Diary of a professional punter

[The Camel]

See no trading software needed, just random guess haha

Found it. Home to Getafe in 2008. Might possibly have been 1.03-1.04 pre match.

[The Camel]

Cheers fellas. Got some good reading material methinks.

Whilst we're all here, what was it (those of you who did it seriously) that you all bet on?

Feel free to give a life story, I'm intrigued!

Edit: Sorry for thread hijacking redarmi...

Bet on everything, any time.

Odds compiler for Blue Sq for about 3 years when they launched is the only job I have ever lasted more than a week at (literally).

Apart from that gambled for a living for 24 years.

[redarmi]

1/3-1/4? If they were genuinely  1.02/1.03 on bf

Betfair was 7/4 barca 2/1 the draw 9/4 the minnows

The one bookmaker who lays me a bet was 2/7 barca 7/2 draw 7/1 minnows.

I nearly broke the rule of my gambling life and became an arber for one night only lol.

Instead I had a lump on the 7/4 and saved on the draw.

My, ahem, poisson model makes it something like 6/5 Barca 7/2 The dog and 2/1 the draw but that probably underestimates goals at this point in the game.  At a guess I would say that goals expectancy increases massively but supremacy, as a proportion of goals can't go up that much because it is already massively high.  Maybe something like 4/6 Barca 11/2 the dog and 7/2 the draw but I wouldn't be confident at all.

[bobby1]

Have you ever had a blog Camel? Judging by your posts it would make for fantastic reading...

http://camelpoker.blogspot.com/

Some fun stuff in there if you look far enough back.

Was one of the best Keith, more updates please!

[Matt.NFFC.]

Just to go slightly off topic here guys, sorry, I have a quick question for you pro's as my maths is terrible, and I'm just getting into this back/lay stuff.

Just looking on B365 and they have the usual standard offer of a free £50 bet providing the odds are better than 1/2 on.

Now, say I bet on a tennis match where the prices are 4/6 and 11/10 the players, what do I need to do on Betfair to secure the free cash?  Just lay the same runner???

Have I got this all wrong??  Have just got this thought of a bit of free cash going through my head at present.

Reading through this thread makes for interesting reading and the knowledge of some of you guys is mind blowing.

[redarmi]

Cheers fellas. Got some good reading material methinks.

Whilst we're all here, what was it (those of you who did it seriously) that you all bet on?

Feel free to give a life story, I'm intrigued!

Edit: Sorry for thread hijacking redarmi...

I bet on the same as Keith....basically everything, actually ironically tennis I have very little interest in but I would bet on it if I got a good card regularly but I never have really, but my main profits come from American football, football and racing.  Done this on and off for about 12 years but had some fairly lengthy periods in employment in that period working for bookies but punting full time for last five years or so but sometimes got a salry because was punting for someone else as well as myself....its all in the first few pages of diary actually.  Dont worry about the derail....is good to have a bit of life in diary again and great to have so many nowledgable people around to debate with.

[redarmi]

Just to go slightly off topic here guys, sorry, I have a quick question for you pro's as my maths is terrible, and I'm just getting into this back/lay stuff.

Just looking on B365 and they have the usual standard offer of a free £50 bet providing the odds are better than 1/2 on.

Now, say I bet on a tennis match where the prices are 4/6 and 11/10 the players, what do I need to do on Betfair to secure the free cash?  Just lay the same runner???

Have I got this all wrong??  Have just got this thought of a bit of free cash going through my head at present.

Reading through this thread makes for interesting reading and the knowledge of some of you guys is mind blowing.

Yes it is free money if you just lay the guy you have bet with 365 or simply bet the other guy but bear in mind it is only free equity because your free bet can lose if that makes sense.

[doubleup]

Just to go slightly off topic here guys, sorry, I have a quick question for you pro's as my maths is terrible, and I'm just getting into this back/lay stuff.

Just looking on B365 and they have the usual standard offer of a free £50 bet providing the odds are better than 1/2 on.

Now, say I bet on a tennis match where the prices are 4/6 and 11/10 the players, what do I need to do on Betfair to secure the free cash?  Just lay the same runner???

Have I got this all wrong??  Have just got this thought of a bit of free cash going through my head at present.

Reading through this thread makes for interesting reading and the knowledge of some of you guys is mind blowing.

You actually want a free bet to lose if you are laying off.  As you don't get the stake just the winnings.  

[Solaris]

Cheers fellas. Got some good reading material methinks.

Whilst we're all here, what was it (those of you who did it seriously) that you all bet on?

Feel free to give a life story, I'm intrigued!

Edit: Sorry for thread hijacking redarmi...

I bet on the same as Keith....basically everything, actually ironically tennis I have very little interest in but I would bet on it if I got a good card regularly but I never have really, but my main profits come from American football, football and racing.  Done this on and off for about 12 years but had some fairly lengthy periods in employment in that period working for bookies but punting full time for last five years or so but sometimes got a salry because was punting for someone else as well as myself....its all in the first few pages of diary actually.  Dont worry about the derail....is good to have a bit of life in diary again and great to have so many nowledgable people around to debate with.

Will re-read the thread in that case.

Find the bit about betting on football interesting as I met a professional punter on a football website who ironically advocated completely staying away from betting on football. I'm sure titbeam could confirm this. Difficult to question him as he made a bucket load of money betting on tennis and US sports (and was willing to prove it by posting P+L's).

