QQ deep in warm up

[Nico29]

won't let me copy the stupid thing and am not gonna write all that out while grinding!

but yeah

qq v 4.2%=56.445%
   
jjv 4.2%=48.598%

akv 4.2%=43.838%

[SuuPRlim]

Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
QQ,                                                                                  24.6347%,23.6580%,1.9543%
"AA-66,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax8x,KxTx-Kx9x,QxJx-QxTx,JxTx",   26.4150%,25.2422%,2.3465%
"AA-99,AK,AxQx",                                                               48.9503%,47.3110%,3.2795%

was it something like that Nico?

The thinking that AK is a worse hand equity wise here than JJ is defo wrong imo.  id be hating life with JJ and snaping it in with AK.


Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
AK,                                                                                    51.6085%,43.6512%,16.0713%
"AA-66,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax8x,KxTx-Kx9x,QxJx-QxTx,JxTx",    18.4661%,16.4997%,4.0895%
"AA-99,AK,AxQx",                                                                29.9255%,23.5882%,12.8313%

[boldie]

Meh fold for me.

[Junior Senior]

Yeah all this stove stuff is great but with MCs stack and position of tournament isn't it better to fold and pick spots to exploit later on rather than potentially get this QQ in miles behind against a very likely KK or AA.

[Nico29]

Stove is god.

I'm always looking to win this type of a comp from 40 even 250 out, not merely survive/ladder by missing out on such +ev spots.

I gen still don't even think this is that close, i now agree that jj/ak is marginal and that we should insta fold tens and aqstd without specific detailed stats/reads on especially the cold 4bettor.

Part of the reason i don't think it's that close is from mc's detailed description of a fishy 3bettor and thus a spot where the 4bettor can def isolate wider than one might imagine.

Why does anyone have to have kk+ in this hand?

[outragous76]

Stove is god.

I'm always looking to win a comp from 40 out, not merely survive/ladder by missing out on such +ev spots.

I gen don't even think this is close, i'll agree that jj/ak is more marginal and that we should prob click insta fold tens and aqstd without specific detailed stats/reads on especially the cold 4bettor.

Why does anyone have to have kk+ in this hand?

we are not 40 out - we are 250 out

I think you also need to factor in the tourney - its a sunday, its not a 100r with a field of high stakes regs. We have 40bbs (which is huge in this tourney). There will be lots more spots where we can effcetively utilse this stack to abuse the players who are obvioulsy loooking to ladder. Flicking it in here with at best 50% equity seems to be the opposite of what you are suggesting you can achieve  - and that is the reason I fold, not because i think we are behind 100% of the tiime

[Nico29]

Stove is god.

I'm always looking to win a comp from 40 out, not merely survive/ladder by missing out on such +ev spots.

I gen don't even think this is close, i'll agree that jj/ak is more marginal and that we should prob click insta fold tens and aqstd without specific detailed stats/reads on especially the cold 4bettor.

Why does anyone have to have kk+ in this hand?

we are not 40 out - we are 250 out

I think you also need to factor in the tourney - its a sunday, its not a 100r with a field of high stakes regs. We have 40bbs (which is huge in this tourney). There will be lots more spots where we can effcetively utilse this stack to abuse the players who are obvioulsy loooking to ladder. Flicking it in here with at best 50% equity seems to be the opposite of what you are suggesting you can achieve  - and that is the reason I fold, not because i think we are behind 100% of the tiime

Who do we only hold 50% equity against here?

Just noticed the OP details the 4bettor as having fishy stats-must have missed that, although tbh that makes me even more inclined to get this in. If 4bettor was better i'd expect him only to at worst isolate with 9's and aqstd+, but if he's a fish himself he can on occasion have some random spazzy hands-effectively holdings like 66/kq/a10+ imo. Thus i wld include a random spazz hand like kq in his range just for balance and that makes it a cartwheel fistpump jammage.

If yr saying we only have 50% at best equity against the 4bettor then you are giving him a range of merely the top 2.6% of hands which is tens and akstd+, so yr saying the guy folds ako are you? Adding that increases our equity by 2% itself.

I gen think people over complicate some simple situations where we all know what the correct decision is instinctively. IRL i doubt many of us bar the most nitty pass qq here, but upon reflection we start to worry about such terms as 'tournament life'-yuck, and 'better spots'-double yuck and even looking at money jumps-treble yuck but i guess we are all human-i've been guilty myself b4.

I really do find it hard to believe any top online mtt player-like bram itt for example, passes qq here but as i'm not one i'll try and keep my mind open to ideas.

Not something i'm great with but i'm learning!

[SuuPRlim]

I think nico you've gotten muddled on a few points.

Firstly, according to the ranges you described on page one QQ has less than 25% equity in the 3way, and $EV of the hand is even lower given that the bigger pot is vs the tighter range. (see the stove i posted a few posts back.

