Coffin spot in 530 wcoop

[Patonius2000]

I played this hand last sunday. Villain had been very tight thus far and is a decent sized winner on opr. I assume he's a good mtt reg, nothing redic but solid and capable. I haven't been opening/isoing like a maniac but I'm one of the more active players at the table. Obviously this is kinda a guessing spot, I'm just interested in what good mtt regs think of this in general since I'm not really up to date with all the latest crazes


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 530 Tournament, 40/80 Blinds (9 handed) - PokerStars Hand Converter from HandHistoryConverter.com

SB (t14405)
BB (t8233)
UTG (t16983)
UTG+1 (t11720)
MP1 (t9233)
Hero (MP2) (t9155)
MP3 (t9225)
CO (t10702)
Button (t8319)

Hero's M: 76.29

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K, K
1 fold, UTG+1 calls t80, 1 fold, Hero bets t320, MP3 raises to t800, 5 folds, Hero calls t480

Flop: (t1800) 4, Q, 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t1050, Hero calls t1050

Turn: (t3900) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t2200, Hero calls t2200

River: (t8300) J (2 players)
Hero checks, MP3 bets t5175 (All-In) Hero?

[Rupert]

Don't think there's any craze going on, he probably just has QQ+.  Not sure where we are meant to fold if at all though

[DMorgan]

Disclaimer: Not an MTT reg and haven't done any maths on this

First instinct is that it comes down to whether he has any Qx in his range pre. If he does then we're obv doing really well vs his value range and we can call down. If he doesn't 3bet any Qx pre then its just QQ and AA given that I think its pretty optimistic that he's gunna show up with airballs here from the preflop action and the board run.

Personally I wouldn't 3bet AQ pre in his spot when he can peel in position, keep the fish in the hand and stop you 4betting, especially when in the absence of any aggro dynamic he can reasonably expect your 4x range here over the UTG limper to be pretty strong.

Also potentially a factor is that its a $530 wcoop. Probably above his average buyin and could make it less likely that he's gunna spew off in this spot. Obviously you can't know that in game though.

By the river your hand looks so much like Qx and I don't think he's gunna try and barrell you (probably an unknown to a random MTT reg) off once you've called flop and turn. Like I said I'm not an MTT reg though, maybe everyone decent always fires the third barrel here these days, don't think its gunna work vs unknowns very often though in general.

[SuuPRlim]

Don't think there's any craze going on, he probably just has QQ+.  Not sure where we are meant to fold if at all though

If he DOESN'T 3b KQ/AQ then I think we should fold the turn, but I would pretty much never fold on the turn in game, and wouldn't blame rob for calling the river at all.

But it does seem like he can't have much of a value range wider than AA and kinda no bluffs either, except AK, maybe trying to get us off 77-JJ.

[pleno1]

dobut he's ever 3betting kq/aq as he wants fish to come along too, i guess fold turn is best but in game its a bit different.

[Pinchop73]

Please may I ask your reasoning for not 4b'ing pre?

Without us having a high fold to 3b%, I can't see a solid winning reg repping massive strength here with kitchens, with a view to folding to a 4b. Struggling to think of another reason why you'd want to flat in this spot.

If this was your read then I think we have to police him up post.

[SuuPRlim]

Please may I ask your reasoning for not 4b'ing pre?

Without us having a high fold to 3b%, I can't see a solid winning reg repping massive strength here with kitchens, with a view to folding to a 4b. Struggling to think of another reason why you'd want to flat in this spot.

If this was your read then I think we have to police him up post.

I imagine Rob DOESN'T have a light 4b / 4b fold range in this spot and as a result isn't going to have any 4bet range at all.

also the guy  has been tight, we're not expecting this to be a particually wide either, so if we 4bet we're going to have an extremely narrow perceived range, whereas flatting we have our entire opening range that doesn't want to fold (however that may be  perceived - possibly quite tight as well) - in essence we don't achieve anything with a 4bet except possibly just coolering him in a vacuum but he NEEDS to have QQ/JJ and stack off with them, which he prolly won't do.

[action man]

ugh, think im folding river if i get there, maybe hero fold the turn but its hard in game your hand pretty much face up as AQ/KQ/KK and maybe some QJ once you call the turn, so for him to 3 barrell bluff, he has to think you are capable of folding one of these hands, as you dont have much history with villain, id assume he wouldnt try this line so early. Its real tough to fold the turn, not sure i would in game time and also not sure its right, but i think river is a clear fold

[pleno1]

i think we can level people into thinking we're 4betting light after we have iso'd the raiser as we expect him to peeeeeeeeeel alot of hands to keep fish in. and its hard to have does aces.

[Boba Fett]

ugh, think im folding river if i get there, maybe hero fold the turn but its hard in game your hand pretty much face up as AQ/KQ/KK and maybe some QJ once you call the turn, so for him to 3 barrell bluff, he has to think you are capable of folding one of these hands, as you dont have much history with villain, id assume he wouldnt try this line so early. Its real tough to fold the turn, not sure i would in game time and also not sure its right, but i think river is a clear fold

This, just cant see a villain with the description you're giving him making a play like this with worse.  Blinds are small there's no antes and if he doesnt have history with you then its crazy for him to think he can barrell you off Qx/KK and just a crazy spot in general to barrell off the stack.

Can maybe hero fold the turn as we're not calling any river bet but I think he would give up on river with showdown value and check back everything up to AQ

[Rupert]

I think we look most like AQ and if we have KK in our range then we can have QQ and AA too.  I don't think he is trying to get us to fold AQ.

[SuuPRlim]

he probably just has QQ+.