redarmi]

Players like this have no concept of why they should just flat call here.  they have the nuts and want to get their money in.  At this point they don't care what you have.  They look at their cards and want to get it in but, if they have a set, they do the same because "you can't have flopped a flush" even if the three to the flush was the turn and you had played it they would make the big fold.  Even given this I don't know if this is a fold or not.  Interesting spot.