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Poker Hand Analysis
1/2 Cash at the Vic
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Topic: 1/2 Cash at the Vic (Read 2247 times)
edgascoigne
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Newbury Racecourse's Best Dressed Gent. And What?
1/2 Cash at the Vic
«
on:
September 18, 2011, 08:53:42 AM »
I am playing c£500, image competent if a little overly aggro.
Preflop: Utg (c£300) opens to £8, serial caller (c£150) calls MP. We peel 8h9h in the cut off. Villain (£350) raises to £23 from the SB. Have played with him once before, c50yrs old Asian gentleman who seems to play very straight. All call.
Flop (£94): Ah9d7h
Villain leads £50, two quick calls and the pot is £224 when it comes to us. Villain has c£275 back, UTG raiser c£225, serial caller clearly committed.
We? Think its a fairly straightforward spot but would be interested to see other opinions.
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DMorgan
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Re: 1/2 Cash at the Vic
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Reply #1 on:
September 18, 2011, 09:33:48 AM »
This is far from straightforward imo, actually a really interesting hand.
I think we need more info on Villain though. Is he a big enough not for us to assume that range is AK, AQ(maybe) and AA therefore he's always calling a jam and the majority of the time we're always a small favourite because he can't have any semibluffs or bluffs only top pair/sets
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AlexMartin
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Re: 1/2 Cash at the Vic
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Reply #2 on:
September 18, 2011, 11:07:44 AM »
dont think its straightforward at all, its def one of the more complex spots iv seen live lately. Actually im pretty sure jam is by far and away gonna make the most money, just because we cant do anything else really, folding would be horrid given price/equity, calling would be pretty bad as i dont expect us to get any more good $ if we hit a heart and raising small would be bad because we are clearly pc if we put any more money in+ jam is better for all our 2pairs/sets.
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edgascoigne
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Newbury Racecourse's Best Dressed Gent. And What?
Re: 1/2 Cash at the Vic
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Reply #3 on:
September 18, 2011, 11:32:21 AM »
Likely range when he leads is, imo, perhaps even as narrow as AK and AQ. Small chance of KK/QQ he's looking to fire once and get through given his hand looks a lot like the former?
For me I ruled out sets as I think he peels 99 (to which we have a blocker anyway) and 77. Aces are possible, until he gets called in two spots which imo suggests at least one of these two has an ace, making it pretty cold for villain to have thr remaining two.
If we call and hit a heart I'd be surprised if any more money makes its way into the pot.
Never folding.
If we stick it in his eye the only hands he is likely to call with imo are Aces (which I ruled unlikely) and AK. I actually thought given the strength of my play AK might require a little extended thought on his part?
Also we're over 50% against any big ace hand if called...
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cambridgealex
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Re: 1/2 Cash at the Vic
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Reply #4 on:
September 18, 2011, 01:26:58 PM »
I'd happily shove here
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GreekStein
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Re: 1/2 Cash at the Vic
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Reply #5 on:
September 18, 2011, 01:30:01 PM »
Quote from: cambridgealex on September 18, 2011, 01:26:58 PM
I'd happily shove here
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Skippy
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Re: 1/2 Cash at the Vic
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Reply #6 on:
September 18, 2011, 01:53:02 PM »
Quote from: edgascoigne on September 18, 2011, 11:32:21 AM
Likely range when he leads is, imo, perhaps even as narrow as AK and AQ. Small chance of KK/QQ he's looking to fire once and get through given his hand looks a lot like the former?
For me I ruled out sets as I think he peels 99 (to which we have a blocker anyway) and 77. Aces are possible, until he gets called in two spots which imo suggests at least one of these two has an ace, making it pretty cold for villain to have thr remaining two.
If we call and hit a heart I'd be surprised if any more money makes its way into the pot.
Never folding.
If we stick it in his eye the only hands he is likely to call with imo are Aces (which I ruled unlikely) and AK. I actually thought given the strength of my play AK might require a little extended thought on his part?
Also we're over 50% against any big ace hand if called...