If like you say we widen the 4bettors range to include some "spazzes" (lets widen his PP range to 66+ and throw KQs in as well)

Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
QQ,                                                                                  32.6483%,31.8260%,1.6463%
"AA-66,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax8x,KxTx-Kx9x,QxJx-QxTx,JxTx",    31.8919%,30.9233%,1.9388%
"AA-66,AK,AxQx,KxQx",                                                       35.4598%,34.3448%,2.2315%

Now admittedly we don;t need 50% here but I think the above situation is the most optimistic ranges we can assign,

Remember we're making the assumption that the other player in the hand never folds, which after a 3bet  and a cold 4 he now may well fold, which is actually worse for us because the main profit on the play given how close the 4bettors range is to our hand comes from the overlay of the weaker range..

Yeah all this stove stuff is great but with MCs stack and position of tournament isn't it better to fold and pick spots to exploit later on rather than potentially get this QQ in miles behind against a very likely KK or AA.

like in the other thread the stove stuff is actually the only way to solve this hand, so it is great lol - but the point you're making which is important to this i think is how much $EV we gain in this tournament by winning this hand as opposed to how much $EV we lose by losing it given how tight the spot prolly is. There are i'm sure plenty of spots in tournaments  **DISCLAIMER* not very experienced in online donkaments** where you have no fold equity and with a slight advantage over a villains range you lose more in equity by losing than you gain in equity by winning.

Having rambled on about all this I still don't really know what I'd do, I think instinctively in-game i'd go with it, but I do think it's prolly pretty dam close.

[Nico29]

I think nico you've gotten muddled on a few points.

Firstly, according to the ranges you described on page one QQ has less than 25% equity in the 3way, and $EV of the hand is even lower given that the bigger pot is vs the tighter range. (see the stove i posted a few posts back.

If like you say we widen the 4bettors range to include some "spazzes" (lets widen his PP range to 66+ and throw KQs in as well)

Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
QQ,                                                                                   32.6483%,31.8260%,1.6463%
"AA-66,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax8x,KxTx-Kx9x,QxJx-QxTx,JxTx",    31.8919%,30.9233%,1.9388%
"AA-66,AK,AxQx,KxQx",                                                       35.4598%,34.3448%,2.2315%

Now admittedly we don;t need 50% here but I think the above situation is the most optimistic ranges we can assign,

Remember we're making the assumption that the other player in the hand never folds, which after a 3bet  and a cold 4 he now may well fold, which is actually worse for us because the main profit on the play given how close the 4bettors range is to our hand comes from the overlay of the weaker range..

Yeah all this stove stuff is great but with MCs stack and position of tournament isn't it better to fold and pick spots to exploit later on rather than potentially get this QQ in miles behind against a very likely KK or AA.

like in the other thread the stove stuff is actually the only way to solve this hand, so it is great lol - but the point you're making which is important to this i think is how much $EV we gain in this tournament by winning this hand as opposed to how much $EV we lose by losing it given how tight the spot prolly is. There are i'm sure plenty of spots in tournaments  **DISCLAIMER* not very experienced in online donkaments** where you have no fold equity and with a slight advantage over a villains range you lose more in equity by losing than you gain in equity by winning.

Having rambled on about all this I still don't really know what I'd do, I think instinctively in-game i'd go with it, but I do think it's prolly pretty dam close.

Respect all of what you are saying, obv you are much more experienced in use of stove than me mate, i've only just started using it consisitently.

In fairness i don't think i was muddled as i did state earlier that i was just working out our equity against the 4bettors range-not the 3bettors, and not the orig rsr who can also felt us. Lazy indeed but not mixed up.

I do play a great deal of online donkaments- and would never fold in this situation but that's just me. I gen don't think in real time most ppl would either, yeah it looks a little snug in terms of how confident we can be that we are ahead of our villain's range-but tournament poker is all about very quick estimations and playing such premium hands strongly and not meekly.

Live i think we'd often fold v this action, online i just don't see how without specific ultra nit stats, here we have the opposite with the 3 and 4bettors seemingly fish with possible spazz tendencies.

[MC]

Thanks for the input guys.

My feeling at the time was: Ugh this is an ugly spot, but I sure am folding QQ here.

In-game I would have folded JJ and AK, AKs and I'm not sure.

From stoves and such it looks like a borderline kinda spot. Perhaps with a read that the 4-bettor is tight/unlikely to spaz or something you can fold, otherwise QQ+ looks pretty reasonable.

[SuuPRlim]

I think nico you've gotten muddled on a few points.

Firstly, according to the ranges you described on page one QQ has less than 25% equity in the 3way, and $EV of the hand is even lower given that the bigger pot is vs the tighter range. (see the stove i posted a few posts back.

If like you say we widen the 4bettors range to include some "spazzes" (lets widen his PP range to 66+ and throw KQs in as well)

Player,Equity,Wins Hi,Ties Hi
QQ,                                                                                   32.6483%,31.8260%,1.6463%
"AA-66,AK-AT,KQ-KJ,Ax9x-Ax8x,KxTx-Kx9x,QxJx-QxTx,JxTx",    31.8919%,30.9233%,1.9388%
"AA-66,AK,AxQx,KxQx",                                                       35.4598%,34.3448%,2.2315%

Now admittedly we don;t need 50% here but I think the above situation is the most optimistic ranges we can assign,

Remember we're making the assumption that the other player in the hand never folds, which after a 3bet  and a cold 4 he now may well fold, which is actually worse for us because the main profit on the play given how close the 4bettors range is to our hand comes from the overlay of the weaker range..

