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Author Topic: Diary of a professional punter  (Read 140181 times)
typhoon13
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« Reply #390 on: October 22, 2011, 04:37:48 PM »

Thanks but running pretty good to be fair at the moment with racing in particular although football has been pretty ugly recently.

Yeah i have been running lousy on the football also, struggling to weigh things up at the mo.
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redarmi
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« Reply #391 on: October 22, 2011, 04:55:58 PM »

Chicago Bears made a mistake in only arriving yesterday iyo?

Interesting one.  The logic is that there are too many distractions for the team if they are here all week and I can understand that and I think that game time means it shouldn't be a massive issue but I think I prefer the TB approach.  I also think that passing teams have an advantage as i am not convinced that the Wembley turf really suits teams with a good running game so think the Bucs have a bit of an advantage there too but line has moved the other way a bit so will probably wait.
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redarmi
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« Reply #392 on: October 22, 2011, 05:14:46 PM »

Was considering backing Soton to beat Reading.  Certainly can't see them losing but switched it on and saw Peter Beagrie doing the punditry.  Can't stand the man for what he did to Boro when we really needed him and have literally never won a bet on any game where his weasly little face has been present so am going to leave it.  Illogical I know.  Was fairly marginal tbh but the +EV given away is worth it for Beagrie not to put me on lifetilt.
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #393 on: October 22, 2011, 05:17:08 PM »

Chicago Bears made a mistake in only arriving yesterday iyo?

Interesting one.  The logic is that there are too many distractions for the team if they are here all week and I can understand that and I think that game time means it shouldn't be a massive issue but I think I prefer the TB approach.  I also think that passing teams have an advantage as i am not convinced that the Wembley turf really suits teams with a good running game so think the Bucs have a bit of an advantage there too but line has moved the other way a bit so will probably wait.

Any chance this is related to UK based Bears fans wanting to have a punt? Probably the 3rd most popular NFL team in the UK in my experience. I´m not really sure whether the volumes would be big enough to move the line but it might be a factor. I´m certainly wanting to be with Tampa as things stand.
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redarmi
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« Reply #394 on: October 22, 2011, 05:24:06 PM »

They will certainly have the bigger support and the anti-Glazer sentiment might mean it is bigger than you would expect.  I would think those supporting the Bears would outnumber those supporting the Bucs two or three to one but the couple of times I have been to these games there are shirts from literally every team in the NFL and home advantage tends to be down to noise and inability to hear playcalling etc in the NFL and i doubt it will be that big an effect.  In terms of money bets from Bears fans in UK will be negligible imo.  Out of interest who would you say are the two teams better supported in UK?
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kukushkin88
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« Reply #395 on: October 22, 2011, 05:39:30 PM »

49ers far and away first and Cowboys second. This is one of those things where I´d be totally confident of my assessment until a spot like this where I´m forced to think about what Í´ve based my judgement on. I can´t come up with anything substantial and yet I´d still be surprised if I´m wrong :-).
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redarmi
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« Reply #396 on: October 22, 2011, 05:44:25 PM »

Interesting.  If I had to guess I would have said Bears and Dolphins were top two but like you I have nothing to base it on.  Think it is something to do with who were decent when NFL first started showing on Ch4.  The Fridge, Dan Marino etc.  Suppose that was the 49ers era of Rice and Steve Young/Montana too.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2011, 05:47:09 PM by redarmi » Logged

redarmi
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« Reply #397 on: October 22, 2011, 08:11:23 PM »

Since last bankroll update winning £246.42 so bankroll stands at £1137.20.  Nice to be in front on the diary although to be honest the swings have been fairly standard. 
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redarmi
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« Reply #398 on: October 22, 2011, 08:47:19 PM »

Bit more on the accounts side.  Turnover of £1995 and profit of £137.20 which is a return of 6.8%.  Within what i would expect over 100ish bets really.  feel as though i have been a bit lazy this week so could potentially have made a bit more but in terms of percentages I am fairly happy with that kind of return.  Normally racing returns a bit more in terms of ROI but sport I am more confident of my prices in if that makes sense.  It is very rare that I price a horse at 3/1 and it is priced up at 10/1 and I "know" my price is correct.  In sport I often am very confident of my price.  i suppose it is because the form is out there in the sports.  On that note:

£10 Jason Booth to beat Scott Quigg @ 4.6 Betfair

My price was 4/11, 3/1 with the draw at 50/1.  Quigg looks to be the real deal but Booth is a proper fighter and has been in with some very tough cookies.
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redarmi
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« Reply #399 on: October 22, 2011, 09:36:46 PM »


£10 Jason Booth to beat Scott Quigg @ 4.6 Betfair

My price was 4/11, 3/1 with the draw at 50/1.  Quigg looks to be the real deal but Booth is a proper fighter and has been in with some very tough cookies.

Scott Quigg has been very impressive tonight.  Could be very good in a decent division.
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typhoon13
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« Reply #400 on: October 23, 2011, 08:33:25 AM »

Bit more on the accounts side.  Turnover of £1995 and profit of £137.20 which is a return of 6.8%.  Within what i would expect over 100ish bets really.  feel as though i have been a bit lazy this week so could potentially have made a bit more but in terms of percentages I am fairly happy with that kind of return.  Normally racing returns a bit more in terms of ROI but sport I am more confident of my prices in if that makes sense.  It is very rare that I price a horse at 3/1 and it is priced up at 10/1 and I "know" my price is correct.  In sport I often am very confident of my price.  i suppose it is because the form is out there in the sports.  On that note:

£10 Jason Booth to beat Scott Quigg @ 4.6 Betfair

My price was 4/11, 3/1 with the draw at 50/1.  Quigg looks to be the real deal but Booth is a proper fighter and has been in with some very tough cookies.


Another 6.8% this week please Red
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Biddy 62
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« Reply #401 on: October 23, 2011, 09:41:11 AM »

I'd a nice bet on Camelot. Saw the horse very briefly, everyone around pre parade ring waiting for it coming out of box, comes out of box and straight down the chute to the course, the  dissapointed crowd lets out a awwwww. What a beast pleased it did'nt parade would have gone off at1/2. Think i saw the Derby winner.
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redarmi
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« Reply #402 on: October 23, 2011, 12:41:44 PM »

£15 Stoke +1 1.91
£15 Under 2.5 1.98

No RVP for Arsenal.
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redarmi
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« Reply #403 on: October 23, 2011, 01:17:58 PM »

£25 Fulham @ 7/5

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redarmi
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« Reply #404 on: October 23, 2011, 01:26:54 PM »

£15e/w Vellios FGS (Fulham/everton) @ 9/1 paddys
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