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redarmi
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« on: August 20, 2011, 10:10:52 AM » |
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I am pretty sure that Arsenal will drift in this game to a value price. As we stand Arsenal are 15.5 on BF to win the title and Liverpool are 16.5 which suggests that Arsenal are the better team. That would suggest the right price, given home advantage, would be about 2.05-2.10. Obviously Arsenal have some injuries so the bookies prices of 11/8-6/4 are probably about right but it seems as though the punters as still backing Liverpool. it is as though the injuries are going to be in the price twice. I think 2.66 Arsenal now is value but I wouldn't be surprised to see it drift to 2.80 or so which I think is worthy of a decent bet.
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Karabiner
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2011, 10:31:03 AM » |
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I am pretty sure that Arsenal will drift in this game to a value price. As we stand Arsenal are 15.5 on BF to win the title and Liverpool are 16.5 which suggests that Arsenal are the better team. That would suggest the right price, given home advantage, would be about 2.05-2.10. Obviously Arsenal have some injuries so the bookies prices of 11/8-6/4 are probably about right but it seems as though the punters as still backing Liverpool. it is as though the injuries are going to be in the price twice. I think 2.66 Arsenal now is value but I wouldn't be surprised to see it drift to 2.80 or so which I think is worthy of a decent bet.
I wish that I had your confidence sir. I'd settle for a draw right now. |
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"Golf is deceptively simple and endlessly complicated. It satisfies the soul and frustrates the intellect. It is at the same time maddening and rewarding and it is without a doubt the greatest game that mankind has ever invented." - Arnold Palmer aka The King.
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redarmi
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2011, 11:15:20 AM » |
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Like all of my betting it is driven by price only. I am not particularly confident they will get something but i think they deserve to be favourites to do so. I honestly think anyone betting Liverpool here at these prices is betting on the basis of injuries and morale factors that the bookies have already factored in. Having said that the drift i predicted hasn't come. They are 2.56 now and were 2.66 when i posted.
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action man
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2011, 11:32:28 AM » |
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in an argument last night i laid arsenal at 1/1 to small money for a top 5 finish. Teams are arriving at the emirates thesedays expecting a result, not praying to sneak away with a draw like a few years ago. I think teams can sense arsenals vulnerability at present and they would have to get to 3.25 before I considered touching them at present.
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Nico29
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2011, 11:44:40 AM » |
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I agree totally with redarmi here.
Anywhere near 7-4 wld be insane value for me.
Tbh if it gets 13-8 it's involved time. RVP will lick his lips at that defence. Look at how sunderland ran the 2nd half last week.
Already now thinking goals cld be the bet as i doubt suarez and carroll will quiver too much at arsenal's reargard either, altho obv vermalen bk is a huge bonus.
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redarmi
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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2011, 11:55:55 AM » |
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Suarez on bench for Liverpool and Nasri starts for Arsenal......doubt we will see 6/4 again.
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Nico29
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2011, 12:01:05 PM » |
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Suarez on bench for Liverpool and Nasri starts for Arsenal......doubt we will see 6/4 again.
still 6/4 pads n sky ive bkd overs on goals, also on rvp fgs |
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action man
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« Reply #7 on: August 20, 2011, 12:19:06 PM » |
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if they reach 7/4 then i believe that may be the biggest price they have ever been at home for a good 12 years (in a prem game)
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boldie
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2011, 02:37:24 PM » |
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wiiiiiiiiiii
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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redarmi
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2011, 02:49:18 PM » |
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Suarez definitely going to be key for Liverpool. TBH I thought both teams looked poor but from a betting perspective I think I would want to be against Liverpool in next couple of games. Arsenal, on the other hand, might be a bit of value although they need some shoring up in defence for sure. Thought Frimpong was somewhat encouraging for Arsenal fans.
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action man
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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2011, 03:03:58 PM » |
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Both sides were blowing out of their arses even at about the 60th minute. Can rly see man u and man city pulling away clear this season
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boldie
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2011, 03:16:03 PM » |
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Suarez definitely going to be key for Liverpool. TBH I thought both teams looked poor but from a betting perspective I think I would want to be against Liverpool in next couple of games. Arsenal, on the other hand, might be a bit of value although they need some shoring up in defence for sure. Thought Frimpong was somewhat encouraging for Arsenal fans.
Think Arsenal really need 3 or 4 proper players.. |
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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nirvana
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« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2011, 03:24:17 PM » |
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With Fabregas going Arsenal are in pretty bad shape, I don't think we have a single player who, in their position, is better than the team of 2004/05.
Pretty poor to not have improved the team in a single position since that time. Maybe I'll join the Wenger must go bandwagon
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sola virtus nobilitat
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boldie
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« Reply #13 on: August 20, 2011, 03:56:28 PM » |
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With Fabregas going Arsenal are in pretty bad shape, I don't think we have a single player who, in their position, is better than the team of 2004/05.
Pretty poor to not have improved the team in a single position since that time. Maybe I'll join the Wenger must go bandwagon
You're actually quite a bit worse off as you also have no strength in depth anymore. OK, you have a lot of injuries ATM but it's just not good enough if you want to win trophies. No doubt that Wenger is a superb manager but his refusal to spend and agressively go after players is really holding you back. |
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Give a man a gun and he can rob a bank, give a man a bank and he can rob the world.
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