River decision £50 live nlhe mtt

[Pinchop73]

Hi,

This is my first post on blonde. Analysis of the following hand would be greatly appreciated.

Live £50 NLHE MTT

Level 7, 300/600 ante 50

9 handed table

Folds round to villain in the C/O who limps (playing 25kish). He has just arrived at the table no more than a couple hands ago, this his first hand played. Totally readless.

Folds to hero in the BB, I'm holding  . Hero raises to 1375. Has 20k behind.

Villain flats.

Flop  (pot 3500)

Hero bets 2200. Villain calls.

Turn  (pot 7900)

Hero bets 3500. Villain calls.

River  (pot 14900)

Hero?...

[pleno1]

nice.

c/f now.

[Rupert]

a lot more pre, I'd jam river c/f is close tho and might be better

[pleno1]

this is like the nut worst card to jam imo. he's never calling worse if hes limping rpe and never folding better (maybe bottom two or something stupid but still, he checks these back enough to make it a c/f imo)

[pleno1]

didnt see pre

2025 pre pls.

[smashedagain]

Its a £50 live game he still calls even if you popped it to 3k. As he has just come to the table it is highly unlikely he has air or a hand you are beating. Like pleno says most conceivable draws just got there and if we were not beat on the flop we are certainly behind know. I'm a nit tho and just feel you have inflated the pot with top pair and now have put yourself in this difficult spot

[Skippy]

Its a £50 live game he still calls even if you popped it to 3k.

Pre, you mean?

Yeah, we know he's not folding. It's a value raise, innit.

[muckthenuts]

2200-2600 pre. Think i'm check/folding the river

[Pinchop73]

My thoughts during the hand.

My raise pre was a silly mistake. This level had only just started, and I had not realised. I did not have any smaller denomination chips so just had a 1k poasted out there. I raised thinking it was still 200/400. D'oh! Nevermind.

With the only info I had on villain, a limp, I decided to pin him as a meh reg, ie, he'd defo raise ATo+ from the C/O, so I raised for a bit of value.

When he calls my flop bet I certainly have weak ace combos in his range, certainly worse than AQ. I also don't see him flatting if he's hit two pair with a flush draw out there. I keep a flush draw in his range as not all semi decent players raise this flop to bloat the pot if the diamond does come.

When the brick lands on the turn I decide to lead nearly half pot. This I felt gave two pair combos the perfect spot to raise all in to block the flush draw, without me commiting TOO much. It also keeps the flush/straight draw in whilst extracting decent value if the diamond/T doesn't come.

So when he flats the turn I pretty much exactly have him on a Raggy ace, KQ or a flush draw.

When it hits I sigh a big fml and check. Jamming had crossed my mind as my line can look like a nut flush, but I felt that I did not have enough FE with just a pot sized shove to make a weaker flush fold enough times.

He bets out 8k.

The bet size screams of a value bet from a flush by a meh reg I know, but how often is a meh reg betting a raggy ace here? More than 1 in 2 to make a call profitable?

Opinions on my thoughts during the hand?

[cambridgealex]

Seems very reasonable. The thought of getting him to fold a small flush wouldn't ever cross my mind though.

[pleno1]

he's not folding small flush bro.

[Pinchop73]

If he did have a flush I felt it wasn't super strong, as I think most meh regs raise the flop with the nut draw.

I guess I could bet like quarter pot on the turn and get the same info as I did with a half pot bet, but this might give me enough FE on the river to make the small flush fold out enough times to make the river shove profitable. My line would stink of a nut flush too, assuming he's a thinker.

[cambridgealex]

If he did have a flush I felt it wasn't super strong, as I think most meh regs raise the flop with the nut draw.

I guess I could bet like quarter pot on the turn and get the same info as I did with a half pot bet, but this might give me enough FE on the river to make the small flush fold out enough times to make the river shove profitable. My line would stink of a nut flush too, assuming he's a thinker.

forget all that mate, bluffing weak regs live is just a terrible idea full stop let alone bluffing them off flushes. Generally, the most i'll try and bluff them off is Ahigh, or very weak pairs, they just don't fold. You played it fine, I'd maybe even bet a little bigger on the turn, perhaps 2/3 pot, he wont fold Ax or a FD.

If he's really bad then you can put a tiny value/blocker bet on the river to get paid by Ax but not vs anyone halfdecent.

[muckthenuts]

If he did have a flush I felt it wasn't super strong, as I think most meh regs raise the flop with the nut draw.

I guess I could bet like quarter pot on the turn and get the same info as I did with a half pot bet, but this might give me enough FE on the river to make the small flush fold out enough times to make the river shove profitable. My line would stink of a nut flush too, assuming he's a thinker.

forget all that mate, bluffing weak regs live is just a terrible idea full stop let alone bluffing them off flushes. Generally, the most i'll try and bluff them off is Ahigh, or very weak pairs, they just don't fold. You played it fine, I'd maybe even bet a little bigger on the turn, perhaps 2/3 pot, he wont fold Ax or a FD.

If he's really bad then you can put a tiny value/blocker bet on the river to get paid by Ax but not vs anyone halfdecent.

This. The blocker bet is an option, something like 2k but i think with stacks and lack of a decent read i prefer check/folding.

[Solaris]

I b/f. Your not going to get raised on the river by 1 pair hands and we can get value from A6s type hands that he's called with.

Jamming seems very spewy.