Diary of a professional punter

[Chompy]

Some Spotlighters are better at forecasts than others, while some are better tipsters than others. I am a tez tipster these days coz of years of focussing on in-running but don't make many mistakes with the forecasts imo.

As for the pick of the spotters, Adrian Cook knows the game inside out, likewise Richard Austen and Em is just a legend. Not sure the rest of the team is as strong as it was ten years ago. Richard Young is shyte obv!

Matt is a top man although lost touch with him since he left the paper. Had his own opinions and wrote them in his own way. That's always good. He killed it IR in the early days but then struggled a bit. It had picked up last I heard but guess he'll be part of the 50% club, so dunno now.

[redarmi]

Laid Hamilton to lose £15 @ 2.50 Betfair

One area where you can sometimes get an edge is in watching interviews and reading body language and, whilst I am no expert, Lewis hamilton really looked to me in his interview after final qualifying today like he didn't believe he could win.  I have no idea whatn is going on with him in his private life but he is just a completely different driver these days.  I know the season is over effectively but getting on pole should be a reaosn to be happy.  He looked like he wanted to go home.

[kukushkin88]

How would you price up a British general election? Awkward one for me, David Milliband would be 3/5.

[redsimon]

How would you price up a British general election? Awkward one for me, David Milliband would be 3/5.

??

[kukushkin88]

How would you price up a British general election? Awkward one for me, David Milliband would be 3/5.

??

If he had wone the labour leadership. Ed would be approx 4/5.

[redarmi]

I think it is about right to be honest.  Most seats  I would be 8/11 11/8 Tories favourite.  Ed looks like an interim to me and in the long run this might still work out as best thing for David.  Also think that Libs will be decimated and that might benefit the Tories especially in the South West.  All that said it is all about polls and I would have to look closely which I haven't to be certain of a price but realistically anything could happen.

[redarmi]

£10 Tony Bellew @ 2.94 in running.

[lvlarc_uk]

Laid Hamilton to lose £15 @ 2.50 Betfair

One area where you can sometimes get an edge is in watching interviews and reading body language and, whilst I am no expert, Lewis hamilton really looked to me in his interview after final qualifying today like he didn't believe he could win.  I have no idea whatn is going on with him in his private life but he is just a completely different driver these days.  I know the season is over effectively but getting on pole should be a reaosn to be happy.  He looked like he wanted to go home.

I took an opposite view from that. Infact I've never seen Hamilton seem so focused during a race weekend. He avoided a few interviews in the practice sessions and he was silent on radio after topping qualifying....never seen that before. I think we are seeing him come through the toughest times of his career, he's rid some demons and found his old form.

Also, noticed you backed Button before qualifying, to win the race. I've done the same a few times this season, only to find his odds increase come race time. As Button hasn't claimed pole since Monaco 09, this happens alot....

Do you use f1's live timing? Great tool when betting in play on betfair, even moreso with the asian gp's as the TV coverage tends to be delayed enough to find good value in the fastest lap and finishing markets.

[redarmi]

I think Buttons price normally lengthens because he has been a bad qualifier and I expected a bit better today with the McClarens showing more in Singapore and  Vettel possibly easing off.  I am not that disappointed to be honest and he is shorter now and has a cracking chance imo.  Interested in your views on Hamilton.  I only saw a bit of the highlights of qualifying to be honest but the interview just really struck me.  I also think he is struggling preserving his tyres which makes the pole worth less.  I was actually considering a couple of dual forecasts....Button/Alonso at 40/1 with Skybet is decent value I thought.

[lvlarc_uk]

Ye Button has been great this season with managing his tyres. Last week Hamilton pitted early as they thought he had picked up a puncture but it was just bad tyre degradation.  40/1 is a great price, fancy a Hamilton/Button 1-2 myself, also maybe laying Vettle for podium at 1.4...as Redbulls used up an extra set of softs in qualifying they're trying a different strategy, could screw them in the final laps with everyone else on the faster tyre. The 2nd half of this season has been quality.

[redarmi]

This is a bit dirty because of the time of night but managed to get:

£18 @ 5/6 Chad Dawson to beat Bernard Hopkins

[redarmi]

Quite honestly the weirdest, luckiest win of my life.........no idea how that was declared a TKO but i will take it.   Serves Hopkins right though.  Has been doing shit like this for years.

[redarmi]

Finding it really tough to find any bets today.  Kinda like Spurs but just not sure what the best value angle is.  Trying to get some inspiration by reading some old @thebig_sam tweets.  Now i can't do any research for the tears in my eyes.

[redarmi]

Feeling very unethusiastic about this bet but had £10 Spurs @ 6/4.

[redarmi]

NFL

£15 SF +4 1.98
£10 Jax +12.5 1.952