Alone in the Dark - The poker musings of an also ran

[redarmi]

Other two players stacks are quite important here Tom.  I probably fold but it is close. 

[redarmi]

Just ran this through SNGWiz and assuming the other two stacks are roughly equal and the raiser and BB are average players in terms of their range then it is an ICM shove and it isn't that close really.

[cambridgealex]

shove ainec was my reaction too. obv stack sizes important tho

[RED-DOG]

Thanks Guys.

When you play turbo STTS you really get to see variance in action.

So many showdowns where your best hand loses, or your worst hand wins, often in the most outrageous fashion.

If you didn't know better, it would cause you to say that online poker is rigged. I  especially like that pause while it works out what the miracle card is just before it deals the river.

[smashedagain]

Thanks Guys.

When you play turbo STTS you really get to see variance in action.

So many showdowns where your best hand loses, or your worst hand wins, often in the most outrageous fashion.

If you didn't know better, it would cause you to say that online poker is rigged. I  especially like that pause while it works out what the miracle card is just before it deals the river.

i went to a black belt seminar yesterday. one of the guys said he dont play on line anymore and when he had AK two seats away always beat him but it was not just him his mate had a million hands to prove it. i was so embarressed that i could not stop myself pissing myself out loud. i then had to bite my finger when another guy come out with some more bollocks, and this was the guy giving the seminar tears were streaming down my eyes

[RED-DOG]

Thanks Guys.

When you play turbo STTS you really get to see variance in action.

So many showdowns where your best hand loses, or your worst hand wins, often in the most outrageous fashion.

If you didn't know better, it would cause you to say that online poker is rigged. I  especially like that pause while it works out what the miracle card is just before it deals the river.

i went to a black belt seminar yesterday. one of the guys said he dont play on line anymore and when he had AK two seats away always beat him but it was not just him his mate had a million hands to prove it. i was so embarressed that i could not stop myself pissing myself out loud. i then had to bite my finger when another guy come out with some more bollocks, and this was the guy giving the seminar tears were streaming down my eyes

The thing is, if you could see the same number of showdowns playing live poker, you would think that was rigged too.

[pokerfan]

Thanks Guys.

When you play turbo STTS you really get to see variance in action.

So many showdowns where your best hand loses, or your worst hand wins, often in the most outrageous fashion.

If you didn't know better, it would cause you to say that online poker is rigged. I  especially like that pause while it works out what the miracle card is just before it deals the river.

i went to a black belt seminar yesterday. one of the guys said he dont play on line anymore and when he had AK two seats away always beat him but it was not just him his mate had a million hands to prove it. i was so embarressed that i could not stop myself pissing myself out loud. i then had to bite my finger when another guy come out with some more bollocks, and this was the guy giving the seminar tears were streaming down my eyes

The thing is, if you could see the same number of showdowns playing live poker, you would think that was rigged too.

Live poker is deffo rigged.

[doubleup]

So what are the odds that any three from five cards will be of the same suit?

Also, what are the odds that they will be of a of a specific suit?

286 combinations of 3 cards from 13 of a suit
741 combinations of 2 others from the 39 not of that suit
2598960 combinations of 5 cards from 52

so (286x741)/2598960 = .081543

So 8% for brocolli and 32% for any colour.


which is lower than I would have thought..

[RED-DOG]

So what are the odds that any three from five cards will be of the same suit?

Also, what are the odds that they will be of a of a specific suit?

286 combinations of 3 cards from 13 of a suit
741 combinations of 2 others from the 39 not of that suit
2598960 combinations of 5 cards from 52

so (286x741)/2598960 = .081543

So 8% for brocolli and 32% for any colour.


which is lower than I would have thought..

Wow, me too.

The numbers make my head hurt. Can you explain them to me as if you are explaining to a 5 year old?

How do you know that there are 286 combinations of 3 cards from 13 of a suit for instance?

[doubleup]

How do you know that there are 286 combinations of 3 cards from 13 of a suit for instance?

I've forgotten the general formula (written as a rule) for combinations but the way it works is

for combos of 2 its 10x9 divided by 2x1

for combos of 3 its 10x9x8 divided by 3x2x1

for combos of 4 its 10x9x8x7 divided by 4x3x2x1

The multiplication bit is matching the things together eg   and the division is removing the duplicates eg  .  The difference between a combination and a permutation is the order doesnt matter in a combo, but it does in a perm.  So you wouldn't do the division bit to work out permutations.



