Diary of a professional punter

[redarmi]

Probably not an ideal time for a bet for most of you but think UCLA @ 11/10+ in the Bowl game tonight is a great price.  Illinois have so many problems and started season 6-0 only to lose their last six games and fire the coach.  Half of the assistant coaches are threatening to boycott game and their best running back is out because of academic reasons.  I think they should be faves and dogs in bowl games are a profitable subset anyway.  Like this one a bit although don't suppose I will get to watch it.

[Marky147]

You weren't missing much not watching the game as it was terrible and UCLA looked like the team in disarray. It was actually painful to watch and I was glad when it was over even though we lost

[Marky147]

As a disclaimer, it is the first college game I've ever watched and I might have been expecting too much based on having only watched NFL games before.

Hopefully someone else will have watched it too and be able to offer up a more informed rundown on the game

[doubleup]

Should probably add that some research I have done suggests that figure is different depending on what leagues you bet on.  I bet primarily on English leagues but an academic friend who did his phd on this is of the opinion that no adjustments at all should be made for Scottish Prem and Dutch leagues and quite a bit more should be made for leagues like Italy and France.  It is a complicated area for sure.  Basically if the betfair correct score market looks about right to your matrix you have made the right adjustments (assuming you agree with the goal and match odds of course)

http://pda.physorg.com/goaldifference-teamsfitness-fitnesslevel_news186994712.html

These guys seem to think that poisson is generally correct however the anomalies are between draws and 1 goal differences (have you read any similar papers?).  This seems to be correct.  I looked at 6.5k premier/championship matches and the under 2.5 was 3446 and excel predicts 3448, however the split of results is out with more 1-1, 0-0 and less 1-0, 0-1.   

 

[redarmi]

As a disclaimer, it is the first college game I've ever watched and I might have been expecting too much based on having only watched NFL games before.

Hopefully someone else will have watched it too and be able to offer up a more informed rundown on the game

I actually watched it in the end.  It was poor stuff.

[redarmi]

http://pda.physorg.com/goaldifference-teamsfitness-fitnesslevel_news186994712.html

These guys seem to think that poisson is generally correct however the anomalies are between draws and 1 goal differences (have you read any similar papers?).  This seems to be correct.  I looked at 6.5k premier/championship matches and the under 2.5 was 3446 and excel predicts 3448, however the split of results is out with more 1-1, 0-0 and less 1-0, 0-1.   

Yes that is my thinking too.  EPL and Champs is definitely seeing more 0-0's and 1-1's so needs an adjustment.  I looked at 22k games across like 12 leagues in total and there was a general correlation but some leagues, generally the higher scoring ones, don't neccesarily show it.

[redarmi]

Had a decent bet on Dzeko to be the first goalscorer today @ 5.8 on Betfair.  Also layed Citeh @ 1.70.  Apparently no Aguero, Silva or Balotelli.

[Marky147]

As a disclaimer, it is the first college game I've ever watched and I might have been expecting too much based on having only watched NFL games before.

Hopefully someone else will have watched it too and be able to offer up a more informed rundown on the game

I actually watched it in the end.  It was poor stuff.

Ah glad it wasn't just poor to my untrained eye

[redarmi]

not sure I agree with that one.

edit: unless he's on pens? But iirc there's no documented taker bar Balo/Aguero

In this team I have him in for 30% of their goals, maybe more to be honest, and they are a 0.90 goal faves with goals @ 2.60.  That makes him a 5.40 shot conservatively?  what are your numbers?

[redarmi]

Fair enough....had it in my mind I should have been backing Yaya too but Dzeko was my first thought.....I normally have him in for 28% anyway when he plays but not that confident on that number.

[redarmi]

Went to the Miami Heat game tonight.  Never ceases to amaze me what a different experience going to sport is here against back at home.  Amazing entertainment spectacle but seems to me that the biggest excitement for most of the crowd is when they throw T-shirts into the crowd rather than anything that actually happens on the court.

[Chompy]

Latest Ayr abandonment reasonage for your amusement Redarmi...

"The problem is in fact a tree that is about to fall which is close to a Racetech truck.

"On health and safety grounds they had to move, but it meant we would have had no scanner and no PA system. You are not allowed to race without a PA system and that is why we've had to abandon, not because of the wind"

[redarmi]

I didn't even bother to look at the Ayr card....place is a joke.

[mondatoo]

Thoughts on the Everton game tonight ? Pretty suprised at how this has been priced up, really don't see how Everton are 1/2 here when they've struggled to score goals all season, really feel Bolton are very backable at 7/1, clearly they're having a bad season but I just don't think there's that big a gap between the two.

[redarmi]

It does look big but a couple of things put me off.  Firstly, Jussi Jaaskelainen is a doubt and secondly, the question marks about Cahills move.  Also have a feeling Donovan will be a big boost for Everton and might just solve their scoring problem albeit temporarily.