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Horneris
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« Reply #450 on: October 24, 2011, 07:17:33 PM » |
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2 sides i've been opposing in the last few weeks and might well continue too.
I've had a strong opinion all summer that West Ham won't finish in the top 2. Problem is though, they are a lot better away from home imo. They buckle under the pressure at Upton Park and are very opposable at short prices.
I wasn't really interested in a punt tonight but if Brighton get upto around 3.4/3.45 (should'nt) I probably won't have a choice.
One I am already loving for Saturday is Watford at home to Peterborough as outsiders!!!
I know you have had your fingers burnt on them recently but they have created chances at both Leicester and Hull away and I wasn't overly impressed with Pboro on Saturday. They will be without Tomlin too I assume. I can't believe Watford are 2.8 at home, their starting line up isn't even that bad and have drafted in Michael Kightly and Craig Beattie on loan. Pboro create a lot of chances but they cannot be favourites.
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Chompy
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« Reply #451 on: October 24, 2011, 07:20:45 PM » |
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Glglgl backing Watford this weekend sir
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"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
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redarmi
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« Reply #452 on: October 24, 2011, 07:33:24 PM » |
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2 sides i've been opposing in the last few weeks and might well continue too.
I've had a strong opinion all summer that West Ham won't finish in the top 2. Problem is though, they are a lot better away from home imo. They buckle under the pressure at Upton Park and are very opposable at short prices.
I wasn't really interested in a punt tonight but if Brighton get upto around 3.4/3.45 (should'nt) I probably won't have a choice.
One I am already loving for Saturday is Watford at home to Peterborough as outsiders!!!
I know you have had your fingers burnt on them recently but they have created chances at both Leicester and Hull away and I wasn't overly impressed with Pboro on Saturday. They will be without Tomlin too I assume. I can't believe Watford are 2.8 at home, their starting line up isn't even that bad and have drafted in Michael Kightly and Craig Beattie on loan. Pboro create a lot of chances but they cannot be favourites.
Not sure I could have Peterborough as faves at Bristol City nevermind Watford although I know Chompy will disagree. Going to watch first 15 minutes of this game. WH have scored early quite a lot this year...think they are the kind of team that need to score early to keep motivated. They don't like it when things don't got o plan for them. |
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Horneris
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« Reply #453 on: October 24, 2011, 07:49:17 PM » |
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Glglgl backing Watford this weekend sir
Thanks. I don't dislike Peterborough, I backed you at Pompey when you were like 3.6. But under 2/1 at Watford seems wrong, nevermind 8/5 or shorter. |
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redarmi
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« Reply #454 on: October 24, 2011, 07:59:10 PM » |
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£20 Brighton +1/4 1.85 in running sbo.
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doubleup
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« Reply #455 on: October 24, 2011, 09:35:26 PM » |
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£20 Brighton +1/4 1.85 in running sbo.
just greened up in this match after backing wh 1-0 and under 2.5. Is a lot of the activity on these markets bot related? - there was a long injury break and the prices of these tumbled in line with the clock - ignoring the potential of added time. |
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redarmi
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« Reply #456 on: October 24, 2011, 09:43:27 PM » |
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Certainly some of it will be bot related but any decent in running model should have injury time as an input. Mine does.
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doubleup
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« Reply #457 on: October 24, 2011, 09:48:34 PM » |
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Certainly some of it will be bot related but any decent in running model should have injury time as an input. Mine does.
there was 9 mins added, so maybe v long injury break near the end of match messes them up? - I wasn't going to green up as my rough and ready spreadsheet didn't show any value, but both the prices contracted markedly while the guy was getting seen to then stretchered off. |
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redarmi
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« Reply #458 on: October 24, 2011, 10:11:15 PM » |
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£20 Brighton +1/4 1.85 in running sbo.
FFS couldn't someone warn me Beagrie was in the studio....... |
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redarmi
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« Reply #459 on: October 24, 2011, 10:15:49 PM » |
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Certainly some of it will be bot related but any decent in running model should have injury time as an input. Mine does.
there was 9 mins added, so maybe v long injury break near the end of match messes them up? - I wasn't going to green up as my rough and ready spreadsheet didn't show any value, but both the prices contracted markedly while the guy was getting seen to then stretchered off. It is definitely an area where a lot of models fall down especially those that are not that robust. Injuries and breaks in play do tend to see price movements. You get them at  too which is illogical if you think about it. I think people just use those breaks to see what the betting is. I would imagine turnover spikes too and it probably isn't that sharp either although both of those points are just conjecture. |
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redarmi
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« Reply #460 on: October 25, 2011, 12:28:40 AM » |
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£25 India @ 1.71 BF
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Madone
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« Reply #461 on: October 25, 2011, 12:34:55 AM » |
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£25 India @ 1.71 BF
Only just started reading this thread, how many times have you backed India in this series? i've been on them every game so far, couldn't believe England were favs for the 1st game, India are just incred in there own conditions, nobody will beat them in the next 10 years in a odi series minimum, they are that good at home. |
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redarmi
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« Reply #462 on: October 25, 2011, 12:41:00 AM » |
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I think this is the first time. I know I was stupid enough to bet England earlier in it in running but only once. The irony being that I got quite excited about backing an Indian whitewash and then put myself off when there was only 14/1 available. To be fair i think that probably wasn't value even now. I bet tomorrows game 8/13 India 13/8 England and I could only be shorter India.
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Madone
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« Reply #463 on: October 25, 2011, 01:45:27 AM » |
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Im usually a backer of England when there at home but as soon as they go to Asia i can't back them agonst India, i still fancy us to do well against Pakistan and Sri Lanka in the test series after christmas but the odi's and the t20's i have to fancy the home team if im betting game to game.
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Madone
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« Reply #464 on: October 25, 2011, 01:53:13 AM » |
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Im usually a backer of England when there at home but as soon as they go to Asia i can't back them agonst India, i still fancy us to do well against Pakistan and Sri Lanka in the test series after christmas but the odi's and the t20's i have to fancy the home team if im betting game to game.
Pretty much everyone's view on England at the moment but i still fanncy us to win both series this winter, had a small double on it |
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