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redarmi
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« Reply #420 on: October 24, 2011, 11:52:50 AM » |
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£20 Marsh Warbler @ 3/1 420 Southwell
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typhoon13
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« Reply #421 on: October 24, 2011, 12:35:16 PM » |
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Red
Have you backed marsh warbler on value or form, thanks
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ACE2M
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« Reply #422 on: October 24, 2011, 12:50:55 PM » |
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Ace
Can get 5/2 with sky bet
thanks. |
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redarmi
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« Reply #423 on: October 24, 2011, 12:51:35 PM » |
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Not really sure I understand the question. A study of form is what leads me to make a value judgement. I never have a bet I don't consider to be value although the components that leads me to that decision change. If what you mean is am I backing it because it is 9/4 elsewhere then no. I would back it at 11/4 for slightly less if i only had access to that price. Not a backer at 5/2 though I don't think as not 100% certain this isn't a sharpener. I understand the stable like the horse as a hurdler.
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typhoon13
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« Reply #424 on: October 24, 2011, 12:53:36 PM » |
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Not really sure I understand the question. A study of form is what leads me to make a value judgement. I never have a bet I don't consider to be value although the components that leads me to that decision change. If what you mean is am I backing it because it is 9/4 elsewhere then no. I would back it at 11/4 for slightly less if i only had access to that price. Not a backer at 5/2 though I don't think as not 100% certain this isn't a sharpener. I understand the stable like the horse as a hurdler.
Thankyou |
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TheChipPrince
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« Reply #425 on: October 24, 2011, 01:16:26 PM » |
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Do you use any of the software for Betfair, eg Bet Angel?
Or do you not really get involved inplay etc
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The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.
RIP- TheChipPrince - $17,165
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redarmi
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« Reply #426 on: October 24, 2011, 01:23:54 PM » |
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I have gruss installed on my laptop and I pay the £8 a month for it. Not sure whether it is worth it as I only really use it when I intend to trade but one click betting and the quick refresh are probably worth £8 a month alone and i should probably get into the habit of using it everytime I bet on Betfair but I don't. I should also teach myself how to use the functions whereby I could write excel spreadsheets and automatically bet but I like control and to be able to mull bets a bit too much for that even though it probably costs me long run.
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Chompy
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« Reply #427 on: October 24, 2011, 01:33:50 PM » |
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Gruss is cheating!
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
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redarmi
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« Reply #428 on: October 24, 2011, 01:44:14 PM » |
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What did you use Chompy?
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Chompy
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« Reply #429 on: October 24, 2011, 01:53:24 PM » |
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Manual, tap de numbers in. Dinosaur apparently  |
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
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redarmi
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« Reply #430 on: October 24, 2011, 01:56:00 PM » |
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This race at Southwell this afternoon is a good example of the kind of things you need to be aware of when pricing events up. My initial prices had Marsh Warbler at 5/2 but I have/had very little idea how accurate that price is because the horse hasn't run since March. If it is fit then that could realistically be as low as 2/1 but if it isn't fit then it could be a genuine 8/1 shot. The fact some money has come for it is reassuring and would potentially make me harden my price into 9/4 allthough the books haven't exactly been knocked over. Of course the yard comes into the calculations too. For some yards a drifter is nothing to worry about, for others it should affect your price massively.
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redarmi
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« Reply #431 on: October 24, 2011, 02:02:58 PM » |
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Manual, tap de numbers in. Dinosaur apparently I don't bet racing in running, tried it a couple of times and realised I was outclassed, but i would have thought that those extra half a second and quicker response time would have been very important in running? |
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redarmi
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« Reply #432 on: October 24, 2011, 02:13:37 PM » |
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£20 Over 17.5 lengths winning distances @ Southwell 7/4 Ladbrokes.
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redarmi
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« Reply #433 on: October 24, 2011, 02:18:27 PM » |
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Does anyone have a Ladbrokes Odds On card? If so have you "upgraded" it so you can bet online or over the phone and deposit and withdraw at your local shop. What, erm, identity requirements do they have?
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doubleup
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« Reply #434 on: October 24, 2011, 02:51:26 PM » |
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£20 Over 17.5 lengths winning distances @ Southwell 7/4 Ladbrokes.
would have thought expected to be about 14.5, so under that more than 50% - how do you work that this bet is value (or is it just an outlier)? |
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