Boldies betfair afternoon

[boldie]

Must admit that it does have my mind whirring a bit though.....there simply has to be a blind punting strategy that could be profitable for the next couple of months but I can't quite figure it what it is.  I am pretty sure the female jockeys will be disadvantaged but they tend to be a bit underbet anyway.  The physically stronger jockeys should be at an advantage but are they the bigger guys liek Richard Hughes or does making the weight sap them a bit and should I be looking at the smaller, stockier jockeys?

Lay all Tony McCoy's rides for the next few months knowing that there won't be a "McCoy special" coming up might be something.

Pretty sure William Buick, after he serves his ban, will be a jockey to follow.

I don't know, I don't like the rules too much myself TBH, but it won't change so we'll just have to deal with it.

 Very dissapointed in McCoy and Dettori though who first said "Yeah that's a great idea" and are now saying that the idea is shit.
If they, and other jockeys, had thought about these plans first and voiced their opinions before the new rules came in maybe the rules would be slightly different.

I mainly think the financial punishment is not really fair. Jockey gets a ban and loses his riding fee..but trainers and owners get paid (And big name jocks are on a retainer anyways). What about the trainer and owners of a horse finishing 2nd to a horse whose jockey broke the rules? What about the jockey on the 2nd who will now get less money for finishing behind someone who broke the rules?

[redarmi]

I had blind laying McCoys rides in mind actually.  He is massively overbet anyway imo so I doubt there is much downside although my one reservation is that the margins in NH racing are a bit bigger.

[boldie]

Yeah that's what I'm thinking. McCoy is a supreme jockey but he does rely on his strength quite a bit to get horses that ussually wouldn't win to win. Noone is better at that than he is but it might take him a while to adjust to these rules.


This shows the issue racing has with whip use. I can't see clearly in the clip whether the horse actually moved away because the jockey was going to give it a tap, or a whack, but the article (aimed at non-horse racing people) and the comments below it show how much people actually know about the use of whips in horseracing.

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/blogs/world-of-sport/article/72100/

[mondatoo]

I had blind laying McCoys rides in mind actually.  He is massively overbet anyway imo so I doubt there is much downside although my one reservation is that the margins in NH racing are a bit bigger.

I know very little about horse racing and before I deluded myself into thinking I had any kind of a clue I would always just back which ever horse McCoy was on.

[redarmi]

No doubt he is an amazing jockey and probably the best ever and there was a time when he was an apprentice when you could make money betting him blind but everyone knows it now and it leads to him being overbet especially later in the season during the bigger races.  I think it is fair to say that whilst he is very good he isn't a world class big race jockey.  If I owned the favourite in the Gold Cup I would pick Ruby Walsh over him everytime and I am not even sure that is a particularly controversial view anymore.

[boldie]

I think it was Tom Segal that said "If you want a jockey to ride a horse for your life you want McCoy, if you want the best jockey in the UK on him you want Walsh" I don't think he's wrong. Also think the whip rules will hit McCoy harder than they will someone like Ruby.

[Dubai]

Couldnt lay McCoy blind- nothing to do with prices or expected ROI- theres another factor that people dont consider- "The tilt factor"

Cold horrible day at Newton Abott- McCoy smashes the hell out of some horrid quirky beast, gets it home, commentators rejoice "McCoy is a genius, punters nationwide rejoicing"- watching and hearing that just aint worth the money

[boldie]

Couldnt lay McCoy blind- nothing to do with prices or expected ROI- theres another factor that people dont consider- "The tilt factor"

Cold horrible day at Newton Abott- McCoy smashes the hell out of some horrid quirky beast, gets it home, commentators rejoice "McCoy is a genius, punters nationwide rejoicing"- watching and hearing that just aint worth the money

lol, that's a fair point.

[redarmi]

Richard Hughes has handed his license in in protest.  Interesting times

[Teacake]

Is there gonna be any Jockeys left to ride horses after all these bans they are dishing out?

