Top Pair into a bluff? 200NLHU

[pleno1]

He plays as high at 50/100 and hs lost $123k!  He plays well, but very very aggro. Thoughts on all pls.


Full Tilt Poker Game #28934175941: Table MSN (heads up) - $1/$2 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:31:18 ET - 2011/03/11
Seat 1: pads1161 ($265.50)
Seat 2: TILTYBOY ($250)
TILTYBOY posts the small blind of $1
pads1161 posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pads1161 [ ]
TILTYBOY has 15 seconds left to act
TILTYBOY raises to $6
pads1161 calls $4
*** FLOP *** [ ]
pads1161 checks
TILTYBOY bets $8
pads1161 calls $8
*** TURN *** [ ] []
pads1161 checks
TILTYBOY has 15 seconds left to act
TILTYBOY bets $22
pads1161 has 15 seconds left to act
pads1161 calls $22
*** RIVER *** [ ] []
pads1161 has 15 seconds left to act
pads1161 checks
TILTYBOY bets $54
pads1161 has 15 seconds left to act
pads1161 raises to $229.50, and is all in
TILTYBOY folds
Uncalled bet of $175.50 returned to pads1161
pads1161 mucks
pads1161 wins the pot ($179.50)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $180 | Rake $0.50
Board: [ ]
Seat 1: pads1161 (big blind) collected ($179.50), mucked
Seat 2: TILTYBOY (small blind) folded on the Rive

[pleno1]

What do we do with  aswell?

[SuuPRlim]

What do we do with  aswell?

I think this is really really interesting

[Rupert]

I mean we dont really have much on gameflow or anything but lets say its in a vacuum i'd much rather raise the flop with a flush draw and I think he'd expect us to do that which means our bluff (i assume this is a bluff?) isn't going to work a ton on the river.  I don't really expect him to show up with worse for value either and if he does you probably fold that out anyway!  If you think he's being overly out of line i'd much rather check call same with J9.  In terms of showdown value, J9 and KT are very similar here.

If you want to go into what the worst we should be shoving here against a high level thinking agro opponent then that's not a short conversation!

edit: phew looks like it was a bluff from thread title lol.  still hate it

[cambridgealex]

yeh i think J9 and KT aren't all that different. Although we can more comfortably call with J9 as we beat his AA, AK, KQ hands that are vbetting the river lightish - the hands we are trying to fold out with KT.

[pleno1]

i dont know if I'd raise flop with fd, I expect to get defended alot and on turns its really awkward.

I think my range looks like Kx, Jx or flush draw when I flat the flop/turn, on river he never expects me to c/jam Kx/Jx even sets/2 pairs, I CAN NEVER HAVE PURE AIR here, so when I jam ithas to be a flush, I think he folds two pair for sure and although he maybe calls with a set, 99=j5.

I also think he's valuebetting widely enough, AK/AA for sure, KQ aswell maybe and has so many two pairs that c/c river isn't very good at all and if you fold you can't win

[SuuPRlim]

I think in overall game theory perspective check jamming is FAR superior to chk calling, which I think is far far worse than chk folding. If we are going to have any air in our river c/r range this hand is as good as any imo.

If his value range is wide enough this is, if he is betting a narrow value range on the river then obv's we have to chk fold would be burning $ to do anything else.

c/r or c/f >>>>>>>> chk call

I think J9 and KT are similar in terms of there overall hand strength + both towards the bottom of our mid-hand range, KT is so weak here I think it's an ideal hand to bluff with, but I think J9 is a really interesting spot - It is not playing well against his legitimate river value range at all, but I think it is just too strong to turn into a bluff, and I doubt we can c/c and show a profit....

So i'm saying c/j KT and c/f J9 lol....I think.... seem weird though...

[cambridgealex]

So i'm saying c/j KT and c/f J9 lol....I think.... seem weird though...

cant be right surely?

[Rupert]

Hmm I could say quite a lot about this hand... I'd say having a really tight c/r range on the flop (or no c/r range at all) is a mistake.  I'd also say having no c/c range on the river is a mistake.

KT is definitely a better hand than J9 to jam, but there are far better hands than KT that are not only lower in our range but have blockers to prominent parts of his value range that we want to have to make him more likely to be bluffing.

[pleno1]

 think on this board its ok to have a tight c/r rane, if it was 842 or even 1075 c/r with flushdraws is alot better as we get more equity elsewhere/bluff cards etc.

[pokerfan]

Pretty unexploitable, rather just flip yhis dude though tbh.

[Rupert]

ya but when your c/r range on wet boards is just made hands and never a draw (or like some 3 combo of really strong draws) then your hand is pretty much face up and fds on this board specifically are often overcard+fd or tp+fd or sd+fd which are all great hands to have your in cr/get in range.  You definitely want some fds in your river c/c c/c range but as standard and on the board in particular the vast majority should be in your c/r flop range IMO.  You could definitely get a jack to fold by the river if not a king.

I think you're overestimating how thin he's going for value.  The bluff is basically hinging on him value betting AA and worse which in itself is unlikely but he has to fold these and he has to fold even better which given what he likely thinks about our range containing few FDs it's could be tough for him to fold two pair.

[SuuPRlim]

Hmm I could say quite a lot about this hand... I'd say having a really tight c/r range on the flop (or no c/r range at all) is a mistake.  I'd also say having no c/c range on the river is a mistake.

KT is definitely a better hand than J9 to jam, but there are far better hands than KT that are not only lower in our range but have blockers to prominent parts of his value range that we want to have to make him more likely to be bluffing.

+1 although when we have KT I dont think him bluffing more should stop us Jamming as I think c/c is mistake, the wider he bluffs the more credit to a J9 c/call even though I still think it's JUST too weak to c/call even if AA and AK are in his value range...If he is bluffing near to 100% of his air, and turning stuff like  into a bluff, only then I think we can actually c/call J9 and show a profit.

So i'm saying c/j KT and c/f J9 lol....I think.... seem weird though...

cant be right surely?

Why not? does seem mental but can't think of a reason why not.

[Rupert]

those hands you listed are pretty much the minimum i expect a very very agro player to be bluffing as standard...

[SuuPRlim]

those hands you listed are pretty much the minimum i expect a very very agro player to be bluffing as standard...

mmm who knows then maybe we should c/call J9 - problem is here we could go round and round in circles with this kind of theory which i'd be happy to do if it wasn't 5am....

Pleno's HU hands made sick PHA activity for today though got my holdem brain really ticking again keep em coming.