Would it be far to say he was quite clueless when it comes to football betting as you both seem to do it? The very basic way in which I understood his logic was that there were too many variables and that he didn't like the fact there was 3 outcomes as opposed to the normal two with US sports. I might be doing him a disservice here as it's been a while so I might be misremembering his reasoning, but he definitely didn't think betting on football was a profitable idea.

[doubleup]

1/3-1/4? If they were genuinely  1.02/1.03 on bf

Betfair was 7/4 barca 2/1 the draw 9/4 the minnows

The one bookmaker who lays me a bet was 2/7 barca 7/2 draw 7/1 minnows.

I nearly broke the rule of my gambling life and became an arber for one night only lol.

Instead I had a lump on the 7/4 and saved on the draw.

My, ahem, poisson model makes it something like 6/5 Barca 7/2 The dog and 2/1 the draw but that probably underestimates goals at this point in the game.  At a guess I would say that goals expectancy increases massively but supremacy, as a proportion of goals can't go up that much because it is already massively high.  Maybe something like 4/6 Barca 11/2 the dog and 7/2 the draw but I wouldn't be confident at all.

lol mine completely fails as I didn't go beyond scores of 6-6 (as they would rarely occur in the kind of matches I bet on) so it just can't cope with the goal rate that would be required.  

[The Camel]

Cheers fellas. Got some good reading material methinks.

Whilst we're all here, what was it (those of you who did it seriously) that you all bet on?

Feel free to give a life story, I'm intrigued!

Edit: Sorry for thread hijacking redarmi...

I bet on the same as Keith....basically everything, actually ironically tennis I have very little interest in but I would bet on it if I got a good card regularly but I never have really, but my main profits come from American football, football and racing.  Done this on and off for about 12 years but had some fairly lengthy periods in employment in that period working for bookies but punting full time for last five years or so but sometimes got a salry because was punting for someone else as well as myself....its all in the first few pages of diary actually.  Dont worry about the derail....is good to have a bit of life in diary again and great to have so many nowledgable people around to debate with.

Will re-read the thread in that case.

Find the bit about betting on football interesting as I met a professional punter on a football website who ironically advocated completely staying away from betting on football. I'm sure titbeam could confirm this. Difficult to question him as he made a bucket load of money betting on tennis and US sports (and was willing to prove it by posting P+L's).

Would it be far to say he was quite clueless when it comes to football betting as you both seem to do it? The very basic way in which I understood his logic was that there were too many variables and that he didn't like the fact there was 3 outcomes as opposed to the normal two with US sports. I might be doing him a disservice here as it's been a while so I might be misremembering his reasoning, but he definitely didn't think betting on football was a profitable idea.

I have made good money betting football especially the last couple of years.

There are a couple of huge punters who completely dominate the market and they make their bets based on computer models.

If I have an opinion on a team which differs to their model, I punt them (almost blindly) after they have moved the markets.

For example this season their model has overrated Liverpool massively.. I have opposed them almsot every week since about match 6 because they have been overbet.

[redarmi]

lol mine completely fails as I didn't go beyond scores of 6-6 (as they would rarely occur in the kind of matches I bet on) so it just can't cope with the goal rate that would be required. 

I started with the, slightly suspect,  assumption of a 3.90 supremacy and 4.00 goals and just took it to 60 minutes to come up with the prices which is obviously wrong because, I guess, goals is now like 8.00 or maybe higher for the rest of the game but I don't see how suprem can get much higher than 7.80 within that....maybe 7.9 but it doesn't make much difference.  TBH I don't knwo what the right price is but it kind of doesn't matter because it sure isn't 7/4 Barca....any way you look at it they are shorter than Evens I think unless something else significant has happened in match like 3 sendings off and messi playing with broken leg!!

[redarmi]

There are a couple of huge punters who completely dominate the market and they make their bets based on computer models.

If I have an opinion on a team which differs to their model, I punt them (almost blindly) after they have moved the markets.

For example this season their model has overrated Liverpool massively.. I have opposed them almsot every week since about match 6 because they have been overbet.

This is interesting.  I was once told by a decent source that a shrewd punter (northern ex sheff dogs bookie) bet against the move whenever TB bet and was making 1% a year.  I was initially surprised but having met some of the bookies out in Asia and heard the reverential tones they talk about Tony in I wouldn't be surprised if they move too far.  A lot of them honestly believe he fixes matches or is some kind of witch doctor!!!! Most also follow him blind at any price which adds to the movement.

[The Camel]

There are a couple of huge punters who completely dominate the market and they make their bets based on computer models.

If I have an opinion on a team which differs to their model, I punt them (almost blindly) after they have moved the markets.

For example this season their model has overrated Liverpool massively.. I have opposed them almsot every week since about match 6 because they have been overbet.

This is interesting.  I was once told by a decent source that a shrewd punter (northern ex sheff dogs bookie) bet against the move whenever TB bet and was making 1% a year.  I was initially surprised but having met some of the bookies out in Asia and heard the reverential tones they talk about Tony in I wouldn't be surprised if they move too far.  A lot of them honestly believe he fixes matches or is some kind of witch doctor!!!! Most also follow him blind at any price which adds to the movement.

Actually surprised he's not making more than 1%.

When the Asian line is betting to such a tiny percentage, after TB has a big bet on, the line often moves way too much.

Still rather know what he's backing before he puts the bets on than afterwards though!

[redarmi]

Yeah you also have to make assumption it is him betting or MB which is normally the case for a big move but it could be a big, breaking injury or something which is a disaster.