Having outs vs Mitch. Ever profitable?

[cambridgealex]

1/2 live cash. Within the first couple of orbits of the night.

I raise the cutoff with to 12 in a straddled pot. Button calls. Mitch 3bets to 46 from the BB. I call playing £380 behind. The button calls.

Flop (£143)

(wiiii)

Mitch bets £80. We?

I thought about shoving, raise/calling it off and folding. What would you do and why?

Reads: Button is a new player to the game, young and sitting about 500 deep. Mitch is a massive luckbox. Range is wide pre, fairly wide otf.

[TheFallen]

Range is wide pre, fairly wide otf.

i wouldn't call a range of 3 hands fairly wide

[cambridgealex]

Range is wide pre, fairly wide otf.

i wouldn't call a range of 3 hands fairly wide

 

[redarmi]

Probably folding here most of the time but obv against a player like Mitch (going on rep here as have never played him) you can't just fold all the time so would occasionally i think you have to shove or raise call it off for metagame purposes but I think you only really take those options against a player you play regularly.  Irrespective i think the default has to be to fold.  This is obv a pretty shit answer too!!!!
 

[cambridgealex]

can someone smart tell we how to work out whether its a profitable shove given the following assumptions:

-His range is 99+,AJs+,KJs+,AJo+,KJo+. Could perhaps be a fair bit wider but this is just an estimation.

-He folds AK, AQ, KQ maybe TT?

Vs the range that calls I'm 29%

Board:
Dead: 
   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    29.338%     29.24%    00.10%             10420           36.00   { KsQs }
Hand 1:    70.662%     70.56%    00.10%             25148           36.00   { 99+, AJs, AJo }

And I win £223 in dead money the times he folds AK AQ KQ + any other air he happen to have.

[redarmi]

If you fold now your equity is £0

If he folds your equity is £223 so you multiply £223 by the percentage of times he folds so say he folds 15% of the time your equity here is 15% of £223.

Then we assume he calls 85% of the time then your equity is 85%*29%*final pot.  If your equity for both the times he calls and the times he folds is less than the extra it costs you to shove then is isn't a profitable shove.  Does this make sense?

It isn't that clear cut in this example though because you are playing more than one player.  This would only apply if you were heads up.

[cambridgealex]

If you fold now your equity is £0

If he folds your equity is £223 so you multiply £223 by the percentage of times he folds so say he folds 15% of the time your equity here is 15% of £223.

Then we assume he calls 85% of the time then your equity is 85%*29%*final pot.  If your equity for both the times he calls and the times he folds is less than the extra it costs you to shove then is isn't a profitable shove.  Does this make sense?

It isn't that clear cut in this example though because you are playing more than one player.  This would only apply if you were heads up.

Surely he folds more than 15%? That's what i meant, how do you work out the combinations?

[T_Mar]

Bit long winded but you can work out combos like this

16 combos of any 2 random cards ( eg AK) but you  account for any cards that are known ...so here your hand is KQ  so combos of AK and AQ reduces to 12 (4 Aces, 3 Kings/queens).  AJ is also 12 as there is  a J on the flop.... If flop was JJ5 then combos of AJ would be 8 (4x2)

There are 6 combos of each pocket pair to start with but reduces to 3 when a card is out - so in this case there are 6 combos of AA but only 3 of KK and QQ, JJ, 99 and 55, obv there would only be 1 combo if for example there were 2 of a card out (flop was K95 and you had KQ)

There are 4 combos of each suited 2 cards and this reduces by 1 for each card known..... eg 4 combos of 87s but if flop was AJ7 there would only be 3 combos of 87s etc

Obv the suited combos are included in the 16 combos of random cards but if you only thought only suited cards were in his range then you could use this if you see what i mean

So work out his entire 3betting range and then work out combos of each, work out calling range and combos and then subtract

You can also weight certain hands, but that is more complicated and based on your assumptions of his play... eg There are 12 combos of AK but you think he is only likely to play AK like that 75% of the time in this spot so you can reduce combos to 9

[SuuPRlim]

well if you have 30% vs a calling range then you need him to fold 33% to break-even on the play (stnd FE calc)

the shove equity calc using this as mitch's 3bet range...

AA-99,AK-AJ,AxTx,KxQx-Kx8x,QxJx-Qx8x,JxTx-Jx8x,Tx9x-Tx8x,9x8x-9x7x,8x7x-8x6x,7x6x

and this as his calling range

99+, AJ-KJ, AJ-KJ:xx

Says he'll call only 32% of the time and you'll net ~57big blinds from the shove. I cant C&P the calc'sPQL cos its way too complex so i'll just put a screen shot of the calcuation

Click to see full-size image.

personally I don't think this is 100% accurate because I dont know if Mitch Cbets 9x suited (or folds them to a jam all the time) 100% or if his 3bet range is even this wide preflop?

either way though we need 33% folds to be +EV and when he's calli% with reasonable ranges is 32% its pretty clear it's going to be profitable to a certain extent.

[redarmi]

Surely he folds more than 15%? That's what i meant, how do you work out the combinations?

I was just using 15% as an example but I obv misunderstood the q anyway.....

[cambridgealex]

So shove?

[SuuPRlim]

So shove?

as long as he 3bets as wide as you make out and cbets almost 100% then its a clear shove. I suspect however it's prolly a lot closer. As it is right now we have Mitch calling only 32% of the time the breakeven point is 66% hence why we're making such a healthy profit.

Surely he folds more than 15%? That's what i meant, how do you work out the combinations?

buy Odds Oracle and use their shove equity calculator. it's the fucking nuts!
If you wanna put itt the range you believe Mitch to be 3betting pre and cbetting I'll do the calc again for you and photo in the results

[TheFallen]

Think Mitch pretty much exclusively 3bets totally depolarised in this spot with these stack sizes. So just don't recon he folds enough of his 3-bet-then-cbet-range (on a non cbet friendly board) to make the jam profitable. He might only fold exactly a gutshot infact, depending on what mood he is in (everyone knows Mitch' hero calling range become a lot more 'brave' if he happens to be losing a bit :-P and there are as many draws as value hand that make sense to jam).

vs other people i like a jam

[SuuPRlim]

Think Mitch pretty much exclusively 3bets totally depolarised in this spot with these stack sizes. So just don't recon he folds enough of his 3-bet-then-cbet-range (on a non cbet friendly board) to make the jam profitable. He might only fold exactly a gutshot infact, depending on what mood he is in (everyone knows Mitch' hero calling range become a lot more 'brave' if he happens to be losing a bit :-P and there are as many draws as value hand that make sense to jam).

vs other people i like a jam

you think he bet calls a 9 off? wold be interested to see what happens to the jam profitability if he is calling 97s etc. We actually play really really good vs those hands so might still be profitable.....

can someone post a range that Mitch is 3betting and Cbetting here for me?

[cambridgealex]

He called with TT so probs calling a 9x too. I can't see him 3betting many, if any 9xs oop. He'll just peel all his suited connectors in this spot I think. IP, range much wider.