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Nico29
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« Reply #360 on: October 22, 2011, 12:11:28 PM » |
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£25 Rumble of Thunder 225 Doncaster
225 Aintree ^^^ |
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redarmi
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« Reply #361 on: October 22, 2011, 12:15:54 PM » |
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Yep - thanks. have donny on my mind for some reason.
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ForthThistle
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« Reply #362 on: October 22, 2011, 12:22:55 PM » |
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Camelot now 5/6 in Ladbrokes. Due to a Non Runner
On for 1 hunder.
Lets GOGOGO
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APAT NLHE Southern European Champion 2010
Take on Tikay February League Winner 2011
Rastafish throws himself headfirst into the railbirds, arms outstretched but the sea of bodies parts and Rastafish misses and crashes through the barrier on all fours.
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outragous76
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« Reply #363 on: October 22, 2011, 12:29:25 PM » |
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Thoughts on red cards in the manchester derby?
Price on 2?
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".....and then I spent 2 hours talking with Stu which blew my mind.........."
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Girgy85
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« Reply #364 on: October 22, 2011, 12:32:43 PM » |
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Camelot now 5/6 in Ladbrokes. Due to a Non Runner
On for 1 hunder.
Lets GOGOGO
5/4 WH's |
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Best poster Girgy IMO - Mantis
Girgy is my new hero! - Evilpie
Think Girgy has shown the best leopard instincts in this thread and would prob survive best in the wild. Eye of the tiger that fella - Mantis
Girgy is a m'fkn machine - Daveshoelace
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redarmi
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« Reply #365 on: October 22, 2011, 12:51:19 PM » |
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Thoughts on red cards in the manchester derby?
Price on 2?
Betting on bookings and cards is a very specialised area and really needs good knowledge of referees stats along with the teams etc. I would guess the price of a single red in this game would be about 4/1 and obviously if one comes then another is more likely so maybe 5/2 for the second. 5*3.5= 17.5 so about a 16/1 shot but I wouldn't be that confident tbh. |
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redarmi
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« Reply #366 on: October 22, 2011, 01:07:54 PM » |
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Noticed you seem to have a lot of AH/OU bets on matchday...do you reckon you're EV+ backing on the morning of games? From my understanding Benham/Bloom start piling on their bets on the morning of the day -> prices should be more efficient and less beatable.
Good question/point. The Asian market as a whole is a lot more efficient now than it ever has been but the reason that it can still support people winnign as big and Tony and Matt is that there is still a huge amount of public money which doesn't materialise until gameday either. I am willing to go against their moves especially later in the day because my observation is that the market overreacts to their bets (Tony's in particular). I do know of a punter/bookmaker (well known at Sheffield dogs if that helps anyone!) that for a while was betting against every one of TB's bets (after they had moved obv) and making a very small profit on turnover. I haven't spoken to either of Bloom or Benham personally for a while but I would be very surprised if either of them are making more than 4-5% on turnover these days. It is a very low margin game and they are very good at it but I think I have a very good opinion and I have access to some excellent modelling too. My results on my bets on gameday are obviously worse than those placed earlier in the week but there isn't much is only a couple of percentage points in it. Football isn't as profitable as other sports for me now in margin terms but the offset of that is that it is easy to get on especially in Asia for the sort of size I need. The other obvious point is that I am a bit indecisive and take time over my selections. i am still trying to figure out whether i want to back Swansea and the game started twenty minutes ago. |
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redarmi
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« Reply #367 on: October 22, 2011, 01:09:16 PM » |
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i am still trying to figure out whether i want to back Swansea and the game started twenty minutes ago.
Looks like I need to work on that indecision......FFS |
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ACE2M
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« Reply #368 on: October 22, 2011, 01:13:27 PM » |
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Vilas Boas is 8/1 PFA Manager of Year at Stanjames
Seems a pretty good way to get 8/1 about a 3/1 shot imo.
i didnt post for fun, whats ur opinion? lawl knob too much wine...... |
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redarmi
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« Reply #369 on: October 22, 2011, 01:18:04 PM » |
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£20 Livingston @ 11/10
This is only available on coupons now by the looks of things which is how I got it.
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redarmi
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« Reply #370 on: October 22, 2011, 02:02:28 PM » |
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Having a bit of a nightmare day today. Can't get into my email or msn which is where I get a lot of my info and ratings etc sent to and I couldn't get a copy of the Racing Post. It is amazing just how much info I rely on on a daily basis.
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scotty2hatty
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« Reply #371 on: October 22, 2011, 02:02:42 PM » |
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Vilas Boas is 8/1 PFA Manager of Year at Stanjames
Seems a pretty good way to get 8/1 about a 3/1 shot imo.
i didnt post for fun, whats ur opinion? lawl knob too much wine...... haha, yeah I figured by the time of the post, happens |
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redarmi
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« Reply #372 on: October 22, 2011, 02:06:48 PM » |
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There is a 15yo kid playing for Derby today. How good must he be?
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typhoon13
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« Reply #373 on: October 22, 2011, 02:33:18 PM » |
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Good call on Rumble
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typhoon13
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« Reply #374 on: October 22, 2011, 02:34:39 PM » |
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lets see if Camelot makes the nice double also, gl us
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