Taking advantage of the relegation permutations- blackburn to win by one goal

[easypickings]

Any love for this? It's probably going to seem either crazy or boring, but I believe 1) it's insanely important for Wolves, and 2) if they realise this, there is big value in betting on a one-goal Blackbum victory (i.e. 1-0, 2-1)

If you're sad enough like me to work out the numbers (I've got a massive bet on Blackpool to go down at 9-1, that's my excuse anyway), then Wolves are in a rare situation where it's really important for them to follow the other scores, and to adjust massively. The most bizarre adjustment is that, in a lot of scenarios, they should be happy to kick the ball around and play out a 1-0 defeat.

It all rests on the fact that both Blackpool and Birmingham will overtake Wolves if they get a point and Wolves lose by two goals, but not if Wolves lose by one. It makes a one goal defeat the pivot scoreline; the one thing Wolves might realise from the start is that in no scenario can a draw be better than a 1-0 defeat for them, and so they are effectively the same.

So, it could play out in two different types of scenarios. Here's the simple one:

1) Wolves are lucky enough to finish 5 minutes later than the other games. Results are in, and Blackpool and Birmingham have both drawn (Wigan's result actually doesn't matter). Wolves are losing 1-0. Now, if they play out their one goal defeat, they are 100% safe. If they don't, one Blackburn goal relegates them. So, bizarrely, it would actually be suicide not to.

And the more complicated one. This would be one example of many:

2) Twenty minutes to go, Wolves 1-0 down, Wigan losing easily, Birmingham and Blackpool both drawing.

Bizarrely, Wolves would be wrong to do anything other than play out a 1-0 defeat (which I'm guessing Blackburn would let them do!)

If they do, they can only go down if both Blackpool and Birmingham score. Unlikely. And if this happens, they could only have saved themselves by scoring two goals  anyway.

If they carry on playing, they will go down if they let in one more goal. Considerably more likely.

Now whether Wolves would realise that and put it into action is another thing, but it will get interesting, as it would be a massive mistake NOT to.

It's massively anti-football; the standard manager's line is "we'll concentrate on our own game, and not worry about other scores," but Wolves are in a rare situation where this attitude could be monumentally wrong.

Anyway, after all that, I'm going to punt it. They might realise it to some extent, and so I think 1-0 to Blackburn is a good tip.

[MC]

Yeah it is kinda interesting, you make a good point, but would make sense for Wolves to go ftw in the first half and perhaps see where they are at come half time

[TheChipPrince]

Where did u get 9-1 on B'pool, did they reach that high at one point?

[easypickings]

Where did u get 9-1 on B'pool, did they reach that high at one point?

Drunken argument on Christmas Day that they could still go down. I think they were 8th at the time.

[Bongo]

Is this like the ICM of the football world?

[AndrewT]

You're putting a lot of faith in footballers understanding maths.

[Nico29]

Nice work, seeing as im mass funking for blackburn to go down im hoping this wont happen.

Yet if this was in italy this would now be a cert result dependant on other teams not spoiling their sides.

[easypickings]

You're putting a lot of faith in footballers understanding maths.

you don't think they will? Lol. And Mick McCarthy too?

Great manager, but I don't really see him doing anything but saying "we'lll just concentrate on our own game," which just maybe could turn into one of the greatest ever mistakes.

[pokerfan]

You're putting a lot of faith in footballers understanding maths.

you don't think they will? Lol. And Mick McCarthy too?

Great manager, but I don't really see him doing anything but saying "we'lll just concentrate on our own game," which just maybe could turn into one of the greatest ever mistakes.

He's pretty much obliged to say that, but obv he will know the perms.

[AndrewT]

He's pretty much obliged to say that, but obv he will know the perms.

He won't know more about the perms than this manager.

[easypickings]

He's pretty much obliged to say that, but obv he will know the perms.

He won't know more about the perms than this manager.

He knows alot about perms.

I predict know an incredible moment where other scores are in, Wolves are safe if they stop, but concentrate on their own game, and let in a second goal.

[smashedagain]

He's pretty much obliged to say that, but obv he will know the perms.

He won't know more about the perms than this manager.

Another scunthorpe united legend.

[redarmi]

I think there is a lot of logic in this.  I have spent a lot of time modelling and adjusting poisson distributions for football matches and the big lesson from it is that if both teams are suited by a result then poisson doesn't work as well.  This usually comes in games which finish 0-0 and it kinda suits both teams (something like a Man Utd away to Spurs) and the game just comes to a grinding halt.  This is now incorporated into most bookies models now but games like this aren't normally accounted for as well.  Of course it relies to a degree on both teams understanding this and not going all out for the win but like Stu says this shouldn't be a problem here.  I am probably going to this game as my nephew plays for Blackburn so might have to get involved....

[sweet potata!]

I think there is a lot of logic in this.  I have spent a lot of time modelling and adjusting poisson distributions for football matches and the big lesson from it is that if both teams are suited by a result then poisson doesn't work as well.  This usually comes in games which finish 0-0 and it kinda suits both teams (something like a Man Utd away to Spurs) and the game just comes to a grinding halt.  This is now incorporated into most bookies models now but games like this aren't normally accounted for as well.  Of course it relies to a degree on both teams understanding this and not going all out for the win but like Stu says this shouldn't be a problem here.  I am probably going to this game as my nephew plays for Blackburn so might have to get involved....

go on then?

[millidonk]

I think there is a lot of logic in this.  I have spent a lot of time modelling and adjusting poisson distributions for football matches and the big lesson from it is that if both teams are suited by a result then poisson doesn't work as well.  This usually comes in games which finish 0-0 and it kinda suits both teams (something like a Man Utd away to Spurs) and the game just comes to a grinding halt.  This is now incorporated into most bookies models now but games like this aren't normally accounted for as well.  Of course it relies to a degree on both teams understanding this and not going all out for the win but like Stu says this shouldn't be a problem here.  I am probably going to this game as my nephew plays for Blackburn so might have to get involved....

go on then?

Obv should be in my celeb thread...