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redarmi
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« Reply #300 on: October 16, 2011, 05:11:40 PM » |
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Tom Lewis - 3 shots clear and about to win the Portugal Open. Did I have the best value loser ever when I backed him at 500/1 for British Open......
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TheDazzler
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« Reply #301 on: October 16, 2011, 05:12:42 PM » |
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Feeling very unethusiastic about this bet but had £10 Spurs @ 6/4.
I was going to say it's looking good for you with Spurs one up at half time but Newcastle just equalised. Why, if you're feeling unenthusiastic, did you do the bet? Did you just feel Spurs should be 11/8 or slightly better? |
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Chompy
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« Reply #302 on: October 16, 2011, 05:13:50 PM » |
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Tom Lewis - 3 shots clear and about to win the Portugal Open. Did I have the best value loser ever when I backed him at 500/1 for British Open......
Me and Tom Lewis share a coach. Obv I'm the better prospect. |
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
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redarmi
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« Reply #303 on: October 16, 2011, 05:17:39 PM » |
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Feeling very unethusiastic about this bet but had £10 Spurs @ 6/4.
I was going to say it's looking good for you with Spurs one up at half time but Newcastle just equalised. Why, if you're feeling unenthusiastic, did you do the bet? Did you just feel Spurs should be 11/8 or slightly better? Yeah basically. The bet I really wanted was something good value on Spurs to hammer (ie spurs -2.5 goals) them but I just couldn't find anything that looked priced wrong. I'm a Boro fan too so it tilts me a bit to oppose Newcastle and not win my bet. Still think Spuds will win so might have got lucky with my bet in end. |
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redarmi
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« Reply #304 on: October 16, 2011, 05:26:36 PM » |
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On a strict value criteria I think Cleveland +7 5/6 or so is really good value but one angle I always really like (and I will warn you this is a bit sick) is to bet on teams/players after someone important has died recently because the emotional motivation factor is just so strong. This is the Raiders first home game since Al Davis died and I was kicking myself for not backing them last week. Think I just leave this one.
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Alverton
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« Reply #305 on: October 16, 2011, 05:48:03 PM » |
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Tom Lewis - 3 shots clear and about to win the Portugal Open. Did I have the best value loser ever when I backed him at 500/1 for British Open......
Couldn't remember who mentioned Tom Lewis at the Open here on Blonde, I had a good bet on him for top amateur then. Have been interested/following him ever since. Very impressed so far but thought a breakthrough win would be next season. I did have a cheeky bet on him yesterday @ 30/1. Much appreciated for the info back in July. |
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TheDazzler
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« Reply #306 on: October 16, 2011, 08:49:55 PM » |
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What are you thoughts on the rugby? Fair play Sporting Bet going best price both @ 1/7 & 7/1, though obviously they are shortest on the draw.
Obviously NZ are huge, huge favs but is there value @ 7/1 France? How would you price it?
And the 3rd place playoff, do you think Wales could be value @ 13/8 with VC? 3rd place matches are nothing type games but I think Wales will be motivated to finish on a high and Oz may already have switched off.
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redarmi
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« Reply #307 on: October 16, 2011, 09:53:04 PM » |
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To be honest I have only watched one game and that was through insomnia rather than desire. I had a bet on a handful of games but that was just down to knowing a good judge and I didn't even bother to watch them. I haven't looked at the market but I would guess at something like NZ -14 but it would be a guess. On the third place game irrespective of the sport it is all about motivation that one. Probably worth watching interviews/videos to get an idea.
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mondatoo
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« Reply #308 on: October 16, 2011, 10:29:04 PM » |
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How early do you do ante post bets, for example Cheltenham Festival, I know BH likes an early flutter ( send me tips plz), I intend to go in hard on Cheltenham next year so any tips would be appreciated. It wouldn't sound a lot to you but it is to me Dad, but we put a fiver away every week for Cheltenham since the last festival so we have around £250 each and I fancy having a few shots separately before it starts but I've basically no idea, thanks.
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redarmi
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« Reply #309 on: October 16, 2011, 10:51:58 PM » |
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It takes a lot to persuade me to have an ante post bet to be honest. I tend to do a fair bit a week or so before Cheltenham but like any real punter I am a mug for that four days and I can't help having a bet on every race. It is the best four days of the year. I also love the Open weekend coming up in a couple of weeks. There is just something about the jumpers and Cheltenham in particular. You have me really quite excited and with that feeling in my stomach just thinking about it. I have heard about people saying Vegas is like Disneyland for adults but whilst it can be fun i don't really see it. Cheltenham for four days in March has everything a right thinking man could want.
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redarmi
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« Reply #310 on: October 17, 2011, 02:58:26 AM » |
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£20  points under 19.5 1.943 Bears/Vikes |
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redarmi
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« Reply #311 on: October 17, 2011, 11:33:59 AM » |
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£15 Rio Rossanna 540 Ponte @ 13/2
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redarmi
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« Reply #312 on: October 17, 2011, 12:09:12 PM » |
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£25 England 3.2.
This is almost certainly going to be a position i trade out of. Hopefully profitably
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redarmi
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« Reply #313 on: October 17, 2011, 12:40:08 PM » |
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Lay £25 England @ 2.50
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redarmi
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« Reply #314 on: October 17, 2011, 04:05:37 PM » |
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Since last bankroll update have lost £27.86 pending Rio and England backs and lays today. So bankroll = £890.78
Going through my accounts it is amazing just how important it is to be on top of the market and getting the best prices. I have backed two horses (Cheylesmore and Dancing rain) where a better reading of the market could have easily £100+ in my bankroll. It is not that often I get it wrong and variance comes into it massively too ie. I wouldn't be beating myself up about reading the market if Captain Americo had won when I got 10-1 and it went off 7/2 for example but it is definitely something where the payoff is immediate. So many punters walk into a Ladbrokes and take 3/1 about a horse that might be available at 7/2 in Corals over the road. If you do that 100 times in a year and are having a £10 on it is costing you over £100 a year.
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