River...

[SuuPRlim]

A semi interesting spot from yesterday...

playing $10/$25 at the rio.

Btn straddles for $50. sb folds, BB who is the mark in the game completes playing $3,500.

folds to MP, the best player at the table playing ~$15k who ISO's to $200.

I call in the CO with  playing $9.5k and the BB calls as well.

Flop ($660) 

BB chks, MP bets $375 I call BB folds

Turn ($1410) 

MP bets $625, I call

River ($2,660) 

MP bets $1,400.

I have $8,200~ back before calling the $1,400

call or raise what do we like and why.

This player is very very good, I've been playing pretty tight, but not mega nitty - he certainly won't see me as a lunatic and will almost deffo give me credit in big spots post flop.

[mondatoo]

Don't see him calling with worse if you raise esp when you have a nitty image. I call.

[outragous76]

villain = hero imo   

[outragous76]

oh, and I just call

[strak33]

Call and be unhappy when he shows you toby lewis?

[pleno1]

i want to raise/fold this river.

[DMorgan]

Raise, I think he's gunna bet bigger on the end with most of his value range that beats you.

Looks a lot like Ax one pair, maybe J9

I'd make it 3.8k

[piestack]

will almost deffo give me credit in big spots post flop.

so just call imo

[the sicilian]

Its a call.... don't think there is any value in raising..u calling if he sticks it in ur eye? and would you be winning ? don't give him the chance to shove you off when you have massive showdown value

[SuuPRlim]

Raise, I think he's gunna bet bigger on the end with most of his value range that beats you.

Looks a lot like Ax one pair, maybe J9

I'd make it 3.8k

fwiw I think he is going to show up with AK/AQ/AT an OVERWHELMING amount of the time

[mondatoo]

Raise, I think he's gunna bet bigger on the end with most of his value range that beats you.

Looks a lot like Ax one pair, maybe J9

I'd make it 3.8k

fwiw I think he is going to show up with AK/AQ/AT an OVERWHELMING amount of the time

How much of your river raising range will he think consists of bluffs ? You have a ton of 2pr hands, could have slow played 99,55 or have 108. The only hands I can see that you bluff with are Q10,some Jxcc,9xcc or KQcc.

[DMorgan]

Raise, I think he's gunna bet bigger on the end with most of his value range that beats you.

Looks a lot like Ax one pair, maybe J9

I'd make it 3.8k

fwiw I think he is going to show up with AK/AQ/AT an OVERWHELMING amount of the time

Then you answered your own question

He's almost never going to turn these hands into bluffs so raising is at worst EV neutral in comparison to calling

[the sicilian]

Raise, I think he's gunna bet bigger on the end with most of his value range that beats you.

Looks a lot like Ax one pair, maybe J9

I'd make it 3.8k

fwiw I think he is going to show up with AK/AQ/AT an OVERWHELMING amount of the time

Then you answered your own question

He's almost never going to turn these hands into bluffs so raising is at worst EV neutral in comparison to calling

snap call if he sticks it in ur eye ?

[DMorgan]

No I'd be raise/folding

I would expect to get shipped on a very small %age of the time though

[the sicilian]

No I'd be raise/folding

I would expect to get shipped on a very small %age of the time though

so pretty much our value range is he has AK AQ...... he pretty much doesn't call with anything less as it has been stated he is very very good.. ?