Diary of a professional punter

[redarmi]

In what sense?  In terms of a potentially profitable pursuit i think it has a lot of potential.  I do some bits and pieces and it has been pretty much break even but it is massively high variance.  In terms of myself I have taken staking occasionally when I have taken shots in terms of my poker bankroll and I think it is useful and if I was going to pursue playing more myself i would consider being backed but I think you need to be a bit more committed than I am to do justice to backers.

[Horneris]

Fantastic punt, great £750 pick up for you

[redarmi]

The loss of Julius Peppers is massive for Bears D.  Fancy Detroit a bit here now but think i will wait for a line.  Detroit -3 would be a bet at the moment.

[redarmi]

I pass at -6 2.10 especially with Peppers back.

[pleno1]

do you change at all (pychologically) when you are playing backed rather than on your own money? Also how does things change in regards to tilt after running bad on somebody elses money

[Rod]

Just caught up on this and certainly enjoyed it.

I am trying a very small stakes bit of betting on Betfair myself (and losing *lol*) so find the bets you have and the way you pick them very interesting. An impressive amount of knowledge needed to be successful at this.

[redarmi]

do you change at all (pychologically) when you are playing backed rather than on your own money? Also how does things change in regards to tilt after running bad on somebody elses money

I haven't played backed enough to really comment but i think there is more pressure.  When I have done work for betting syndicates and private punters i certainly work harder and take on less risk and can see how this would be the same with poker.  I would be less likely to reshove with K6 or something if I was backed which is probably a negative.  That would probably change if I was backed on a regular basis though and had results.

[hugob055]

Finding it hard to believe your a pro gambler but good look trying

[kukushkin88]

Finding it hard to believe your a pro gambler but good look trying

Pretty poorly thought out (and spelt) statement. What is it that you find hard to believe?

He´s clearly a very bright guy and sounds like a really decent guy from his posts as well. Better to just be grateful for the insight and opprtunity to learn. He bets in an almost identical fashion (as you´d expect) to The Camel and there was no reason to doubt his credentials.

[millidonk]

Finding it hard to believe your a pro gambler but good look trying

I don't get the point in statements like this? unless you two are mates and it is banter?

[redarmi]

Very speculative 4 e/w Fine kingdom  betfair sp 200 Newc

[Simon Galloway]

I've had an equally speculative (but less potential reward) stab at Vamoose.  Obv a redic race to punt properly.

[redarmi]

Finding it hard to believe your a pro gambler but good look trying

Everyone is entitled to their opinion.  I suppose the proof will be in the pudding.

£30 Dancing Maite @ 7/1 400 Newcastle

The ground is pretty much bottomless so it is a bit of a lottery but this horse seems suited by soft ground with form figures of 4413 on G/s or worse and sometimes seems a bit tapped for toe against better rivals which the ground may help with.  Pretty gutted that two have come out of this as 16 runner hcaps are obviously optimal e/w material but will have to go win only now.  I also quite fancy the rag of the lot Foreign Rhythm but want to do a bit more work on that one and should get a better price on the exchanges closer to the race anyway.

[adnmdv]

How do you work out your stakes? Kelly Criterion?

[redarmi]

I use Kelly but I have a factor based upon how confident I am on my pricing in a sport/league.  The sports/leagues I am most confident on I bet half kelly down to a fifth of Kelly on some sports but with the proviso that I don't bet more than 5% of bank.  I also tend to round down and, if I am honest, I guess a bit on some sports too.  A good example would be the horses today.  I honestly expected Fine Kingdom to be a 20-1 shot.  If I bet half Kelly I should be having 5.875% of my bank on that at 66/1 well I would not be even close to comfortable with that and frankly even the 2.35% of bank at 66/1 which i should bet at a fifth Kelly seems pretty stupid so I ended up having 0.4% of bank e/w which is probably not enough but was within my comfort level.  I have had close to maximum bets at very big prices in the past but I would have to be very sure of my price.  The 400 at Newcastle I am much more confident of my price in (as I should be in a hcap over a maiden I suppose) and am happy to be betting somewhere in the region of a third of Kelly.  I know my approach isn't ideal for the maths purists but it tends to work for me.