Diary of a professional punter

[redarmi]

£20 Lay Mumbai @ 1.79.  Butler and Kieswetter definitely have the ability to turn this around quickly.

[Biddy 62]

Hard lines Kaldoun Kingdom 2nd @ 16s . How do you make your selections? Form?? Jockey booking? Trainer recent form?

[redarmi]

is it more difficult to find value with the likes of betfair creating almost "perfect markets" on premier league football etc?

It is a great question.  You don't get as many markets that are obviously wrong as you did when i first started as a bookie 14 years ago.  In those days you would often see things like Man Utd being the same price to win a Carling Cup tie as they would be in the same game in the league.  I remember when Stan james first started betting on corners in live football matches they would just take the mid point of the spread with Sporting Index and bet 10/11 each of two when the correct price is more like 4/6, 11/10 and I bet under in literally every game for about 18 months for £200 before they figured it out and i know i wasn't alone.  Nowadays if I make a premier league football match more than 15% value I go back and double and triple check my price because it normally means i have missed something.  The flip side of course is that there are more markets, bookies and liquidity since Betfair and the Asian bookies are available to everyone.  By the end of today i will have had something in the region of 15-20 bets and that is a quiet Saturday.  Ten years ago without Betfair that would have been maybe a third of that.  None of the bets on the cricket would have been possible for example.  

[redarmi]

Hard lines Kaldoun Kingdom 2nd @ 16s . How do you make your selections? Form?? Jockey booking? Trainer recent form?

I get three or four decent cards from winning punters and then I do a tissue (betting forecast) on races that look to have decent shape or where I have an interest in a horse myself.  I also take a lot of low hanging fruit like betting in bad ew races with bookies too where I can.

[Chompy]

Thoughts on Betfair?

[sovietsong]

is it more difficult to find value with the likes of betfair creating almost "perfect markets" on premier league football etc?

It is a great question.  You don't get as many markets that are obviously wrong as you did when i first started as a bookie 14 years ago.  In those days you would often see things like Man Utd being the same price to win a Carling Cup tie as they would be in the same game in the league.  I remember when Stan james first started betting on corners in live football matches they would just take the mid point of the spread with Sporting Index and bet 10/11 each of two when the correct price is more like 4/6, 11/10 and I bet under in literally every game for about 18 months for £200 before they figured it out and i know i wasn't alone.  Nowadays if I make a premier league football match more than 15% value I go back and double and triple check my price because it normally means i have missed something.  The flip side of course is that there are more markets, bookies and liquidity since Betfair and the Asian bookies are available to everyone.  By the end of today i will have had something in the region of 15-20 bets and that is a quiet Saturday.  Ten years ago without Betfair that would have been maybe a third of that.  None of the bets on the cricket would have been possible for example.  

great response, looking forward to keeping up with this diary!

[redarmi]

Thoughts on Betfair?

Probably similar to yours with the exception that I still use them because a) I have significant losses on my current account and it would take a few years before i was paying premium charge at my current win rate and b) my style of betting means I am not that likely to ever be paying it.  For those purely selfish reasons I still use it and probably will continue to whilst there is the requisite liquidity there.  I am also at a slight disadvantage in that I had burnt a lot of bookies account prior to the arrival of Betfair so I can't just switch to bookies easily.  All that said it never ceases to amaze me how the Betfair management have managed to take a truly amazing, game changing business that was only half way to its potential and completely ruin it.

[redarmi]

£15 Leeds @ 2.32 to win RL Grand Final. - Leeds have momentum and Saints have a lot of injuries now and short on bench.

[redarmi]

Thats probably it for today.  Turnover of £238 and a loss of £61.55. Bankroll = £938.45  Fairly standard stuff really.  I have still got one eye on the college football where I like Virginia Tech but I really want -7 or at least 2.14 -7.5 so there may be another bet but more likely i will take a couple of hours off and watch the Kell Brook fight and then the college football before doing a bit more work on tomorrows events.  May post some bets for tomorrow later.

[Acidmouse]

£15 Leeds @ 2.32 to win RL Grand Final. - Leeds have momentum and Saints have a lot of injuries now and short on bench.

nice call also the biggest factor is the Saints just cant beat us

[redarmi]

Early bet for the final of the Champions League trophy.

£25 Bangalore @ 4/5 VC/Fred

As I suggested earlier in thread to Dubai i expected this to be priced in the region of Bangalore 1/2 and was interested in backing Mumbai.  I thought a fair price for the game was 4/6 Bangalore 6/4 Mumbai possibly 8/11, 11/8 so am amazed to see 4/5 available about Bangalore.  The two teams met on this pitch in the IPL and Bangalore won by 43 runs and the top of their order is top class in Gayle, Kohli and Dilshan.  Bangalore were massively impressive in their last two games chasing down 200+ totals but it was on an easier pitch than this and they didn't face anyone like Malinga in those games but unlike Somerset all of these batsman have faced him before and whilst Gayle does have the ability to throw his wicket away sometimes I am willing to take the risk at this price.  Another bet which I can't get on as 365 don't entertain me but which looks superb value is 10/11 Bangalore to have more sixes in the game.  In the IPL game between the two they got eight against four for Mumbai and Gayle or kohli could legitimately win that bet on their own.  Ladbrokes are 8/13 and that looks about right.

[redarmi]

£30 6.5 pt teaser KC +7.5, Jax +7.5 5/6

Teasers are avilable with most of the US sportsbooks (I did this with Olympic/Thegreek) and are mathematically profitable if going through two key numbers.  I especially like this as both games have low totals.  You used to be able to get 10/11 or even evens on these bets with some books but the reduction in books in that market have affected that a bit which is a shame as it is the smart and clever ones like Olympic and Pinnacle that are left.

£22 under 39 KC@Indy @ 10/11 Tote

Was going to wait on most of my game bets but this looks to be moving downwards so grabbed it now.

[redarmi]

£10 Argentina +28 Evens Hills/Ladbrokes

Been mulling this bet for ages largely because as I alluded to yesterday I am not much of a RU judge but looking through the results in the games so far I just don't understand how NZ are 28 point faves.  I could understand a handicap of 20 or so but the Argies have played England and Scotland and only conceded one try in both games.  Now admittedly neither of these teams are that good but New Zealand haven't exactly murdered the better teams they have played and have conceded 10 or more points in every game they have played.  Also it is a fairly obvious game for 'public' money.  Would probably have more if I had much confidence or was backed up by a good judge but I seem to be alone.

[redarmi]

£10 Kobayashi to finish top 6 Japanese GP @ 9/2
£5 Kobayashi to finish on podium @ 150/1

Really struggling with exactly this grand prix is going to pan out but positions 6-10 on the grid are going to have an advantage with tyres but they are just a long way behind.  I see Hamilton making a move from the start here but fancy Kobayashi to go well on fresh tyres and maybe one less stop at his home GP.  Tough one though.  Certainly don't love my position on Vettel anymore despite pole.

[millidonk]

Yikes. When do you sleep? 3-6??