Yeah all this stove stuff is great but with MCs stack and position of tournament isn't it better to fold and pick spots to exploit later on rather than potentially get this QQ in miles behind against a very likely KK or AA.

like in the other thread the stove stuff is actually the only way to solve this hand, so it is great lol - but the point you're making which is important to this i think is how much $EV we gain in this tournament by winning this hand as opposed to how much $EV we lose by losing it given how tight the spot prolly is. There are i'm sure plenty of spots in tournaments  **DISCLAIMER* not very experienced in online donkaments** where you have no fold equity and with a slight advantage over a villains range you lose more in equity by losing than you gain in equity by winning.

Having rambled on about all this I still don't really know what I'd do, I think instinctively in-game i'd go with it, but I do think it's prolly pretty dam close.

Respect all of what you are saying, obv you are much more experienced in use of stove than me mate, i've only just started using it consisitently.

In fairness i don't think i was muddled as i did state earlier that i was just working out our equity against the 4bettors range-not the 3bettors, and not the orig rsr who can also felt us. Lazy indeed but not mixed up.

I do play a great deal of online donkaments- and would never fold in this situation but that's just me. I gen don't think in real time most ppl would either, yeah it looks a little snug in terms of how confident we can be that we are ahead of our villain's range-but tournament poker is all about very quick estimations and playing such premium hands strongly and not meekly.

Live i think we'd often fold v this action, online i just don't see how without specific ultra nit stats, here we have the opposite with the 3 and 4bettors seemingly fish with possible spazz tendencies.

Yeah, I agree I wouldnt fold either prolly lol - I imagine you're instincts for donkaments are far greater than mine, but I've done a stove or two and just trying to shore the numbers up for ya

fwiw ProPokerTools have an app called odds oracle and it is far >>>>>>>>>>>> pokerstove, costs $30 but I would recomend highly.

[EvilPie]

The stove stuff is absolutely brilliant but when it's this close you have to be really certain of your ranges.

A small slip the wrong way and you're absolutely crushed.

I just think that in spots like this we can't be certain enough of the 4 bettor's range to go with QQ.

In the absence of solid reads I tend to make the assumption that a 3 bet is strong and a 4 bet is even stronger.

If one of them doesn't have me the other probably does and by folding there's a 100% chance that I'm maintaining my 40 bigs.

In the heat of battle though whilst sat on the sofa playing this comp I probably see the chance of winning it all and just shove.

[mondatoo]

The stove stuff is absolutely brilliant but when it's this close you have to be really certain of your ranges.

A small slip the wrong way and you're absolutely crushed.

I just think that in spots like this we can't be certain enough of the 4 bettor's range to go with QQ.

In the absence of solid reads I tend to make the assumption that a 3 bet is strong and a 4 bet is even stronger.

If one of them doesn't have me the other probably does and by folding there's a 100% chance that I'm maintaining my 40 bigs.

In the heat of battle though whilst sat on the sofa playing this comp I probably see the chance of winning it all and just shove.

Yeah but it's a bit different here since the 3b is a 3b shove for 10bbs so the 4bet isn't expecting the 3b to be that strong here.

[Nico29]

The stove stuff is absolutely brilliant but when it's this close you have to be really certain of your ranges.

A small slip the wrong way and you're absolutely crushed.

I just think that in spots like this we can't be certain enough of the 4 bettor's range to go with QQ.

In the absence of solid reads I tend to make the assumption that a 3 bet is strong and a 4 bet is even stronger.

If one of them doesn't have me the other probably does and by folding there's a 100% chance that I'm maintaining my 40 bigs.

In the heat of battle though whilst sat on the sofa playing this comp I probably see the chance of winning it all and just shove.

Yeah but it's a bit different here since the 3b is a 3b shove for 10bbs so the 4bet isn't expecting the 3b to be that strong here.

Agree.

For me it really is all about the 4b range, the other 2 don't have 2 be anywhere near as strong.

Also ty lil dave for pokertoools info, will ck it out.

Mc i know it really dsnt matter, im just nosey tho, fwiw what were the holdings here?

[EvilPie]

The stove stuff is absolutely brilliant but when it's this close you have to be really certain of your ranges.

A small slip the wrong way and you're absolutely crushed.

I just think that in spots like this we can't be certain enough of the 4 bettor's range to go with QQ.

In the absence of solid reads I tend to make the assumption that a 3 bet is strong and a 4 bet is even stronger.

If one of them doesn't have me the other probably does and by folding there's a 100% chance that I'm maintaining my 40 bigs.

In the heat of battle though whilst sat on the sofa playing this comp I probably see the chance of winning it all and just shove.

Yeah but it's a bit different here since the 3b is a 3b shove for 10bbs so the 4bet isn't expecting the 3b to be that strong here.

Yeah I know.

They're both making committing raises in to the big stack with others left to act as well. This is a decent indicator of strength.

I admit there's a strong chance that QQ is ahead.

I'm still not certain enough to go with it though.