 

[RED-DOG]

How do you know that there are 286 combinations of 3 cards from 13 of a suit for instance?

I've forgotten the general formula (written as a rule) for combinations but the way it works is

for combos of 2 its 10x9 divided by 2x1

for combos of 3 its 10x9x8 divided by 3x2x1

for combos of 4 its 10x9x8x7 divided by 4x3x2x1

The multiplication bit is matching the things together eg   and the division is removing the duplicates eg  .  The difference between a combination and a permutation is the order doesnt matter in a combo, but it does in a perm.  So you wouldn't do the division bit to work out permutations.



 

For me, this is like watching an artist paint, or a ballerina dance. I can't do it, but I can stand back and appreciate it.

[doubleup]

How do you know that there are 286 combinations of 3 cards from 13 of a suit for instance?

I've forgotten the general formula (written as a rule) for combinations but the way it works is

for combos of 2 its 10x9 divided by 2x1

for combos of 3 its 10x9x8 divided by 3x2x1

for combos of 4 its 10x9x8x7 divided by 4x3x2x1

The multiplication bit is matching the things together eg   and the division is removing the duplicates eg  .  The difference between a combination and a permutation is the order doesnt matter in a combo, but it does in a perm.  So you wouldn't do the division bit to work out permutations.



 

For me, this is like watching an artist paint, or a ballerina dance. I can't do it, but I can stand back and appreciate it.

hmmmmmm don't think so - I deliberately used 10 in my example so that you could have a go at working out the combinations of 3 from 13 using my example as a guide....

[RED-DOG]

It's like I'm running across an ice field and I come upon a wide crevasse. I want to take the leap, but I'm just too scared.

[smashedagain]

Thanks Guys.

When you play turbo STTS you really get to see variance in action.

So many showdowns where your best hand loses, or your worst hand wins, often in the most outrageous fashion.

If you didn't know better, it would cause you to say that online poker is rigged. I  especially like that pause while it works out what the miracle card is just before it deals the river.

i went to a black belt seminar yesterday. one of the guys said he dont play on line anymore and when he had AK two seats away always beat him but it was not just him his mate had a million hands to prove it. i was so embarressed that i could not stop myself pissing myself out loud. i then had to bite my finger when another guy come out with some more bollocks, and this was the guy giving the seminar tears were streaming down my eyes

The thing is, if you could see the same number of showdowns playing live poker, you would think that was rigged too.

just opened bluff magazine and seen one of the presenters says in his article that he got another flag for his hendonmob at blackbelt live. justed pmsl again when i checked it out. as winning satelittes is the only thing i am good at on line and is what i teach novices to be successful at i thought i would go down there and pick up some more stuff that i can incorporate in to my game.
 

the whole 7 hours was about winning sats live and online and with a view to winning a seat to the wsop. one of the things that most intrested me was the programme sit n go wizard. have asked jamie burland to send me the hand details but with about 16 left 6 seats available about 360k chips in play (so obv 60k will be av stack when the seat bubble bursts)  blinds 800/1600 ante? you are sat with AA on a stack of 41k in cut off??. guy before you shoves his 30k and you had to fold. tried telling me that sng wiz would say fold so as they had it on their lap top when i asked em to show me there was some sort of technical error.


100% get that you can fold aces on the bubble sitting pretty in chips and this was actually done. but they then loled at shorty shoving 7k with KQ...k9 calls k2 calls 49 calls A6 folds?? which is the winning hand and actually 49 hits a 4 to make the only pair. shorty wins otherwise and i said that everyone calling shorty and checking down is pretty standard 7 nights a week.


Just off the top of my head i have won in the last 18 months 1 x wsop package on stars , 1 irish open package on paddy power , 1 irish open seat at dtd, 1 irish open seat in the super in the burlington, 2 irish winter festival packages on paddy power, 2 irish winter festival seats in super , 4 ukipt packages and 3 seat only on stars, 1 chilli open package to marrakesh, i chilli open package to costa brava, 4 gukpt seats in live sats, 1 monte carlo seat and dozens of dtd deepstack seats.


i felt a bit cheated out of 15 hours of my precious time yesterday and have drafted an email to tell neil so.....have not found the bottle to push send tho

[RED-DOG]

That's an interesting piece Jason. Would you mind if I break it down into paragraphs to make it a little more readable?