Well if you are not folding, then you have to go all in.
You seem to be focussing on what the original raiser has. What do you think the two dudes that have called between the SB and you have got? If you are up against bigger hearts, two pairs or a set in either spot, then you are drawing pretty thin. The SB has definitely got a better made hand than you currently.
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SuuPRlim
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Re: 1/2 Cash at the Vic
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Reply #7 on:
September 18, 2011, 05:16:58 PM »
the reason I think the spot is far more complex than first look is because of the two over callers and their stack sizes, the deeper they are than the more money I think a jam makes because they are likely to fold out hands with mutual equity ( J9/9T/hh combos' etc) but the first caller is always calling regardless of the action and a reasonable chunk of the second callers range will prolly find himself "priced in" to a call also, given that his range is prolly more draw weighted than 1p weighted i'd say, and his stack is the next covering stack to ours.
So it's pretty dam plausible that we're getting this is 3-4 way with pretty poor equity.
having considered all this I'm merrily jamming as there isn;'t any other option, I couldn't ever bring myself to fold and calling horrible. AND lets not also forget this is live poker, where we could well be getting it in vs AQ, K7 and 35 of hearts lol
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edgascoigne
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Newbury Racecourse's Best Dressed Gent. And What?
Re: 1/2 Cash at the Vic
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Reply #8 on:
September 18, 2011, 05:35:26 PM »
I wouldn't say that I was fistpumping as I put them in, but I was pretty happy about it. My level of analysis as an occasional player is miles below that many within this thread have contributed, but essentially my thoughts before sticking them over the line went....
Man who led almost certainly has a big ace. Man who called (original raiser pre) has Ax or big heart combo. 2nd caller of the 23 has almost literally anything (no disrespect meant but he was an Italian fish).
I didn't expect the jam to get through everyone, but there was c£225 in pot as it comes to me. The jam is £275 for the 3bettor to call, whilst it would be £225 for the OR. Italian not folding.whatever.
Sets would obv not fold (i can still get there), big aces shouldn't but might (and if called I am a fav). Against two big hearts I'm in good shape if they want to gamble. Two small hearts obv I have the nuts.
This was why I felt relatively 'straightforward' but wanted other opinions. Essentially I'm neither (a) experienced enough to.amalyse the situation properly, (b) ever passing such w beautiful hand in game.
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SuuPRlim
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Re: 1/2 Cash at the Vic
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Reply #9 on:
September 18, 2011, 05:45:18 PM »
Quote from: edgascoigne on September 18, 2011, 05:35:26 PM
(b) ever passing such w beautiful hand in game.
this would be very much in my head as well tbh
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piestack
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Re: 1/2 Cash at the Vic
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Reply #10 on:
September 18, 2011, 08:46:51 PM »
Quote from: edgascoigne on September 18, 2011, 05:35:26 PM
I wouldn't say that I was fistpumping as I put them in, but I was pretty happy about it. My level of analysis as an occasional player is miles below that many within this thread have contributed, but essentially my thoughts before sticking them over the line went....
Man who led almost certainly has a big ace. Man who called (original raiser pre) has Ax or big heart combo. 2nd caller of the 23 has almost literally anything (no disrespect meant but he was an Italian fish).
I didn't expect the jam to get through everyone, but there was c£225 in pot as it comes to me. The jam is £275 for the 3bettor to call, whilst it would be £225 for the OR. Italian not folding.whatever.
Sets would obv not fold (i can still get there), big aces shouldn't but might (and if called I am a fav). Against two big hearts I'm in good shape if they want to gamble. Two small hearts obv I have the nuts.
This was why I felt relatively 'straightforward' but wanted other opinions. Essentially I'm neither (a) experienced enough to.amalyse the situation properly, (b) ever passing such w beautiful hand in game.
the only thing i would question about your thinking is that you aren't going to be up against just one hand all that often, and when your up against a better made hand and a higher flush draw then youre in real trouble. doubt it happens often enough live though so yeah, jam.
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