AQ UTG 30BB facing 3 bet

[roscopiko]

ITM about 50th with 100 runners left from 2400 starters

joeribogget is playing 34/15 over about 80 hands
wsu15 is 18/15 with a 3 bet of 7 over about 80 hands

Thoughts?

PokerStars Game #66448011953: Tournament #430040645, $3.00+$0.30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXII (1000/2000) - 2011/08/23 23:03:32 WET [2011/08/23 18:03:32 ET]
Table '430040645 64' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: wsu15 (81818 in chips)
Seat 2: KRMS2 (65702 in chips)
Seat 3: Ant15071982 (36988 in chips)
Seat 4: EMBurns (56749 in chips)
Seat 5: roscopiko (59621 in chips)
Seat 6: joeribogget (223579 in chips)
Seat 7: Ulli-Xt660X (7363 in chips)
Seat 8: Nero Ceasar (24398 in chips)
Seat 9: UrbanNinJaaa (23510 in chips) is sitting out
wsu15: posts the ante 250
KRMS2: posts the ante 250
Ant15071982: posts the ante 250
EMBurns: posts the ante 250
roscopiko: posts the ante 250
joeribogget: posts the ante 250
Ulli-Xt660X: posts the ante 250
Nero Ceasar: posts the ante 250
UrbanNinJaaa: posts the ante 250
Ant15071982: posts small blind 1000
EMBurns: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to roscopiko [  ]
roscopiko: raises 2240 to 4240
joeribogget: calls 4240
Ulli-Xt660X: folds
Nero Ceasar: folds
UrbanNinJaaa: folds
wsu15: raises 11759 to 15999

[Nico29]

The peel sets up the sqze imo.

Thus i'm not folding.

In we go, expect to be ahead a ton, flipping a great deal and crushed sometimes.

$3 Game, i'd be interested to know his sharkscope stats, he's prob bad, i assume most of yr opponents will be at this level.

Lol if he ever 3bets folds here!

[SuuPRlim]

Lol if he ever 3bets folds here!

If he's never 3bet folding then we need to pass no?

If he is 3bet folding then it's a pretty easy jam?

[Nico29]

Lol if he ever 3bets folds here!

If he's never 3bet folding then we need to pass no?

If he is 3bet folding then it's a pretty easy jam?

I just don't like 3b folding into 30bbs, equity disaster. And yeah i think he will often 3b fold because ppl are lol bad at such levels.

And so it is a pretty easy jam due to this reason and above points about his range being wide due to peel.

Even if he never folds to jam i actually think we are ahead of his range, so wldnt pass if knew this either.

Might click to mess with him anyway.

[Spraggs]

Jam.

especially if opponent is Russian/Romanian/Brazilian or any other nationality that insta-tilts you as soon as you hover the cursor over their avatar.

[millidonk]

Jam.

especially if opponent is Russian/Romanian/Brazilian or any other nationality that insta-tilts you as soon as you hover the cursor over their avatar.

Any nationality you are folding to? Belgian? Swiss?

[Spraggs]

nope just snap shoving any1 who i think thinks kappa shellsuits r "cool"

[doubleup]

I'd fold unless I'd given villain some reason to think that I was a loon.

[Pinchop73]

This, for me, is a shove, factoring in fold equity with the amount of stars ssmtt'ers who 3b/f off 40bigs, we need to chip up to give ourselves the best chance of cashing heavily.

[The Squid]

I would fold. At higher stakes maybe you have to go with it. This sizing from the bb and given your opening position, seems unlikely the man has AJ.

[George2Loose]

With the squid. It's a fold for me unless I have a disgusting image or I have reason to believe villian is squeezing light.

[SuuPRlim]

Lol if he ever 3bets folds here!

If he's never 3bet folding then we need to pass no?

If he is 3bet folding then it's a pretty easy jam?

I just don't like 3b folding into 30bbs, equity disaster. And yeah i think he will often 3b fold because ppl are lol bad at such levels.

And so it is a pretty easy jam due to this reason and above points about his range being wide due to peel.

Even if he never folds to jam i actually think we are ahead of his range, so wldnt pass if knew this either.

Might click to mess with him anyway.

This really doesn't make any sense.

it would be LOLbad to 3bet fold, but it's also a spot where his 3bet's are wider because of the limper which is why we're now jamming, and we expect a lolbad player to realise this and a good player to realise we realise this and 3bet call KQ and AJ?

dont get it

[Doobs]

With the squid. It's a fold for me unless I have a disgusting image or I have reason to believe villian is squeezing light.

pretty much this.  Better to assume that people aren't doing much range merging in MTTs as a whole, never mind $3 ones.

If he has done this a couple of times before, or has a swedish then I may think for a while before folding. 

[BulldozerD]

Muck em unless he's a loon

[Nico29]

Lol if he ever 3bets folds here!

If he's never 3bet folding then we need to pass no?

If he is 3bet folding then it's a pretty easy jam?

I just don't like 3b folding into 30bbs, equity disaster. And yeah i think he will often 3b fold because ppl are lol bad at such levels.

And so it is a pretty easy jam due to this reason and above points about his range being wide due to peel.

Even if he never folds to jam i actually think we are ahead of his range, so wldnt pass if knew this either.

Might click to mess with him anyway.

This really doesn't make any sense.

it would be LOLbad to 3bet fold, but it's also a spot where his 3bet's are wider because of the limper which is why we're now jamming, and we expect a lolbad player to realise this and a good player to realise we realise this and 3bet call KQ and AJ?

dont get it

Look im just saying i believe to 3b fold in2 30bbs effective is an equity spew that we can possibly exploit here.

If he 3b folds pocket pairs do we not benefit?

Similar with many live holding's we're almost flipping with like 67std, kjstd 910std etc..

I 3b for value as i believe we are ahead of his range as the peel makes it a great squeeze spot both for donks and sharks imo.

Rest of what u r saying im saying is levelling wars that aint going on in a 3 dollar comp.

All i was saying is that he will 3b fold some hands we are flipping with and i disagree they won't 3b stack off with dominated holdings either.

Just get it in and enjoy either a spew 3b fold or 3b stack off with worse...rather often imo

Irl all the ppl saying they rse fold aq here just don't, less of crse they live on planet nit.

You seem to think that if they 3bet fold ever it's a profitable jam-agree.

You also state that if they never 3b fold we should fold-no.

Again, again, again- i believe not only do we have fold equity, but we are ahead of their range even if they never 3b fold.

So i jam/clicky type 16x it,for value when called and for exploitation reasons when they 3b fold.