No - it is becoming ridiculous and just goes to show how utterly retarded the people running racing are.  Natalie Gemelova had one ride today and as a result of hitting a horse that came 2nd too much she has got a seven day ban and lost her riding fee for the day.  Next time she is on a horse that has a chance of winning if she really goes for it do you think she will be thinking about getting your horse home or whether she is going to have to go without wages for a week?  I think what might happen is that the bigger owners and yards might be able to persuade their jocks to take the occasional ban if it means getting their horses/gambles home and the ordinary owner and punter will get screwed.

Had to feel sorry for her, she was hardly even hitting her Horse, of the 7 about 2 or 3 were taps to keep the Horse focused in the finish.Going by her Black Eye it ain't been the best week for her.
What the chances of the Jockeys going on strike over this?

Pretty good if Hughes is anything to go by but it looks like a bit of a heat of the moment hissy fit given the timing.

[Snowball]

Jockey Strike NAP

[Chompy]

Hughes is such a prima donna

[boldie]

Hughes is such a prima donna

Pretty much this. Although I agree with Hughes that the rules are a joke he basically threw a hissy fit. It is interesting though that the BHA announced yesterday, before hughes chucked it, that they will review the rules in light of comments made by the jockeys. That does go to show that these rules were implemented too fast, that they haven't done enough consultation and that they were basically not very well thought out.

I understand that high profile abuses of the whip, like in G1 races and the National, are bad for the sport. However, the sport never even bothered explaining that those jockeys were punished for those abuses and what a riding ban entails for jockeys (How much money they lose etc.).
Instead there has been a massive overreaction to pander to people who contribute nothing to the sport. Sure, you can say "But it could put off future race-goers" but I have yet to see any proof of this.
The people shouting the loudest after the National are the same people that think the National should be banned.
The whip rule has been altered massively, the National fences have been amended again...all to make sure those that contribute nothing to the sport at the moment are happy.

What about owners who pay good money to keep horses in training? Most owners out there don't make money from owning a horse, quite the opposite. What about punters who, in case anyone has forgotten, are the life-blood of the sport? Without racing's current public there wouldn't be any horse racing.

Richard Hughes throwing his toys out of the pram won't do racing any good, especially not right before the biggest race day of the UK calendar. But an awful lot of blame for this lies with the BHA who wanted to make sure that on the biggest race-day of the flat season they could brag about how they changed the rules.

[kukushkin88]

I think the 3.20 at Cheltenham is an interesting race from the new whip rules/taking on McCoy perpspective. Russian War (6/1) is an absolute bridle horse who has travelled beautifully everytime I´ve seen him run over hurdles but he just instantly stops if you hit him, he has very rarely come under pressure over hurdles but because he´s been chasing and hasn´t taken to it at all it we´ve seen what happens when the jockey goes for the whip and it´s not good. McCoy is on the 11/4 favourite and that looks about right/a little short. The rest of the field look pretty weak to me. The annoying thing in the race is that Russian War goes off a mark 14 lbs higher than his last run over hurdles, he hacked up but 14 lbs is a huge amount of additional weight. It´s not possible to be confident about him with all that weight but he must be worth a small e/w interest and I do think we´ll learn something about how the new rules influence races involving McCoy.

The other match up I was thinking of although it´s entirely hypothetical with the race taking place in the Breeders Cup Mile. (I thought it was worth mentioning to highlight the angle I think it might be possible to exploit). Strong Suit vs Goldikova. A bridle horse in Strong Suit vs a horse that always finds loads for maximum pressure in Goldikova.

fwiw at first I quite liked Richard Hughes decision to stand up for something he thought was wrong, people just accept things that are wrong far too readily on the whole imo. Sadly when he was interviewed on the BBC he sounded like a spoilt child who was having a tantrum and didn´t present any sort coherent argument to justify handing in his licence.

[boldie]

Yeah, Hughes is not the most eloquent of jockeys. His main point is a valid one though. Which jockey will do their best in a 2k race at Kempton when they know they can miss the entire breeder's cup meeting (where there are no strange whip rules BTW)? And which owners can put those jockeys on their horses..which punters can back those runners?

The more I think about it the worse these rules become (and let's remember this review is only in place because of 2 incidents).

There is simply nothing to suggest that the non-racing public will flock to the race course or start having bets because of these new rules (or even banning of the whip).